Gerrymandering or Geography?: How Democrats Won the Popular Vote but Lost the Congress in 2012 (doi:10.7910/DVN/24354)

View:

Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
Entire Codebook

Document Description
Citation
Title:	Gerrymandering or Geography?: How Democrats Won the Popular Vote but Lost the Congress in 2012
Identification Number:	doi:10.7910/DVN/24354
Distributor:	Harvard Dataverse
Date of Distribution:	2014-01-22
Version:	1
Bibliographic Citation:	Goedert, Nicholas, 2014, "Gerrymandering or Geography?: How Democrats Won the Popular Vote but Lost the Congress in 2012", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/24354, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:5:+NyAuf86FhhtePLctd2MFg== [fileUNF]
Study Description
Citation
Title:	Gerrymandering or Geography?: How Democrats Won the Popular Vote but Lost the Congress in 2012
Identification Number:	doi:10.7910/DVN/24354
Authoring Entity:	Goedert, Nicholas (Washington University in St. Louis)
Date of Production:	2014-01
Distributor:	Harvard Dataverse
Distributor:	Harvard Dataverse Network
Access Authority:	Nicholas Goedert
Date of Deposit:	2014-01-21
Date of Distribution:	2014-01
Holdings Information:	https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/24354
Study Scope
Keywords:	Gerrymandering, Democrats, Election
Abstract:	This article attempts to untie whether the antimajoritarian outcome in the 2012 U.S congressional elections was due more to deliberate partisan gerrymandering or asymmetric geographic distribution of partisans. The note first estimates an expected seats-votes slope by fitting past election results to a probit curve, and then measures how well parties performed in 2012 compared to this expectation in each state under various redistricting institutions. I find that while both parties exceeded expectations when controlling the redistricting process, a persistent pro-Republican bias in is also present even when maps are drawn by courts or bipartisan agreement. On net, it appears that this persistent bias is a greater factor in the nationwide disparity between seats and votes than intentional gerrymandering.
Methodology and Processing
Sources Statement
Data Access
Notes:	<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>
Other Study Description Materials
File Description--f2455447
File: 2012CongressionalResults_GoedertR&P2014.tab
	Number of cases: 50 No. of variables per record: 24 Type of File: text/tab-separated-values
Notes:	UNF:5:YjyYG87bfRGGyhAMiri5UA==

File Description--f2455446
File: HistoricalCongressResults_GoedertR&P2014.tab
	Number of cases: 8700 No. of variables per record: 36 Type of File: text/tab-separated-values
Notes:	UNF:5:G02jLeLCRHaWDkyDBEmC1w==

