Replication Data for: Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects? (doi:10.7910/DVN/29098)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
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Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects?

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/29098

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2015-02-11

Version:

Bibliographic Citation:

Aronow, Peter M.; Samii, Cyrus, 2015, "Replication Data for: Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects?", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/29098, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:5:xs1RlMqBcgw+xaJr+5fHCA== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects?

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/29098

Authoring Entity:

Aronow, Peter M. (Yale University)

Samii, Cyrus (New York University)

Producer:

Cyrus Samii

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Access Authority:

Cyrus Samii

Depositor:

Cyrus Samii

Date of Deposit:

2015-02-10

Date of Distribution:

2015

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/29098

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences, Causal inference, External validity, Multiple regression, Observational studies, Randomized experiments

Abstract:

With an unrepresentative sample, the estimate of a causal effect may fail to characterize how effects operate in the population of interest. What is less well understood is that conventional estimation practices for observational studies may produce the same problem even with a representative sample. Causal effects estimated via multiple regression differentially weight each unit's contribution. The ``effective sample'' that regression uses to generate the estimate may bear little resemblance to the population of interest, and the results may be nonrepresentative in a manner similar to what quasi-experimental methods or experiments with convenience samples produce. There is no general external validity basis for preferring multiple regression on representative samples over quasi-experimental or experimental methods. We show how to estimate the ``multiple regression weights'' that allow one to study the effective sample. We discuss alternative approaches that, under certain conditions, recover representative average causal effects. The requisite conditions cannot always be met.

Kind of Data:

DTA, SHP, CSV, R

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

Other Study Description Materials

Related Publications

Citation

Title:

Aronow, Peter M., and Cyrus Samil. 2016. “Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects.” <i>American Journal of Political Science</i> 60 (1): 250-267.

Identification Number:

10.1111/ajps.12185

Bibliographic Citation:

Aronow, Peter M., and Cyrus Samil. 2016. “Does Regression Produce Representative Estimates of Causal Effects.” <i>American Journal of Political Science</i> 60 (1): 250-267.

File Description--f2533819

File: gerber-huber-analysis-data.tab

Number of cases: 1469
No. of variables per record: 156
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:uhjKC8SCl/E4+IzTDnuY5w==

File Description--f2533818

File: jensen-rep.tab

Number of cases: 1630
No. of variables per record: 13
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:5:vmSksj1JL8KWfIAny2wa9A==

Variable Description

List of Variables:

caseid - case identifier
state - state of residence
weight - case weight
pid3 - 3 point party id
pid7 - party identification
fips - county fips
postdisp - post disposition
pr_gifts - amount expected to spend on holiday presents
pr_vacat - amount expected to spend on vacation next summer
pr_happy - how happy are you
pr_hhinc - what will happen to household's income in 2 years
pr_natpr - what will happen to nation's economy over next year
pr_state - what will happen to state's economy over next year
pt_gifts - expect to spend on holiday presents
pt_vacat - expect to spend on vacations
pt_happy - level of happiness
pt_hhinc - next 2 yrs - change in household's average monthly income
pt_natpr - next year - change in national economy
pt_state - next year - change in state economy
gender - gender
race - race
educ - education
birthyr - birth year
income - family income
unionmem - union membership
pre_pid3 - RECODE of pid3 (3 point party id)
pre_pid5 - Party ID (Scale,-2=Strong Republican to +2=Strong Democrat)
pre_pid7 - 7 Point Party ID Scale (-3 Strong Rep. to 3 Strong Dem.)
C_female - Female (1=yes)
pre_white - RECODE of race (race)
C_hispanic - Hispanic (1=yes)
C_black - Black (1=yes)
C_age - Age (years)
C_age2 - Age squared
C_union - Union member (1=yes)
C_income - Income (Scale, 0 to 1)
C_incomedkna - Income Refused/Don't Know
C_educ - Education (Scale, 0 to 5)
pre_holidayspend - Pre-election holiday spending
pre_vacationspend - Pre-election vacation spending
pre_happy - Pre-election happiness
pre_hhincomeforecast - Pre-election household income forecast
pre_nationaleconforecast - Pre-election national economy forecast
pre_stateeconforecast - Pre-election state economy forecast
post_holidayspend - Post-election holiday spending
post_vacationspend - Post-election vacation spending
post_happy - Post-election happiness
post_hhincomeforecast - Post-election household income forecast
post_nationaleconforecast - Post-election national economy forecast
post_stateeconforecast - Post-election state economy forecast
prenov - Pro-Nov
postnov - Post-Nov
cookrating - CookRating
cook_d_rating - Cook_D_Rating
probGovchange - cook prob gov party changes
incumbentgovrunningingeneral - Incumbent Gov Running in General?
winning_cand - Winning_Cand
winning_party - Winning_Party
incumbentlost - Incumbent Lost?
drgov - DRGov
partychanged - PartyChanged
drchange - DRChange
r - R
d - D
win_margin - Win_Margin
govelec
yalesurvey
fipsindx
_merge
dpct2p - Dem. prop. 2-party pres. vote, 2000
sd_1 - state==AK
sd_2 - state==AL
sd_3 - state==AR
sd_4 - state==AZ
sd_6 - state==CO
sd_7 - state==CT
sd_8 - state==DE
sd_9 - state==FL
sd_10 - state==GA
sd_11 - state==HI
sd_12 - state==IA
sd_13 - state==ID
sd_14 - state==IL
sd_15 - state==IN
sd_16 - state==KS
sd_17 - state==KY
sd_18 - state==LA
sd_19 - state==MA
sd_20 - state==MD
sd_21 - state==ME
sd_22 - state==MI
sd_23 - state==MN
sd_24 - state==MO
sd_25 - state==MS
sd_26 - state==MT
sd_27 - state==NC
sd_28 - state==ND
sd_29 - state==NE
sd_30 - state==NH
sd_31 - state==NJ
sd_32 - state==NM
sd_33 - state==NV
sd_34 - state==NY
sd_35 - state==OH
sd_36 - state==OK
sd_37 - state==OR
sd_38 - state==PA
sd_39 - state==RI
sd_40 - state==SC
sd_41 - state==SD
sd_42 - state==TN
sd_43 - state==TX
sd_44 - state==UT
sd_45 - state==VA
sd_46 - state==VT
sd_47 - state==WA
sd_48 - state==WI
sd_49 - state==WV
sd_50 - state==WY
stnum - state of residence
pidcat_r2 - Strong R
pidcat_r1 - Weak/Lean R
pidcat_d1 - Weak/Lean D
pidcat_d2 - Strong D
post_log_holidayspend
pre_log_holidayspend
delta_holidayspend - Log Change in Holiday Spending
post_log_vacationspend
pre_log_vacationspend
delta_vacationspend - Log Change in Vacation Spending
pre_hap_2 - pre_happy== 1.0000
pre_hap_3 - pre_happy== 2.0000
pre_hap_4 - pre_happy== 3.0000
pre_hh_2 - pre_hhincomeforecast== -1.0000
pre_hh_3 - pre_hhincomeforecast== 0.0000
pre_hh_4 - pre_hhincomeforecast== 1.0000
pre_hh_5 - pre_hhincomeforecast== 2.0000
pre_nef_2 - pre_nationaleconforecast== -1.0000
pre_nef_3 - pre_nationaleconforecast== 0.0000
pre_nef_4 - pre_nationaleconforecast== 1.0000
pre_nef_5 - pre_nationaleconforecast== 2.0000
pre_sef_2 - pre_stateeconforecast== -1.0000
pre_sef_3 - pre_stateeconforecast== 0.0000
pre_sef_4 - pre_stateeconforecast== 1.0000
pre_sef_5 - pre_stateeconforecast== 2.0000
uncertainty - Uncertain Gov. Elec.
X_DemGov - Post-election Governor's Party (1=Dem., 0=No elec., -1=Rep.)
X_uncertainty - Uncertain Governor Election
X_Unc_DemGov - Uncertain Governor Election x Post-election Governor's Party
X_Unc_pid5 - Uncertain Governor Election x Party ID
X_DemGov_Pid - Post-election Governor's Party x Party ID
X_Unc_DemGov_Pid - Uncertain Governor Election x Post-election Governor's Party x Party ID
summforme
vachat - Fitted values
pre_pid_fit - Fitted values
wt
country - country
year - year
Fvar5 - Fvar5
var5 - var5
market - market
lgdppc - lgdppc
gdpgrowt - gdpgrowt
tradeofg - tradeofg
overallb - overallb
generalg - generalg
regime - regime
d2 - d2
d3 - d3

