Replication data for: Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in US Social Security Administration Forecasts (doi:10.7910/DVN/28122)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
Entire Codebook

Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication data for: Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in US Social Security Administration Forecasts

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/28122

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2015-05-08

Version:

Bibliographic Citation:

Kashin, Konstantin; King, Gary; Soneji, Samir, 2015, "Replication data for: Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in US Social Security Administration Forecasts", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/28122, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:5:1oerGFXQ0Bu9bcMFU5/t2A== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication data for: Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in US Social Security Administration Forecasts

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/28122

Authoring Entity:

Kashin, Konstantin

King, Gary (Harvard University)

Soneji, Samir (Harvard University)

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Deposit:

2014-12-10

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/28122

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences

Abstract:

We offer an evaluation of the Social Security Administration demographic and financial forecasts used to assess the long-term solvency of the Social Security Trust Funds. This same forecasting methodology is also used in evaluating policy proposals put forward by Congress to modify the Social Security program. Ours is the first evaluation to compare the SSA forecasts with observed truth; for example, we compare forecasts made in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s with outcomes that are now available. We find that Social Security Administration forecasting errors—as evaluated by how accurate the forecasts turned out to be—were approximately unbiased until 2000 and then became systematically biased afterward, and increasingly so over time. Also, most of the forecasting errors since 2000 are in the same direction, consistently misleading users of the forecasts to conclude that the Social Security Trust Funds are in better financial shape than turns out to be the case. Finally, the Social Security Administration's informal uncertainty intervals appear to have become increasingly inaccurate since 2000. At present, the Office of the Chief Actuary, at the Social Security Administration, does not reveal in full how its forecasts are made. Every future Trustees Report, without exception, should include a routine evaluation of all prior forecasts, and a discussion of what forecasting mistakes were made, what was learned from the mistakes, and what actions might be taken to improve forecasts going forward. And the Social Security Administration and its Office of the Chief Actuary should follow best practices in academia and many other parts of government and make their forecasting procedures public and replicable, and should calculate and report calibrated uncertainty intervals for all forecasts. <br /><br /> See also: <a href="http://gking.harvard.edu/ssa" target="_blank">Evaluating U.S. Social Security Administration Forecasts,</a> <a href="http://gking.harvard.edu/category/research-interests/applications/mortality-studies" target="_blank">Mortality Studies</a>

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

This dataset is made available without information on how it can be used. You should communicate with the Contact(s) specified before use.

Other Study Description Materials

Related Publications

Citation

Title:

Kashin, Konstantin, King, Gary, and Soneji, Samir. 2015. “Systematic Bias and Nontransparency in Us Social Security Administration Forecasts.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 29 (2). <a href="http://j.mp/1ITZ6Mw" target="_blank">Link to article</a>

Bibliographic Citation:

File Description--f2510044

File: demog_loess_boot.tab

Number of cases: 481
No. of variables per record: 5
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:BUbCBvoYzy1PWQh6FET4HA==

Table with confidence intervals around the LOESS lines fit in Figures 4 and 15 of analysis.pdf. Calculated using loess_boot.R.

File Description--f2510052

File: demog_loess_ssa_boot.tab

Number of cases: 481
No. of variables per record: 5
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:ink4zPhaFjZEy72/wes5fA==

Table with confidence intervals around the LOESS lines fit in Figures 13 and 16 of analysis.pdf. Calculated using loess_boot.R.

File Description--f2510040

File: ex_ssa.tab

Number of cases: 5152
No. of variables per record: 16
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:TY7JqJrD4cVZHLSqIX7Tpg==

SSA's forecasts of life expectancy.

File Description--f2510050

File: hmd_fltper_1x1.tab

Number of cases: 8658
No. of variables per record: 10
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:V5SPWleyqd+FvWZUGTyDtA==

Raw period life table for females from Human Mortality Database.

File Description--f2510039

File: hmd_mltper_1x1.tab

Number of cases: 8658
No. of variables per record: 10
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:8aS38ziyhsrIMqIHBzYlHw==

Raw period life table for males from Human Mortality Database.