Variable Description
List of Variables:	State GerryParty DemVote - Mean Democratic voter GOPVote - Mean Republican Vote DemSeats - Seats won by Democrats GOPSeats - Seats won by Republicans DemExp - Expected democratic seats from probit estimate SeatDiff - Difference between expected Dem seats and actual Dem seats RepG - Republican Gerrymander BCG - Bipartisan or Court Gerrymander DemG - Democratic Gerrymander Hisp - Top Hispanic State dummy Urban - Urbanization (2010 Census) PercDiff - Seat Diff as percentage of total seats exclude - Deep South or less than 3 districts PercHisp - Statewide percent Hispanic (2010 Census) PercBlack - Statewide percent Black (2010 census) seats NP - Nonpartisan commission gerrymander UrbanXseats DeepSouth PercHispXDeepSouth PercBlackXDeepSouth South year - Year state - State cd - CD redistricteddate - Redistricted Date totalvote - Total Vote gopvote - GOP Vote gopcandidate - GOP Candidate demvote - Dem Vote demcandidate - Dem Candidate open - Open Seat dummy plurality - Plurality pickup - PickUp gopseat - Seat won by Republican (dummy) gopmargin - GOP Margin presvote - Recent statewide presidential election results in state relative to nation popularvote - National congressional poplar vote in year winner - Winner south - Southern state dummy decade postVRA - Post-1991 dummy postVRAsouth MeanGOPSeat - % of seats in state won by GOP weight - Number of CDs StateGOPMargin - Mean GOP margin in congressional elections for state s70 - 1970's dummy s80 - 1980's dummy s90 - 1990's dummy s00 - 2000's dummy s70XStateGOPMargin s80XStateGOPMargin s90XStateGOPMargin s00XStateGOPMargin southXStateGOPMargin postVRAsouthXStateGOPMargin preVRAsouth preVRAsouthXStateGOPMargin
Variables
State
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:L8FYD9Jlg1TM7vOmqd8G/A==
GerryParty
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:EJd/qmThaUFNJvoA/G+jOw==
Mean Democratic voter
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:05e5VE5s7VLiuTAB5i4xCA==
Mean Republican Vote
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:xgS04rfy+OhfFqLXq0snhg==
Seats won by Democrats
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:iOIZI1Ptr7uoPpkwvGoDvA==
Seats won by Republicans
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:oBnzafzOjCMVcsbnwa6kXw==
Expected democratic seats from probit estimate
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:Wk2X0xwMZRH0MO5JImpbIQ==
Difference between expected Dem seats and actual Dem seats
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:JkUmIh8pvCrx7UKBsh4dyQ==
Republican Gerrymander
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:LIG/pP8Y6N2ciyaCnk1UcA==
Bipartisan or Court Gerrymander
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:dwMz68GxTpps/ldUAeAL3w==
Democratic Gerrymander
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:llPsQDe0C29WD6sucKy0lg==
Top Hispanic State dummy
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:M6zS+GyGAlx5lRIZlkcJLQ==
Urbanization (2010 Census)
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:7C/wmH1BADCIikfU+BCkXg==
Seat Diff as percentage of total seats
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:MQNTT6CKSZJMCNQMHSefUw==
Deep South or less than 3 districts
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:3JRl8hWLvyIozg/okI4lUw==
Statewide percent Hispanic (2010 Census)
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:0xEb8OfN0TRMUMVbb7hV/A==
Statewide percent Black (2010 census)
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:USH3qeJOuJ/trPzMzX1t3g==
seats
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:7kfaK1FFFM+BiaarodLmSQ==
Nonpartisan commission gerrymander
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:yD0jSCaC2F+aPbwOb6jzrw==
UrbanXseats
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:zfbT3ilMu1beU/7O+wa9Mw==
DeepSouth
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:aw+EBYDO5PbM4EMqIRviIg==
PercHispXDeepSouth
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:sw20SWqExMBYWitMvkciPA==
PercBlackXDeepSouth
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:BplDsfTOlV1b30s72+DDjw==
South
f2455447 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:Y8IbMf3aFW3gTRCufQhuUA==
Year
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:E7A4dpi4e5RsULMTe1O1Ww==
State
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:NljMmlshipQ8c+PksCQuEQ==
CD
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:iq+O+JnXSEl5LHSOHbLmmw==
Redistricted Date
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:/gCt52A6NBQ7m0I32++WwQ==
Total Vote
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:xVp4MoFRKuZI/wTSEcrhyA==
GOP Vote
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:kALquXuZqlICW7BiW+YNZA==
GOP Candidate
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:6dkcb8jpXBMP/xbxUhf54Q==
Dem Vote
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:WwupBDJBQvVi4evCs6ZGRg==
Dem Candidate
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:qs8+BK7nILGTw7cAWvFNQw==
Open Seat dummy
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:op4WUDJQRCdBNDi5yJ94Lw==
Plurality
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:icBBFvP7fhf1Vitok0z05Q==
PickUp
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:ZQ8OilJRt+oUjnCf//ZbtQ==
Seat won by Republican (dummy)
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:YaKmq8omignAIwDdkil3+A==
GOP Margin
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:RqnsyizjSn+BwBySopPT9w==
Recent statewide presidential election results in state relative to nation
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:XNPvNlMb9q3rW3xKQBYwJA==
National congressional poplar vote in year
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:B9yXAVpJMObvVrvzjgYrdQ==
Winner
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: character Notes: UNF:5:6UtyWVXuIN5WZr2UyquO3A==
Southern state dummy
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:JqgHAoWqmU00wRehG3YVRg==
decade
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:FMP5bj0j6TJECIhjFaDvZA==
Post-1991 dummy
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:7BdjzY8wVDREXsSBA100Zw==
postVRAsouth
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:hwdCC52BbQ8vNtRcOttERw==
% of seats in state won by GOP
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:1u3HOEgFE/LHCzZtsiaiCQ==
Number of CDs
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:olYuYVARwODSqtYWi2btrw==
Mean GOP margin in congressional elections for state
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:N9NSbC41n0ApJK9nWfhfYw==
1970's dummy
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:YyXHBxVjNX08aXyqjbGAcQ==
1980's dummy
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:+Q73OPLoGTEko0DZDhz2RA==
1990's dummy
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:xBNz1jWWBXaEVcX1HKplRw==
2000's dummy
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:WB43GFvGWcpRdnPKIJHGOQ==
s70XStateGOPMargin
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:gwCyRJxShaqk5XkajlUmaQ==
s80XStateGOPMargin
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:iCPC/Y7zVcHlCGFcQz6OLA==
s90XStateGOPMargin
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:LwKAmYuP5xU8rV2fXy0ZNA==
s00XStateGOPMargin
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:bap2+QQ9c1spjEkronxYww==
southXStateGOPMargin
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:liSuoYpubvZGB+JejaJ71g==
postVRAsouthXStateGOPMargin
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:jlQKhtdlgkZeKcVNKzKa8g==
preVRAsouth
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:PchyFcMp0nnsb+d0RyvYJA==
preVRAsouthXStateGOPMargin
f2455446 Location:	Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:w2qplMILWda/kZKEXDqRPA==
Other Study-Related Materials
Label:	GoedertR&P2014_Table2.do
Text:	This do-file works with the "2012CongressionalResults" file to produce Table 2 in the article
Notes:	text/x-stata-syntax; charset=US-ASCII
Other Study-Related Materials
Label:	GoedertR&P2014_TableA1.do
Text:	This do file works with the "Historical" data file (Congressional elections 1972-2010) to produce Table A1 and Figure A1, and that data is used to create Figure 1 in the article.
Notes:	text/x-stata-syntax; charset=US-ASCII