Variables

case identifier

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:zoKOVKl4bNcru2MzOP3mkg==

state of residence

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:jENhqo/mIT8bpR3Fh8pqxg==

case weight

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ExezHlBmD8bCyRI2Z2o/8A==

3 point party id

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
98.	skipped	0
4.	other	80
3.	independent	565
99.	not asked	0
1.	democrat	412
5.	not sure	0
2.	republican	408

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:mm0S1IlmhE9ARYtStIEGbw==

party identification

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
5.	lean republican	190
99.	not asked	0
3.	lean democrat	260
9.	don't know	0
8.	not sure	14
4.	independent	184
2.	weak democrat	179
6.	weak republican	167
1.	strong democrat	230
7.	strong republican	238
98.	skipped	0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:0eyTUUpb5rd2DD8Bv5fHXw==

county fips

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:EiWNDZrA0fNVuA4DKrMTzg==

post disposition

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
1.	complete	1425
0.	incomplete	44

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:HBtUgKpffQ2xXU3u/LJ5Sg==

amount expected to spend on holiday presents

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:EkxrApwmyG0Mk9bIJLpbqA==

amount expected to spend on vacation next summer

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:UVNiiYmTBixMDTXqlrBEWw==

how happy are you

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
3.	not very happy	288
9.	not asked	0
2.	somewhat happy	714
1.	very happy	374
4.	not at all happy	92
8.	skipped	0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:reXtskvEm36AP/kJr35vJQ==

what will happen to household's income in 2 years

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
4.	decrease a little	122
1.	increase a lot	138
8.	skipped	0
9.	not asked	0
5.	decrease a lot	76
2.	increase a little	673
3.	about the same	458

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ZtZQkxQBn6ROQJoE35gRgQ==

what will happen to nation's economy over next year

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
5.	much worse	96
9.	not asked	0
2.	better	394
1.	much better	44
4.	worse	454
3.	about the same	478
8.	skipped	0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:BtCqNmY743rdMK8ktLy0YA==

what will happen to state's economy over next year

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
5.	much worse	47
4.	worse	308
1.	much better	38
9.	not asked	0
8.	skipped	0
3.	about the same	692
2.	better	382

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:uKguk6mKn+3n+mblijq+Gw==

expect to spend on holiday presents

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:s7d4nMVz7HXvHOPz/BvBhg==

expect to spend on vacations

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:HiIRQGyNfDVfXd7E39sJgQ==

level of happiness

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
9.	not asked	0
1.	very happy	326
4.	not at all happy	60
2.	somewhat happy	796
3.	not very happy	285
8.	skipped	0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:pg9jvd1gWOJRF07c/EUX6w==

next 2 yrs - change in household's average monthly income

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
8.	skipped	0
3.	about the same	436
4.	decrease a little	161
2.	increase a little	643
9.	not asked	0
1.	increase a lot	137
5.	decrease a lot	75