File Description--f2510045

File: hmd_population.tab

Number of cases: 8769
No. of variables per record: 5
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:v2GsOe7ODO58F0bXJyos3A==

Raw population counts from Human Mortality Database.

File Description--f2510046

File: obs_ex.tab

Number of cases: 624
No. of variables per record: 5
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:M3JA9Xo1LKmNl2zR7cCSyA==

Observed life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for males and females from HMD and SSA.

File Description--f2510051

File: obs_tfr.tab

Number of cases: 156
No. of variables per record: 3
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:5k5m7AEUbrvSSIU31Y9r6g==

Observed total fertility rate (TFR) from HFD and SSA.

File Description--f2510053

File: ssa_expend.tab

Number of cases: 14
No. of variables per record: 15
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:oXE14XwJQ1xMaKapGmcZGA==

Observed SSA expenditures from 2000-2013.

File Description--f2510041

File: ssa_expend_forecasts.tab

Number of cases: 66
No. of variables per record: 3
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:xzcmvZS9bZolGGSZIyM9jg==

Forecasts of SSA OASDI expenditures from 2000-2013.

File Description--f2546912

File: ssa_finance.tab

Number of cases: 1647
No. of variables per record: 23
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:sJKjM+mU6OznMRVbQPsaRg==

SSA's forecasts of finances.

File Description--f2546918

File: ssa_immigration.tab

Number of cases: 17
No. of variables per record: 8
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:f95HleuL2vWTlQbW7IlBcw==

SSA's forecasts of legal migration.

File Description--f2510043

File: tfr_ssa.tab

Number of cases: 200
No. of variables per record: 14
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:4JCdoXILpSjSs3yt88eoug==

SSA's forecasts of total fertility rate.

File Description--f2510047

File: tf_balance_pred.tab

Number of cases: 1647
No. of variables per record: 23
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:sJKjM+mU6OznMRVbQPsaRg==

SSA's forecasts of the income rate, cost rate, and balance of trust fund.

File Description--f2510049

File: tf_ratio_pred.tab

Number of cases: 1644
No. of variables per record: 9
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:vc3TLVH16pR+Q/XpHUmEJA==

SSA's forecasts of the trust fund ratio.

File Description--f2510054

File: unexpect_benif.tab

Number of cases: 121
No. of variables per record: 3
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:JM9yfkt/hsIZa8pyCPGaVw==

Estimated number of unanticipated OASI beneficiaries for a given Trustees Report and projection year from 2000-2010. Calculated using unexpect_benif.R.

Variable Description

List of Variables:

TR - TR
fit - fit
lb - lb
ub - ub
type - type
TR - TR
fit - fit
lb - lb
ub - ub
type - type
TR - TR
forecast_year - forecast.year
sex - sex
age - age
forecast - forecast
high - high
low - low
hmd_observed - hmd_observed
ssa_observed - ssa_observed
hmd_residual - hmd_residual
ssa_residual - ssa_residual
lower - lower
upper - upper
ci_width - ci_width
hmd_coverage - hmd_coverage
ssa_coverage - ssa_coverage
Year - Year
Age - Age
mx - mx
qx - qx
ax - ax
lx - lx
dx - dx
Lx - Lx
Tx - Tx
ex - ex
Year - Year
Age - Age
mx - mx
qx - qx
ax - ax
lx - lx
dx - dx
Lx - Lx
Tx - Tx
ex - ex
Year - Year
Age - Age
Female - Female
Male - Male
Total - Total
year - year
sex - sex
age - age
source - source
ex - ex
year - year
source - source
tfr - tfr
year - year
oasdi_total_expend - oasdi_total_expend
oasdi_benif_payments - oasdi_benif_payments
oasdi_admin_expend - oasdi_admin_expend
oasdi_transfer_to_rr - oasdi_transfer_to_rr
oasi_total_expend - oasi_total_expend
oasi_benif_payments - oasi_benif_payments
oasi_admin_expend - oasi_admin_expend
oasi_transfer_to_rr - oasi_transfer_to_rr
total_benif - total_benif
oasi_total_benif - oasi_total_benif
oasi_ret_workers - oasi_ret_workers
oasi_surv - oasi_surv
ssdi_dis_workers - ssdi_dis_workers
CPI_U - CPI.U
TR - TR
year_forecast - year.forecast
oasdi_total_cost - oasdi.total.cost
TR - TR
forecast.year - forecast.year
income.rate - income.rate
cost.rate - cost.rate
balance - balance
income.lower - income.lower
income.upper - income.upper
income.I - income.I
income.III - income.III
income.IIA - income.IIA
income.truth - income.truth
cost.lower - cost.lower
cost.upper - cost.upper
cost.I - cost.I
cost.III - cost.III
cost.IIA - cost.IIA
cost.truth - cost.truth
balance.lower - balance.lower
balance.upper - balance.upper
balance.I - balance.I
balance.III - balance.III
balance.IIA - balance.IIA
balance.truth - balance.truth
TR - TR
forecast.year - forecast.year
forecast - forecast
high - high
low - low
truth - truth
residual - residual
coverage - coverage
TR - TR
forecast_year - forecast.year
forecast - forecast
high - high
low - low
hfd_observed - hfd_observed
ssa_observed - ssa_observed
hfd_residual - hfd_residual
ssa_residual - ssa_residual
lower - lower
upper - upper
ci_width - ci_width
hfd_coverage - hfd_coverage
ssa_coverage - ssa_coverage
TR - TR
forecast_year - forecast.year
income_rate - income.rate
cost_rate - cost.rate
balance - balance
income_lower - income.lower
income_upper - income.upper
income_I - income.I
income_III - income.III
income_IIA - income.IIA
income_truth - income.truth
cost_lower - cost.lower
cost_upper - cost.upper
cost_I - cost.I
cost_III - cost.III
cost_IIA - cost.IIA
cost_truth - cost.truth
balance_lower - balance.lower
balance_upper - balance.upper
balance_I - balance.I
balance_III - balance.III
balance_IIA - balance.IIA
balance_truth - balance.truth
TR - TR
forecast_year - forecast.year
tfratio - tfratio
tfratio_lower - tfratio.lower
tfratio_upper - tfratio.upper
tfratio_I - tfratio.I
tfratio_III - tfratio.III
tfratio_IIA - tfratio.IIA
tfratio_truth - tfratio.truth
TR - TR
forecast_year - forecast.year
unexpect_benif - unexpect_benif

Variables

f2510044 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:/8vNtpV4JgHellRDHLqp+w==

fit

f2510044 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:nlj5RWfI6bHTkMr+DAN+LQ==

f2510044 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:f3RxxGfU2853nTgyNLPMRg==

f2510044 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:k4ItNdjuqaBo+hHIvUDkZQ==

type

f2510044 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
5.	TFR	101
4.	Female Life Expectancy at 65	95
3.	Male Life Expectancy at 65	95
1.	Male Life Expectancy at Birth	95
2.	Female Life Expectancy at Birth	95

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:WJl6eJgwNJW3Dlz0MEMIXw==

f2510052 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:/8vNtpV4JgHellRDHLqp+w==

fit

f2510052 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:3CT7ZWQmWo5ozSPIYYeFEg==

f2510052 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:a7t+LxqzAoHeVF1JxIZEhQ==

f2510052 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ZccGqOJAnERdCf5omVfW4w==

type

f2510052 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
2.	Female Life Expectancy at Birth	95
3.	Male Life Expectancy at 65	95
5.	TFR	101
4.	Female Life Expectancy at 65	95
1.	Male Life Expectancy at Birth	95

