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Part 1: Document Description
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/28106 |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Date of Distribution: |
2015-01-05 |
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Version: |
1 |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Karol, David; Miguel, Edward, 2015, "Replication data for: The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/28106, Harvard Dataverse, V1 |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/28106 |
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Authoring Entity: |
Karol, David |
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Miguel, Edward |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse Network |
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Date of Deposit: |
2014-12-09 |
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Date of Distribution: |
2014-12-09 |
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Holdings Information: |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/28106 |
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Study Scope |
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Keywords: |
Social Sciences, Political economy, Conflict |
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Abstract: |
Many contend that President Bush's reelection and increased vote share in 2004 prove that the Iraq War was either electorally irrelevant or aided him. We present contrary evidence. Focusing on the change in Bush's 2004 showing compared to 2000, we discover that Iraq casualties from a state significantly depressed the President's vote share there. We infer that were it not for the approximately 10,000 U.S. dead and wounded by Election Day, Bush would have won nearly 2% more of the national popular vote, carrying several additional states and winning decisively. Such a result would have been close to forecasts based on models that did not include war impacts. Casualty effects are largest in "blue" states. In contrast, National Guard/Reservist call-ups had no impact beyond the main casualty effect. We discuss implications for both the election modeling enterprise and the debate over the "casualty sensitivity" of the U.S. public. |
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Methodology and Processing |
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Sources Statement |
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Data Access |
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Notes: |
Terms of Data: 1. To use the data set solely for research purposes, including statistical reporting and analysis. The database cannot be used for commercial ends, nor can it be sold 2. To maintain a secure computing environment for storage and use of these data sets and any data sets derived from it. Users agree not to share these data with, or provide copies of these data to, any other person or organization and to return or destroy these data sets, and any derivative data files, upon request from administrators. 3. To obtain relevant IRB and possibly other required approvals before using data. |
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Other Study Description Materials |
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Related Publications |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Karol, David, and Edward Miguel. 2007. "The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election." Journal of Politics 69 (3): 633-648. |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Karol, David, and Edward Miguel. 2007. "The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election." Journal of Politics 69 (3): 633-648. |
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Label: |
Data.7z |
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Text: |
Full set of replication files in 7z format. |
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Notes: |
application/x-7z-compressed |