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:RFTiv4IfWC8pRutGziFESA==

next year - change in national economy

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
5.	much worse	63
2.	better	357
1.	much better	21
9.	not asked	0
8.	skipped	0
4.	worse	469
3.	about the same	539

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ZQf8jCF0xCMDZJ/Q2+2q3A==

next year - change in state economy

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
5.	much worse	71
3.	about the same	637
2.	better	374
1.	much better	30
8.	skipped	0
9.	not asked	0
4.	worse	332

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:2XMa7y5HU0svzPi6F1b1Bg==

gender

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
98.	skipped	0
1.	male	700
9.	not asked	0
8.	skipped	0
2.	female	769
99.	not asked	0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:yGaNr3qX3YQkBv5HyIOBmQ==

race

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
5.	native american	17
4.	asian	9
99.	not asked	0
3.	hispanic	66
6.	mixed	32
98.	skipped	0
1.	white	1240
8.	middle eastern	5
7.	other (please specify):	43
2.	black	57

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:6M2BqF0TJZSm2BJrPE1Kgg==

education

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
5.	4-year	287
1.	no hs	31
3.	some college	527
98.	skipped	0
2.	high school graduate	320
4.	2-year	175
99.	not asked	0
6.	post-grad	129

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Dsh+kvYQa3FmyTZwEmNuTQ==

birth year

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
9998.	skipped	0
9999.	not asked	0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Zp1vh7zVshqp6R47JvmelA==

family income

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
6.	$30,000 - $39,999	146
1.	less than $10,000	22
14.	$150,000 or more	82
99.	not asked	0
15.	prefer not to say	162
5.	$25,000 - $29,999	62
8.	$50,000 - $59,999	136
11.	$80,000 - $99,999	138
3.	$15,000 - $19,999	40
4.	$20,000 - $24,999	68
2.	$10,000 - $14,999	27
9.	$60,000 - $69,999	110
12.	$100,000 - $119,999	106
98.	skipped	0
10.	$70,000 - $79,999	138
13.	$120,000 - $149,999	76
7.	$40,000 - $49,999	156

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vpw1/ty6ymNiLCIDqPEKAg==

union membership

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
99.	not asked	0
1.	current member	113
3.	never	862
2.	past member	325
98.	skipped	0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:UjPzBuicE4CY8XJLAU0bxw==

RECODE of pid3 (3 point party id)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:HBsuN/C2bG2tV8KoXpU2gQ==

Party ID (Scale,-2=Strong Republican to +2=Strong Democrat)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:0NeTB7mr6jsUhDBgwTAuGA==

7 Point Party ID Scale (-3 Strong Rep. to 3 Strong Dem.)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:HDATVM4zK0+Znv4B2SU8RQ==

Female (1=yes)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:boIVYFIKTyUXdBTx6zkThw==

RECODE of race (race)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:0IT1mwikBXdzKr2hzExybg==

Hispanic (1=yes)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:++E8oeiTArGTrNuXOAKlrg==

Black (1=yes)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:UYMiXe8R6X5C+EAQg7y/zg==

Age (years)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ru+tKtOO8Ds/ujCsoPB+Sg==

Age squared

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:PBnSqWmP9ddHqAbzWwWUmw==

Union member (1=yes)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:k201eyLowXaOyXNK4gGO7g==

Income (Scale, 0 to 1)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:A8q2cwHE9aQQFt762Lf+nw==

Income Refused/Don't Know

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:/EDax2WAPdPIoJUE7kujwA==

Education (Scale, 0 to 5)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:wahS2BuPF5MrmWnsXST7bw==