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:WJl6eJgwNJW3Dlz0MEMIXw==

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ab33kbFRKlsrfufWh6tdpA==

forecast.year

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:0sKnGSxpjj5/b/6MfNp7dg==

sex

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:HV+6LPMWdUGdAu2JWfinHQ==

age

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:mGZ18Ui5QFPz2zm2Lxmlvg==

forecast

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Cm6kIl2SQHLLt2KInAOIxQ==

high

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:JZ9bmDgmkyBPFlw1rCRWnw==

low

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vv83qR9nWQ1Xl+j3KT/G+A==

hmd_observed

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:wqi+poH2Geo5/9Zy7xYPjw==

ssa_observed

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:FMB9dsrzp5xQZD54etvbRw==

hmd_residual

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vtjBsKW6hgoI3IEFFCGzSw==

ssa_residual

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:b8209Tz8EHl0FcVWZ9miIg==

lower

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:UqJgwqHnF9lzGV5XdlXX2g==

upper

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Bepeey2eUDB9ppFMSfaD7A==

ci_width

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:u22Lh81rndyjZjenB3RvRQ==

hmd_coverage

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:+RMQY9sOTXM4vqeHavxdQw==

ssa_coverage

f2510040 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Bd/z+mtS3KOmeeQdRhbdcQ==

Year

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:WlL1Dd16LSc6FmT8l9e+xg==

Age

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:YOnwescg7BYC46CwVCCmbw==

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ZEifycLWEiSfvAOzleDM9Q==

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:1JmT8Bc8Tm1CzmwHe9bNXg==

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:wBYYemvDEeUUX/ofJJ5X3Q==

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:d9TtSuH4twNfumEMOoXFNQ==

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:EoGzSznZo+YlThP22Q2Q1Q==

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:bAsRUY6GKFH96HBeRzLV4g==

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:dIevgMo9ztTtp4YScQEtBw==

f2510050 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vVE8WaRD1nJud1qcf9IPig==

Year

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:WlL1Dd16LSc6FmT8l9e+xg==

Age

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:YOnwescg7BYC46CwVCCmbw==

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:fmId64I5wE9hZ4sVovXmPw==

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Z4264LJtO2INje7JUdoslg==

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:UiQSZPFHpSO52Ms6CUD0oA==

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:twiCn0uXLAfZATfQFAdozA==

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:3l9/i+Vx0NLQSzjLndBbdA==

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:pP+jTJHdJIAsYHidWphbZA==

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:YqGPDG3Gh9N+LWMzR9Jh+g==

f2510039 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ZmW4IaNsfb79NEPv1OjBkw==

Year

f2510045 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ctmndc3t0WmF1kn8RwgVug==

Age

f2510045 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vvoxRqqx7NMFTBx+CAL49Q==

Female

f2510045 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Rq5cnb5fmLoM69B2LN2Ibg==

Male

f2510045 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:L7p0dgcUNITLr9cN/YMTdw==

Total

f2510045 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:DlF0hLanprJk0/n+6fDhlg==

year

f2510046 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:hgrOK06OnkoKQYtSUnVozg==

sex

f2510046 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
1.	Female	312
2.	Male	312

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:b9VE087m70L4l64Qkd+I8g==

age

f2510046 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:zAmTKN4kk/LTADQ8FRebnA==

source

f2510046 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
2.	SSA	312
1.	HMD	312

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:RE91pV/6om2fZInagWLWyw==

f2510046 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:LE/4OVNRAySdoQO91FtpWQ==

year

f2510051 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:xzj2jB8sFY04PYaT4yn1hw==

source

f2510051 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
2.	SSA	78
1.	HFD	78

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:EnHR/ibIwG1UbtyQmPV56w==

tfr

f2510051 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:1C5Hze/TnWz+Gu/4CDI14g==

year

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:IGQmU+SnGQ61nnWBDcVfig==

oasdi_total_expend

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:qR+xDnNINtC6FW9S8XARdQ==

oasdi_benif_payments

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:65ksvcdWmznwcZzsMQ0QfA==

oasdi_admin_expend

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:HHadFGFtN3z6h7s3SAbETw==

oasdi_transfer_to_rr

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:J/wvCfnPoBJ9BRFqe2Ov5A==

oasi_total_expend

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:l8s9fY8tJylL9bdw1OAv1g==

oasi_benif_payments

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ym23XiymyyEmKxo94M5raw==

oasi_admin_expend

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:XsXWJKQIXc/OSIBXfQ3rFw==

oasi_transfer_to_rr

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:AmW3YHJqfdu312X2LeGvVA==

total_benif

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:KzT8BIoCYmvv//Nnzw64zw==

oasi_total_benif

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:kDwnTUO7/eOh0/qReaGfUQ==

oasi_ret_workers

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:c/9yIl1HP7jsJM8XUI1qHw==

oasi_surv

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:I8ZPXHds8XC5J5al15t3eQ==

ssdi_dis_workers

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Sbrt28ZoCYS3zpiglef9bg==

CPI.U

f2510053 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:lkXnpakpM0ieLRGZeZIR4Q==

