Replication Data for: A Careful Consideration of CLARIFY: Simulation-Induced Bias in Point Estimates of Quantities of Interest (doi:10.7910/DVN/5YKD4S)

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Replication Data for: A Careful Consideration of CLARIFY: Simulation-Induced Bias in Point Estimates of Quantities of Interest

doi:10.7910/DVN/5YKD4S

Harvard Dataverse

2023-01-02

1

Rainey, Carlisle, 2023, "Replication Data for: A Careful Consideration of CLARIFY: Simulation-Induced Bias in Point Estimates of Quantities of Interest", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/5YKD4S, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:Mq5ODtovYN5cqkyhjVqx1g== [fileUNF]

Replication Data for: A Careful Consideration of CLARIFY: Simulation-Induced Bias in Point Estimates of Quantities of Interest

doi:10.7910/DVN/5YKD4S

Rainey, Carlisle (Florida State University)

Rainey, Carlisle

Harvard Dataverse

Rainey, Carlisle

Rainey, Carlisle

2022-12-13

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/5YKD4S

Social Sciences

Some work in political methodology recommends that applied researchers obtain point estimates of quantities of interest by simulating model coefficients, transforming these simulated coefficients into simulated quantities of interest, and then averaging the simulated quantities of interest (e.g., CLARIFY). But other work advises applied researchers to directly transform coefficient estimates to estimate quantities of interest. I point out that these two approaches are not interchangeable and examine their properties. I show that the simulation approach compounds the transformation-induced bias identified by Rainey (2017), adding bias with direction and magnitude similar to the transformation-induced bias. I refer to this easily-avoided additional bias as "simulation-induced bias." Even if researchers use simulation to estimate standard errors, they should directly transform maximum likelihood estimates of coefficient estimates to obtain point estimates of quantities of interest.

• Number of cases: 89

• No. of variables per record: 21

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:c7vX0RMy4W0YNrdQleZXsg==

• Number of cases: 3

• No. of variables per record: 2

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:LPpIo8xee5JLquvK9JsU4g==

• city
• district
• operations
• lower
• vendors
• budget
• population
• margin
• right
• arrests
• reports
• poordistrict
• costs - costs
• corruption
• constraint
• poor
• police
• employees
• tax
• salary
• vendorsalt
• city - city
• med - med

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f6833929 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:6+TBgHh+zmJ/BuYfYAF5sA==

f6833929 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 89.0; Min. 0.0; Max. 65.0; StDev 15.691467919700004; Mean 12.32584269662922;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:SmQsIjmiw3dQS4Peg71jAw==

f6833929 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.009999999776482582; Valid 89.0; Mean 41.62462926955287; Max. 99.0999984741211; StDev 24.77353631110761;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:UufxR03DoE7l5ek53FOdsA==

f6833929 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 89.0; Max. 20.0; Mean 2.7370786545484247; StDev 3.579366125868842; Min. 0.009999999776482582

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:tEEv7eVjIAdDvTM11q5s9Q==

f6833929 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 249.35078580191964; Max. 2273.18994140625; StDev 314.78929322453513; Min. 36.34000015258789; Valid 89.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:qdNgPTQpqse+8Tu29Z5nAA==

f6833929 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 95.1072998046875; Mean 23.854130294885532; Valid 89.0; Min. 2.2620999813079834; StDev 21.365584920867757

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:4YpxnEuvpybYicu4N6MQiQ==

f6833929 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 70.0; StDev 15.218040706448964; Max. 59.150001525878906; Mean 19.20857139485223; Min. 0.3100000023841858;

Variable Format: numeric

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f6833929 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.5294117647058824; StDev 0.5066403971048988; Valid 34.0; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:GDWWEwM2tXn53h+3gKVxWg==

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Summary Statistics: StDev 4.764512502625664; Mean 5.840235327973085; Valid 34.0; Max. 27.992000579833984; Min. 1.4249999523162842;

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: Min. 8.847999572753906; Valid 34.0; Max. 104.2300033569336; Mean 23.95155892652624; StDev 18.637058560192646;

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Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Valid 89.0; Mean 0.46067415730337075; StDev 0.5012751869727502; Max. 1.0

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Summary Statistics: Valid 89.0; Max. 10.0; Min. 1.0; StDev 2.9369437186533354; Mean 4.741573033707865

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: Max. 10.0; Min. 1.0; Mean 7.61797752808989; Valid 89.0; StDev 3.098774017023536

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: Mean 6.314606741573034; StDev 3.38309804770843; Max. 10.0; Valid 89.0; Min. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: Valid 89.0; StDev 10.498216069785489; Min. 0.20000000298023224; Mean 16.48651676984985; Max. 43.5;

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 4.6643739199782015; Max. 18.0; Valid 89.0; Mean 7.247191011235959;

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: Valid 70.0; Mean 5.027857182707104; StDev 5.661631716273843; Min. 0.49000000953674316; Max. 33.33000183105469

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: Max. 312.6189880371094; Min. 1.1758899688720703; Valid 89.0; Mean 21.97146165236998; StDev 38.555554234347575

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: StDev 6336.770621403853; Min. 979.9597778320312; Mean 9005.288632638116; Valid 70.0; Max. 28851.677734375;

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Valid 89.0; Max. 52.40999984741211; Mean 4.636550558919322; StDev 7.67671281724687

Variable Format: numeric

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Variable Format: character

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f6833933 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -0.3663396177097734; Mean -0.1495668149037803; Valid 3.0; Max. -0.023441371728180622; StDev 0.18856698976831718;

Variable Format: numeric

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fig1-intuition.pdf

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