Pre-election holiday spending

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vCtI+0CAwj1dKWHSeXH9Fg==

Pre-election vacation spending

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:3reH3Oy+mSjlnkvzQqepEQ==

Pre-election happiness

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:MQFTvcrQVFkwihV0am6ckA==

Pre-election household income forecast

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:EB4hKq12Ho7NPoEcmfEzrg==

Pre-election national economy forecast

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:7/kFVKgkxCKYe1oOKJLXEw==

Pre-election state economy forecast

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:jgK4exGjFK9g8oIDzKreyA==

Post-election holiday spending

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:o+siCrdxS4TDGMldAfOmfg==

Post-election vacation spending

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:HiIRQGyNfDVfXd7E39sJgQ==

Post-election happiness

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:0458JEnVRRyS8wcQfXaa5g==

Post-election household income forecast

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Cgm/lu5tJovtn8sBiRKw4Q==

Post-election national economy forecast

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:rXhmxFLselZoVw4V7Wya+Q==

Post-election state economy forecast

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:UE9Q+Y01ZwaI03HpKSo4yg==

Pro-Nov

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:/YbTYsDhC04y/fcDJ1UguQ==

Post-Nov

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:yQTyR8TqCoUzU5Aau19lHA==

CookRating

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:R2iijQc7267AexVx10glnA==

Cook_D_Rating

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:YPL63VvDS812gdq7gfTb0g==

cook prob gov party changes

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:6r4hZRbSsdFpfadfNkWBuQ==

Incumbent Gov Running in General?

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:U1HnhdRAUfocUqZ4fhxd5g==

Winning_Cand

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:cc5QV48OifICCQYTMPWKnw==

Winning_Party

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:cDDh/iJIYyRk/uNUwacIuQ==

Incumbent Lost?

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:kxACryUatgMLRua9ky98AA==

DRGov

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:NS+Q0II7bX34B1pAy8lKmw==

PartyChanged

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:uCMG0DXbsSEmkpal1eB1eA==

DRChange

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:uCMG0DXbsSEmkpal1eB1eA==

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:4xMeAKLhok6El5b3tJ1yAQ==

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vCPB78fV3bpA20097YmdNg==

Win_Margin

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:fgHhw5DS+wF6LjJxjbpvFg==

govelec

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:zKYaVuxdYYh982civSK/bA==

yalesurvey

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:GJITX9o6dBVIfFNUN9dNJQ==

fipsindx

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Oe4noUoZbzPn9XUBYc3jxQ==

_merge

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
3.	both in master and using data	1447
9999.	signature	0
1.	only in master data	22
2.	only in using data	0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:CKZ0wzOIx0sCWcWH/PwHYw==

Dem. prop. 2-party pres. vote, 2000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:O4mvGFp4YdGwG+lQF0lfgw==

state==AK

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:VEmsxPnMT5tdrrAg9UNf9w==

state==AL

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Qfu8/HIctgCYsEZ4Z/yDLQ==

state==AR

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:lZFW6VDmAy8ufeYTr0ArkQ==

state==AZ

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:9UBKJ42KCeZcTqvhprC03g==

state==CO

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:V1iEzEItSGa08mp2rh9I3g==

state==CT

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ggV0P/dQeNRCg0Mm/Ks5Rg==

state==DE

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:iLl09wmlsuNu5ZcYdYcrdg==

state==FL

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:sRTRVlY5LpED4AT78CDw3g==

state==GA

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:yz2ua4+LS5fyo/XEIh1NAA==

state==HI

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:TtNJi0XFbw9zBOIg7AeTzQ==

state==IA

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:5N4WGzxKsfT3mB+bkDB4iA==

state==ID

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:oLiEwfEwF4XHL7ijcxqoCQ==

state==IL

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:5+n7V8Cya71+Z7DnzmxiAg==

state==IN

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ENwKb2SajqhEu3oPBZtH1A==

state==KS

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:cP4lGJ1vZpDl0FhZ4oY8VQ==

state==KY

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:N+ITAo/G29rUBVH5jD12OA==

state==LA

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:XoI4CPyxhRMk3mL5HVW3IQ==

state==MA

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:wWza67VaIAvLOJt+UQ3sMQ==

state==MD

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:MWw6rRGzi767SK4Mp3oNwg==

state==ME

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:0qXDUN3kDl8xnkzRtPcDug==

state==MI

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:JlLaAo1X3IvIeTGru864tg==

state==MN

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:4rWaI1uB2b4fTeqeKf3F2Q==

state==MO

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:aQTT0PjLg9c9+NPAyifyWg==

state==MS

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:s8e1v2miTpncWxmp6IED6A==

state==MT

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:qjrIdLrmdeaRJLbMvWhikQ==

state==NC

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:veM76IAUB+6mT8iCZAlxhg==

state==ND

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:XijlIPFCgXDCUGsa98PXzg==

state==NE

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:RfSUabXpgJbdGUeCj4Nohg==

state==NH

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:i+aPMUgGpwXFCUJZeOIcBw==

state==NJ

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:xM5TNjsfaVJlVWmRhm1XKA==

state==NM

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:V319mozENEhZ68kRY8JxVQ==

state==NV

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:sVTJgWCjsJhF+OWTUTZfTw==

state==NY

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:rbfBUgCNQrisF/gIjE43xw==

state==OH

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:YT4bQR8USYPfXHIqkihi8A==

state==OK

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:xQ2faiKqP/fLH2QyW34GCg==

state==OR

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:gqbYpd2Q3qH5C9sHP1H9Qw==

state==PA

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:HKUbSVd3Fb1aljoJoJXmRg==

state==RI

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Ma0DD4lPnw9jxyFCd5pYOQ==

state==SC

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:SNMFld6khJJD6uidq4jlVw==

state==SD

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ihs5wOn9xj2BeNiShEdRDQ==

state==TN

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:1F5qTgNDxJJZMrY3n5t8dQ==

state==TX

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ckZsjxqB+9EA32onFBX/ag==

state==UT

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:nq3iBRGK80vgP4NvJ+QDtQ==

state==VA

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:NPBzFcYQ7Jth3dSzJ/aOJQ==

state==VT

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Gwmcw/ywyU69HBOWGu81xQ==

state==WA

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:agaScQ2FHtFFqxV6tnC8/A==

state==WI

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:MCJ6KFwRRTfnt6sigY8VbA==

state==WV

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vIps612XWahmdkfmE0ms6Q==

state==WY

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:vr+6xINdU276RUE0TvgSfg==

state of residence

f2533819 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
9.	FL	79
36.	OK	15
8.	DE	3
48.	WI	24
35.	OH	72
31.	NJ	29
24.	MO	34
20.	MD	25
5.	CA	194
10.	GA	66
7.	CT	11
26.	MT	6
43.	TX	101
19.	MA	50
22.	MI	56
25.	MS	8
16.	KS	27
14.	IL	34
3.	AR	21
28.	ND	5
6.	CO	29
2.	AL	23
18.	LA	14
40.	SC	10
29.	NE	4
38.	PA	90
4.	AZ	33
15.	IN	22
1.	AK	13
21.	ME	11
34.	NY	47
17.	KY	12
42.	TN	25
27.	NC	23
47.	WA	46
46.	VT	2
30.	NH	4
12.	IA	10
41.	SD	3
39.	RI	7
23.	MN	35
45.	VA	25
49.	WV	6
32.	NM	13
37.	OR	48
33.	NV	17
13.	ID	7
44.	UT	21
50.	WY	6
11.	HI	3

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:AsXRuBQeaQABjsvZvEDOoQ==

Strong R

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:AUxbJ2oDdSKJODpp53883A==

Weak/Lean R

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:CYd9O9XZA95MJZ1r2W+nIQ==

Weak/Lean D

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:o3KSlpC5HcT2H0CjMg5Rwg==

Strong D

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:OX36vpbfmOkmki5EJnb+vw==

post_log_holidayspend

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:hTOc82w+Mdd1cWF/BAN5wA==

pre_log_holidayspend

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Run8q3PBd6mCbHzBTRCSsg==

Log Change in Holiday Spending

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:dukO/qhkIF9SxbL15yruPg==

post_log_vacationspend

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:4VhOOYgHh0yG6rVIlv1Bpg==

pre_log_vacationspend

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:aZjuz08uXn0+Hxx02SRhjA==

Log Change in Vacation Spending

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Z4z74hEA+brj0b71oD6EfQ==

pre_happy== 1.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:TfdpsXgKSrfU0mwQrEkpjw==

pre_happy== 2.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:xvDBMcxBFLzysfu817OSWg==

pre_happy== 3.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:19x0//MsUODrTPChq6uZ5w==

pre_hhincomeforecast== -1.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:QQBo3CDkyDf1aVzTllLPRw==

pre_hhincomeforecast== 0.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:KaIT9N97nmz4Z1KZuWSqBA==

pre_hhincomeforecast== 1.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:q05gF1di8T5/51Si+QRN9g==

pre_hhincomeforecast== 2.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:XHO1YFhH120S78pG0P22ZA==

pre_nationaleconforecast== -1.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:JC8NaXiPxS9mHmumwdzFrA==

pre_nationaleconforecast== 0.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:JRTpWYwhfvWa+1xku1GknQ==

pre_nationaleconforecast== 1.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:0uTrxkwH3SyEgU77YVONdw==

pre_nationaleconforecast== 2.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Vu9e6QsQrFrLvrW08uDFlg==

pre_stateeconforecast== -1.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:VaihkcZLQJhlckaqmZuO9g==

pre_stateeconforecast== 0.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:nsSZFFMzjUGgvD8WmgqCSQ==

pre_stateeconforecast== 1.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:rtKmOuAiSQ+tS/jjqwO/Kg==

pre_stateeconforecast== 2.0000

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:RCF2ADvakFHUihhlTXbNuQ==

Uncertain Gov. Elec.

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:eF3ij5xOgJkYqnDr1NF9Sg==

Post-election Governor's Party (1=Dem., 0=No elec., -1=Rep.)

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:Sr86q7ZwCudR8DK8tQfESQ==

Uncertain Governor Election

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:eF3ij5xOgJkYqnDr1NF9Sg==

Uncertain Governor Election x Post-election Governor's Party

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:OfbFItVv2roVPFo/2Vu4/Q==

Uncertain Governor Election x Party ID

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:slI7XpEnILhKIClnx6ckTg==

Post-election Governor's Party x Party ID

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:OEZnIUVsM2fjTMcOJfLr9A==

Uncertain Governor Election x Post-election Governor's Party x Party ID

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:k8VOVqWe6OKNT8IeVCrrkA==

summforme

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:f0/uFWQKzIchsO4ZWCgKnw==

Fitted values

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:YnF58gvIJIO0pjfnXih8qg==

Fitted values

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:cF8n9xpK2Nl1hs0zj4Zl4A==

f2533819 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:yl0X74WP3BbD48ws3IT0nA==

country

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:5:YtxnV5NNJd2dSX6eqJQWfg==

year

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:9CslVi0qC7eZx1IuZ4PJhQ==

Fvar5

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:whghGwDTYPEkAd/0AHz5nw==

var5

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:eli5TU2TPozUL+Zb02pz/Q==

market

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:8CQGu7kOi2m44rLbOgZgcg==

lgdppc

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:p/0oX20vrxtLwqKkCC7Lpw==

gdpgrowt

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:D0nSuhmLlQXTA46286gM5w==

tradeofg

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:hQOk1zxg0py4MmV+97yjyA==

overallb

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:zlDrnR1HKimRvmQYNwj51g==

generalg

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:D6/Aw+BnP1UGrScUPlpWqQ==

regime

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:ZGadFpFjYDIdtXRBeCrv6Q==

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:WKFloTSSsbVaGntXlUszxA==

f2533818 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:5:RZdjn9nP8THP3o2e9Wqr8A==

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