f2510041 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:wjWkm1k/ql0WuO7OV4r/4w==

year.forecast

f2510041 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:J7YsAHw5SIMc9GhXLLZ+/A==

oasdi.total.cost

f2510041 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:yGgrow6RfkxvuhCy8GWvQg==

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:PGusHaQ/QCB6wdaEcsH+NQ==

forecast.year

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:dNqhteNINwdYdaXqQF4cag==

income.rate

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:tWxcQgstqDMFFa7hnN1SMw==

cost.rate

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:6qPAWxXNNF9gibaDStCHkw==

balance

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:FYKz9hqZvGWfJwLfZwYErA==

income.lower

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:8B310cEeX3+xsye54OptUg==

income.upper

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:wdDXd0v15JW7A+ESo5bduA==

income.I

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:AalZYY08kj00S4C3BqhJHA==

income.III

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:32GHUi1LSa+DRVASWuo/HA==

income.IIA

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:94UxjVPhAXOkcVYESddebg==

income.truth

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:82mR6eMff2b4Jxf8lhz0JQ==

cost.lower

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:G0U/ZWyRhDZLJjIHmr40qQ==

cost.upper

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:WP5NgXm7zFCXT3lYM1g1vQ==

cost.I

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:iny6U/0uEUki0JghuB5C4g==

cost.III

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:m2KcaG5TJwFJ7M62QBBNug==

cost.IIA

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:oMCxmV+3II0aDuLvdpwaOg==

cost.truth

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ftVBwZHDARli4AqfMLlteg==

balance.lower

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:/wtAy79jthKJGz+1f5eSXA==

balance.upper

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:wKiWpXwafO3W/hisJ/fGzw==

balance.I

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:EvfonWxKCDvFKv9GKUMkZg==

balance.III

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:CuBLzZIB+idf2f/3gWCTcQ==

balance.IIA

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:1A5ngD9ihBDeQs6GtSX2qQ==

balance.truth

f2546912 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:JRmZymF43653ebWjhfvaJQ==

f2546918 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:dOr5sk3Eka8yKzlD0hkKuw==

forecast.year

f2546918 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:1AcSMhF2gHrkN2KhhMv9GA==

forecast

f2546918 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:yGEIId/0nTO11xkGIJPLxw==

high

f2546918 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Ig+G2XSOUKKWBgqcSWgQIQ==

low

f2546918 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:uCa8AqqDUJ/kHKqr/nE2JQ==

truth

f2546918 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:8iPHwHp3tIu2ZjhByfh9Aw==

residual

f2546918 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:HF72Wf8HdPpEH3M25bqSUA==

coverage

f2546918 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
1.	TRUE	10
0.	FALSE	7

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:arhGw0WasDC2MMvhLuGZyA==

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Eysyi6GMBwIcxCyhzjOcZQ==

forecast.year

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:4WDxIQyqEeRX4HVlPwPeJg==

forecast

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Fld8odQSLH66MDprwCN+mQ==

high

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:/UPDIy/MzMv1+acn9RQ7cQ==

low

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:clzmj/Z9ixv+Ge4B7WybSw==

hfd_observed

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:H8YwHbKzCstn8ardmRUswg==

ssa_observed

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:bJdoG2MCKzKfr+m2ZVjg2g==

hfd_residual

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:fezelicIlLPXW3D/YT2UPg==

ssa_residual

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:KfLdUqoqciOl8OxeIr7fvg==

lower

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:/UPDIy/MzMv1+acn9RQ7cQ==

upper

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:clzmj/Z9ixv+Ge4B7WybSw==

ci_width

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:80qESdZ+vLsCGHALb24m3w==

hfd_coverage

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:VsG9Cqa2dxUdqvp8LsYnXg==

ssa_coverage

f2510043 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:0TBwoCjVqwLU+Q7LtZyXuA==

