Replication Data for: A Long-Range State-Level Forecast of the 2020 Presidential Election (doi:10.7910/DVN/6GWHQB)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Entire Codebook

Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: A Long-Range State-Level Forecast of the 2020 Presidential Election

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/6GWHQB

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2020-09-18

Version:

Bibliographic Citation:

DeSart, Jay, 2020, "Replication Data for: A Long-Range State-Level Forecast of the 2020 Presidential Election", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/6GWHQB, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:1VK3Ubh0iyz5ppZbWK6orw== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: A Long-Range State-Level Forecast of the 2020 Presidential Election

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/6GWHQB

Authoring Entity:

DeSart, Jay (Utah Valley University)

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Access Authority:

DeSart, Jay

Depositor:

DeSart, Jay

Date of Deposit:

2020-09-13

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/6GWHQB

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences

Abstract:

Most U.S. presidential election forecast models produce forecasts three to five months in advance of the election, and often only generate a prediction of the national popular vote. This paper presents a model that generates predictions of state-level outcomes a year in advance of the election, which can then be extrapolated up to national popular vote and Electoral College projections. This model suggests a high probability of Biden victory in 2020.

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

Other Study Description Materials

File Description--f4064801

File: DeSart PS 2020 Long-Range Forecast Data.tab

Number of cases: 300
No. of variables per record: 15
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:QhyDsTMImY6ppmeCvwandg==

State-level Presidential Election data 1996-2016 used to generate long range forecast coefficients

File Description--f4064800

File: PS - DeSart 2020 Predictions.tab

Number of cases: 51
No. of variables per record: 10
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:e3NV4mIBGGjWYAZYi/vr+A==

October 2019 data used to generate the long-range forecast for 2020.

Variable Description

List of Variables:

State
Year - Year
ecvotes - Electoral Votes
TOweight
Result - Actual Result
Previous - Prior Result
ActWin - Actual Winner
Home - Home State
RegimeAge - Regime Age
NatlPoll - October National Polls
PRE_2 - In-Sample Prediction
RES_2 - In-Sample Prediction Error
abserr - Absolute In-Sample Prediction Error
predwin - In-Sample Predicted Winner
Incorrect - Incorrect In-Sample State Prediction
State
turnout - Turnout Weight
Previous - Prior Outcome
OctBiden - National Polls
HomeBiden - Home State Advantage
RegimeAge - Regime Age
ecvotes - Electoral votes
forecast - Forecast
predwin - State Predicted Winner
winprob - Biden Win Probability

Variables

State

f4064801 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:VddvRYC+bs3kYuL3ofqJOA==

Year

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 300.0; Mean 2006.0; Min. 1996.0; Max. 2016.0; StDev 6.8427145545402075;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:VLBZ6YVgzulw74qUo+4h9Q==

Electoral Votes

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 55.0; Min. 3.0; StDev 9.547452338390924; Mean 10.7; Valid 300.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:CWmCjHccZ8GW4QizjIPA1w==

TOweight

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.01983990578382273; Valid 300.0; Max. 0.107501244; Mean 0.019999999986666666; Min. 0.001932732

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:1lqyttHz2mNhxxzJkNzKWA==

Actual Result

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 24.29468037; Valid 300.0; StDev 9.707447105934147; Mean 48.995992465533334; Max. 72.9937;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:++jqVWuOR2+PE+Tpg6PwQQ==

Prior Result

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 8.985065114939115; Mean 49.78113904213333; Valid 300.0; Min. 25.4617; Max. 72.9937

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:BGe03UZx/aFJbCsSNX35Iw==

Actual Winner

f4064801 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
2.	Democrat	144
1.	Republican	156

Summary Statistics: Max. 2.0; Mean 1.48; StDev 0.5004345937369803; Valid 300.0; Min. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ylWcPzneJGfh7r7u35notw==

Home State

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. -1.0; Valid 300.0; StDev 0.22395552194185642; Mean -0.003333333333333328;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:7rB57KntHY4/7zas9paWrg==

Regime Age

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.5025062674119; Valid 300.0; Min. -2.0; Max. 2.0; Mean 0.5

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:X13S9yJFELVmXgZxRzCSwg==

October National Polls

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 42.83010575; Mean 49.79659117166667; Max. 54.52674897; StDev 3.7546251448133545; Valid 300.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TOuxcK5mLIOkgAaib8q/hQ==

In-Sample Prediction

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 300.0; Mean 48.995992465533334; Max. 72.76295960176923; StDev 9.169789920576775; Min. 22.838371180456832

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:KV0DMNxXqsyNS7y6Y43C4Q==

In-Sample Prediction Error

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 300.0; Max. 14.777970609543168; Min. -9.798633717810013; Mean -2.3092638912203257E-16; StDev 3.185825187764992

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:KEZgIHelD0nzXMoU/kp2aA==

Absolute In-Sample Prediction Error

f4064801 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.012236085351212012; Mean 2.4330462449189105; Max. 14.777970609543168; StDev 2.05182107465584; Valid 300.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:qkhCb1+AwWRWBJIkMh6JFQ==

In-Sample Predicted Winner

f4064801 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
1.	Republican	156
2.	Democrat	144

Summary Statistics: Valid 300.0; Mean 1.4799999999999998; Min. 1.0; StDev 0.5004345937369803; Max. 2.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:QVvrhJ0adLwtM2ouy6E59Q==

Incorrect In-Sample State Prediction

f4064801 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
0.	Correct	276
1.	Incorrect	24

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.07999999999999995; Valid 300.0; StDev 0.27174648819470204; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:S0llgbsHC7fhg6VPOeTAng==

State

f4064800 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:WggV6jwYXZG6Cbz5aH9RzA==

Turnout Weight

f4064800 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.0196078431372549; Max. 0.102386474; Valid 51.0; StDev 0.01987052178178305; Min. 0.001900729

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:E7PlvKoxQqXn5yo5ZawaZw==

Prior Outcome

f4064800 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 47.98497567647059; Max. 95.69518834; StDev 12.80454827574124; Valid 51.0; Min. 24.29468037;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Rz+J+Oon9GYkSc1WxVJtog==

National Polls

f4064800 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 54.87721945; Valid 51.0; StDev 0.0; Mean 54.87721945; Max. 54.87721945

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:vaGO2ZLmwDEn498sWCrWZw==

Home State Advantage

f4064800 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 51.0; Mean 0.0; StDev 0.2; Min. -1.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:MWuCqSvtbEUCfOWuZTNN8g==

Regime Age

f4064800 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -1.0; Max. -1.0; Mean -1.0; StDev 0.0; Valid 51.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:SYZexi0RbTLTzMcck/y7Cg==

Electoral votes

f4064800 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 51.0; Min. 3.0; Max. 55.0; StDev 9.685687844423224; Mean 10.549019607843137

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zjS43rxKpjgPAdwvJ9DBDQ==

Forecast

f4064800 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 100.0; Mean 51.75282807435579; StDev 13.097388351683488; Min. 27.395379897845967; Valid 51.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:PuXl4DKpIW+/zxA6L+vnfA==

State Predicted Winner

f4064800 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
1.	Trump	23
2.	Biden	28

Summary Statistics: Valid 51.0; Min. 1.0; Max. 2.0; StDev 0.5025425550218042; Mean 1.5490196078431373

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:tjZ7uFM6oM/w02yV/srkAw==

Biden Win Probability

f4064800 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 51.0; Min. 9.091494086344189E-13; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.4527917587668476; Mean 0.5423298961805113

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:grThcHWNT/4jYC+XZTQhZA==