Replication Data for: Leaders' Cognitive Complexity, Distrust, and the Diversionary Use of Force (doi:10.7910/DVN/59HSGE)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
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Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Leaders' Cognitive Complexity, Distrust, and the Diversionary Use of Force

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/59HSGE

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2016-04-14

Version:

1

Bibliographic Citation:

Dennis Foster; Jonathan Keller, 2016, "Replication Data for: Leaders' Cognitive Complexity, Distrust, and the Diversionary Use of Force", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/59HSGE, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:UEGTYH3IrCMl12weQvALDw== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Leaders' Cognitive Complexity, Distrust, and the Diversionary Use of Force

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/59HSGE

Authoring Entity:

Dennis Foster (VMI - International Studies)

Jonathan Keller (James Madison University)

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Access Authority:

Replication, FPA

Depositor:

Replication, FPA

Date of Deposit:

2016-04-14

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/59HSGE

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences

Abstract:

Some scholars have suggested that when faced with domestic political problems, leaders employ simplified decision processes, preferring action to deliberation and highly visible diversionary uses of force to alternative policies. Others contend that domestically embattled leaders will pursue a more rational examination of the costs and benefits of various options—the sort of deliberation that will lead them to reject diversionary force in favor of less risky measures. Drawing on research in political psychology, we argue that leaders’ cognitive processes are not constants but variables, and that both models are correct under certain circumstances. Leaders low in conceptual complexity, and especially those with hawkish leanings, will pursue simplified decision making procedures and embrace diversionary strategies, while leaders who are high in complexity will pursue a more thorough consideration of risks and alternatives and generally avoid diversionary actions. We examine these expectations by testing the interactive effect of economic misery and leaders’ conceptual complexity on American force usage for the period 1953-2000. The findings indicate that more conceptually simple leaders—particularly when high in distrust, a trait linked to more hawkish policy inclinations—are significantly more likely to engage in diversion.

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>

Other Study Description Materials

File Description--f2802355

File: Foster_Keller_FPArep_MID.tab

  • Number of cases: 27452

  • No. of variables per record: 20

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:PMY2XUyMDJwCsyOj88rTqQ==

File Description--f2802354

File: Foster_Keller_FPArep_uses.tab

  • Number of cases: 192

  • No. of variables per record: 14

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:eGiAlRtxDCERwdNP391WpQ==

Variable Description

List of Variables:
  • year - Year
  • yearq - Year/Qtr
  • ccode1 - 2
  • abbrev1 - US
  • ccode2 - Target ID
  • abbrev2 - Target Abbreviation
  • bi_in_in_2 - Incident Initiation (DV)
  • contig - Contiguity
  • s - S Alliance (global weighted)
  • demscore - POLITY score state 2
  • relpow - Relative Power (US:State2)
  • war - Ongoing US War
  • dempres - Democratic President
  • election - Period Preceding Election
  • unified - Unified Government
  • mislg - Misery Index (t-1)
  • ccspn_ovr - Conceptual Complexity (spontaneous speech, presidential avg)
  • disspn_ovr - Distrust (spontaneous speech, presidential avg.)
  • dspnov_mislg - Distrust * Lagged Misery
  • c_d_m - Conc. Complexity * Distrust * Lagged Misery
  • year - Year
  • quarter - Qtr
  • yearq - Year/Qtr
  • newforce - Major US Uses of Force (Howell/Pevehouse)
  • cinc - US CINC Score
  • war - Ongoing US War
  • dempres - Democratic President
  • election - Period Preceding Election
  • unified - Unified Government
  • mislg - Misery Index (t-1)
  • ccspn_ovr - Conceptual Complexity (spontaneous speech, pres. avg)
  • disspn_ovr - Distrust (spontaneous speech, pres. avg.)
  • dspnov_mislg - Distrust * Lagged Misery
  • c_d_m - Conc. Complexity * Distrust * Lagged Misery

Variables

Year

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 13.294560539939912; Max. 2000.0; Mean 1979.5689931516831; Valid 27452.0; Min. 1953.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XgNDc478bvNlMvl1jU53QQ==

Year/Qtr

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 19531.0; Valid 27452.0; StDev 132.95030665834335; Mean 19798.18993151683; Max. 20004.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:E7Yw6cBAros6rL3Zp6LIKQ==

2

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 2.0; Max. 2.0; StDev 0.0; Min. 2.0; Valid 27452.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:UL/Fm9usHoTFdr6uMepsBw==

US

f2802355 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:qh5XuzYHU680mTSbgPdQBQ==

Target ID

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 990.0; Valid 27452.0; Mean 454.2074894361687; Min. 20.0; StDev 253.2072260355365

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:LmqgTx8XLWH7ayzmcHS9ww==

Target Abbreviation

f2802355 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:6oc7eT/vrSdtIIWDH6H9uw==

Incident Initiation (DV)

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 3.0; StDev 0.09031449061896515; Valid 27452.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.00630190878624467

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:W6K62hw5Yi9JTe1751Uvug==

Contiguity

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 27452.0; Mean 5.883432901063615; StDev 0.6916232309937409; Max. 6.0; Min. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Q54ZiLrybnCJcA5C0YBU9w==

S Alliance (global weighted)

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.9153119921684265; Valid 27452.0; Mean 0.26217524161445643; Min. -0.6389300227165222; StDev 0.29951428638874317

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:CY0GtAAQ9XEFKEmFJU75eQ==

POLITY score state 2

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -10.0; StDev 7.462430972597909; Max. 10.0; Valid 24816.0; Mean -0.529335912314848

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:B2QnmyP841EjplrDRqZuDA==

Relative Power (US:State2)

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.9733004326095078; Min. 0.4367402493953705; Valid 27428.0; StDev 0.06165003366376182; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:r4cEPpkUJWlCxaXAvx/lxA==

Ongoing US War

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.20333673320705206; StDev 0.40248826967856993; Max. 1.0; Valid 27452.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:gIO00u4wojy6qGEthSwKfg==

Democratic President

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.4496575841468731; StDev 0.49746824620213953; Valid 27452.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XCEqi0Z5B1fwI5HoCN9f2Q==

Period Preceding Election

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.12858808101413408; Min. 0.0; Valid 27452.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.3347495606715455

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:1/XgQ/6q3n8hJFZcT0M5eQ==

Unified Government

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 27452.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.46216981618822417; Mean 0.30919422992860196

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:H+2JzIyMoncGaPfr6HRsng==

Misery Index (t-1)

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 21.799999237060547; Min. 2.4999990463256836; Mean 9.775780983904289; Valid 27452.0; StDev 3.9208503668811776

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TiFcV6WCceTjwTZ81Yl7eA==

Conceptual Complexity (spontaneous speech, presidential avg)

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.6853220462799072; Valid 27452.0; Min. 0.5824872851371765; Mean 0.6493949493496163; StDev 0.02855785602819697;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:lbF+Z/qlnmL8Ys66kCYPDA==

Distrust (spontaneous speech, presidential avg.)

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 27452.0; Mean 0.11692096488654798; Min. 0.06934931129217148; StDev 0.0351818259923974; Max. 0.16984304785728455

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:NMFI5U6rGSB6aqKEI+qFyg==

Distrust * Lagged Misery

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.5453021614281075; Mean 1.1288361932024422; Valid 27452.0; Max. 2.870347499847412; Min. 0.35136520862579346

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:fYuD3GhO+F15q3NNkAblcA==

Conc. Complexity * Distrust * Lagged Misery

f2802355 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.7379155322457724; Max. 1.9582159519195557; StDev 0.37040113776847006; Valid 27452.0; Min. 0.23676797747612

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ZBHyRV5LQD1tokwIjPrmBQ==

Year

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 13.889617200217808; Min. 1953.0; Mean 1976.5; Valid 192.0; Max. 2000.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XqI11aefD18122gDimyhyA==

Qtr

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; Max. 4.0; Mean 2.5; StDev 1.1209569584144616; Valid 192.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:slSWqiB+RUoi8NKidjCe/Q==

Year/Qtr

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 19767.5; Max. 20004.0; StDev 138.90069525154024; Min. 19531.0; Valid 192.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:RtsQD3vAlxh3mvVxiwGA8w==

Major US Uses of Force (Howell/Pevehouse)

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.8920215486640308; Valid 192.0; Max. 5.0; Mean 0.6770833333333331; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:PgkdYC7rAuMDOV0Gro+LCw==

US CINC Score

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.13552500307559967; Valid 192.0; StDev 0.039263630147583724; Max. 0.3019219934940338; Mean 0.1827876468499501

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:d14wBFBWz5SLZUX+bS0qVw==

Ongoing US War

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.1979166666666666; StDev 0.39947063575526376; Max. 1.0; Valid 192.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:OcC1EPcvj7tn0EME5zeCOw==

Democratic President

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 192.0; Mean 0.4166666666666667; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4942955570620068

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:pnAwEKCQcVpg5z7R6X/0tg==

Period Preceding Election

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 0.12565445026178013; Valid 191.0; StDev 0.33233063113108574; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:no7UwYmq6bNFS4iuhMGmrw==

Unified Government

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.3333333333333333; Valid 192.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4726369530139136; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:GbTGWCB4B5HgqlVEgSDAOQ==

Misery Index (t-1)

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 3.8969870544749727; Max. 21.799999237060547; Min. 2.9000000953674316; Valid 191.0; Mean 9.595814618764749;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:5vnR+AaiP4fhZ6aSF1XzUw==

Conceptual Complexity (spontaneous speech, pres. avg)

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.5824872851371765; Valid 192.0; Mean 0.6449850648641586; Max. 0.6853220462799072; StDev 0.03312137815879888

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:+4qj4D31YWiDMVpQhi2jxw==

Distrust (spontaneous speech, pres. avg.)

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 192.0; StDev 0.04003597543989045; Max. 0.16984304785728455; Min. 0.06934931129217148; Mean 0.12103153039546063

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:IA3TXS6OSFPrRvkkRkv+fw==

Distrust * Lagged Misery

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 2.9942691326141357; StDev 0.6013647597531919; Min. 0.3962603509426117; Mean 1.1604323301327795; Valid 191.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:PkUnaRP6i6GsxcAgW8Hgow==

Conc. Complexity * Distrust * Lagged Misery

f2802354 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.9645026922225952; StDev 0.40781392048534515; Min. 0.25441551208496094; Valid 191.0; Mean 0.7551902565344467;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ELyT55ThVf3MQajGvbSN2Q==

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

Foster_Keller_FPArep_MID.log

Notes:

application/octet-stream

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

Foster_Keller_FPArep_uses.log

Notes:

application/octet-stream