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:PGusHaQ/QCB6wdaEcsH+NQ==

forecast.year

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:dNqhteNINwdYdaXqQF4cag==

income.rate

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:tWxcQgstqDMFFa7hnN1SMw==

cost.rate

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:6qPAWxXNNF9gibaDStCHkw==

balance

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:FYKz9hqZvGWfJwLfZwYErA==

income.lower

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:8B310cEeX3+xsye54OptUg==

income.upper

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:wdDXd0v15JW7A+ESo5bduA==

income.I

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:AalZYY08kj00S4C3BqhJHA==

income.III

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:32GHUi1LSa+DRVASWuo/HA==

income.IIA

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:94UxjVPhAXOkcVYESddebg==

income.truth

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:82mR6eMff2b4Jxf8lhz0JQ==

cost.lower

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:G0U/ZWyRhDZLJjIHmr40qQ==

cost.upper

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:WP5NgXm7zFCXT3lYM1g1vQ==

cost.I

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:iny6U/0uEUki0JghuB5C4g==

cost.III

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:m2KcaG5TJwFJ7M62QBBNug==

cost.IIA

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:oMCxmV+3II0aDuLvdpwaOg==

cost.truth

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ftVBwZHDARli4AqfMLlteg==

balance.lower

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:/wtAy79jthKJGz+1f5eSXA==

balance.upper

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:wKiWpXwafO3W/hisJ/fGzw==

balance.I

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:EvfonWxKCDvFKv9GKUMkZg==

balance.III

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:CuBLzZIB+idf2f/3gWCTcQ==

balance.IIA

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:1A5ngD9ihBDeQs6GtSX2qQ==

balance.truth

f2510047 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:JRmZymF43653ebWjhfvaJQ==

f2510049 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Bp0K/rAbFsqBZ0Tkgclk5A==

forecast.year

f2510049 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:8nKgWsUV0CINmr0HGZF11w==

tfratio

f2510049 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:8VNTqVxqhUiEL/eegBqh0g==

tfratio.lower

f2510049 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:GvINluEeTW9OdmtUIRbyHQ==

tfratio.upper

f2510049 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vM0asWz+yKXhQnOkPW3+ng==

tfratio.I

f2510049 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:zL0qjGDDpvwKB2G+k0ygBQ==

tfratio.III

f2510049 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:fomBlU/rzFSAb8NXxA57VA==

tfratio.IIA

f2510049 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:fx//M1cm0Pbp5WnKuhpMBQ==

tfratio.truth

f2510049 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:KirYsiKJBOQYb5vcvrMEyw==

f2510054 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:4IwprsKS53FYTnkZOTV36Q==

forecast.year

f2510054 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:f4HDQDoLLAvXld6Iz8nPvg==

unexpect_benif

f2510054 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:UtK4cSYTCk++ei4vLzafww==

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

analysis.pdf

Text:

Replication of figures.

Notes:

application/pdf

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

analysis.Rnw

Text:

Sweave file that can be compiled using the knitr package in R. knitr runs the R code, outputs the figures into a figures subdirectory, and creates the analysis.tex file.

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

analysis_appendix.pdf

Text:

Replication of figures in online Appendix.

Notes:

application/pdf

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

analysis_appendix.Rnw

Text:

Sweave file that can be compiled using the knitr package in R. knitr runs the R code, outputs the figures into a figures subdirectory, and creates the analysis_appendix.tex file.

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

KKS_JEP2015.zip

Text:

Full replication archive. Download this to run makefile, which runs knitr on analysis.Rnw and compiles analysis.pdf. Also replicates Appendix.

Notes:

application/zip

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

loess_boot.R

Text:

Script that calculates LOESS confidence intervals for Figures 4, 13, 15, and 16 of analysis.pdf.

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

Makefile

Text:

Makefile that controls workflow for analysis.

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

README.pdf

Text:

Readme file.

Notes:

application/pdf

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

unexpect_benif.R

Text:

Script that estimates unexpected beneficiaries.

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII