Replication Data for: Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model (doi:10.7910/DVN/ADMBN9)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
Entire Codebook

Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/ADMBN9

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2020-08-27

Version:

1

Bibliographic Citation:

Enns, Peter; Lagodny, Julius, 2020, "Replication Data for: Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ADMBN9, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:+mvcsYQzLV1YbkOZLx07zQ== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/ADMBN9

Authoring Entity:

Enns, Peter (Cornell University)

Lagodny, Julius (Cornell University)

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Access Authority:

Enns, Peter

Depositor:

Enns, Peter

Date of Deposit:

2020-08-26

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ADMBN9

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences

Abstract:

To forecast the 2020 Electoral College winner, we develop a model of two-party Democratic vote share in each state (plus Washington DC) based primarily on each state's presidential approval ratings and economic conditions. 104 days before the election, our model forecasts about a 4 in 10 chance that Donald Trump is re-elected and about a 6 in 10 chance that Joe Biden is the next president.

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>

Other Study Description Materials

File Description--f4034696

File: EnnsLagodny_PS_Forecast2020.tab

  • Number of cases: 959

  • No. of variables per record: 33

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:+mvcsYQzLV1YbkOZLx07zQ==

Variable Description

List of Variables:

Variables

State

f4034696 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:+fmt5Nes+csPDysthrj2KQ==

year

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 959.0; Mean 1984.3253388946819; StDev 21.796422257815173; Min. 1948.0; Max. 2020.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:uAcmo8rS1Gy+y5LgDs9dow==

PerDem2Party

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 20.06339454650879; StDev 11.054744313203418; Valid 612.0; Mean 47.33039246665107; Max. 95.69246673583984

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ZttSZ4phEA+xYtsADcGsZw==

PerRep2Party

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 79.93660736083984; Min. 4.307530403137207; StDev 11.054744342170894; Valid 612.0; Mean 52.6696075910057;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Te48OEv5MbvTMqj87dGgNg==

cstate_initial

f4034696 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:IZ6QAUa8+An6zjSO8/p90w==

state_initnum

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 14.669417430502541; Valid 959.0; Mean 26.19708029197097; Min. 1.0; Max. 51.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:GxlKntAlHhxsbKvQHThDMQ==

cstate_name

f4034696 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:QXlWDArI7UrCDfjwbavmyw==

democrat_incumbent

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 663.0; StDev 0.4868715670939586; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.38461538461538464

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:BrLgJIilO2319Lhu+QCVfw==

republican_incumbent

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4868715670939586; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.6153846153846154; Valid 663.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:G/ztcHAaKLjfs+LNnMCgOg==

adj. for incumbent party & cons

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 32.94373321533203; StDev 11.11536526997741; Min. -20.85409164428711; Valid 612.0; Mean 1.982878759783366

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TSFr+J32xMabzu0+vxZAmQ==

wtd cum. % ch. adj. for inc. party

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.7445744797671426; Mean 0.1174546628604217; Valid 561.0; Min. -1.6834750175476074; Max. 6.634747505187988

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:7x2/vFW6emdjTmh+DGK9Og==

Cwt_52_d_

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.7871653993026552; Max. 7.086670875549316; Min. -1.7255462408065796; Mean 0.12688066694410707; Valid 561.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:rbWRe7ND4CAOhG05BTTh0g==

Cwt_53_d_

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -1.7116645574569702; Mean 0.12371909359483306; StDev 0.7729723925874408; Max. 6.936117649078369; Valid 561.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zMJXipyUzkFmEFfL+jtB3w==

Cwt_54_d_

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 561.0; Max. 6.785472869873047; StDev 0.7587749874981246; Mean 0.12057660230719301; Min. -1.6976385116577148

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:KB0xYU7BZjP5yL4uwrg3jQ==

Cwt_55_d_

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 561.0; Max. 6.634747505187988; Min. -1.6834750175476074; StDev 0.7445744797671426; Mean 0.1174546628604217;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:7x2/vFW6emdjTmh+DGK9Og==

Cwt_56_d_

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 6.483954429626465; Min. -1.6691815853118896; StDev 0.7303724009227845; Valid 561.0; Mean 0.11435478149146268

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:lrDqbVs8uaP7DoM5yopPPQ==

Cwt_57_d_

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 6.3331098556518555; StDev 0.7161705922380222; Min. -1.6547654867172241; Valid 561.0; Mean 0.11127851305694647

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Gq0AugvmZxyD/6g1anxu9g==

Cwt_58_d_

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.7019712270400149; Max. 6.182231426239014; Valid 561.0; Mean 0.10822745056909211; Min. -1.6402342319488525

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:6mGD+s17kaO6kBngiZrWPA==

state_initial

f4034696 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:SNgQPf0MduUlxcZPwZy2RA==

president_democrat

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 230.0; Max. 55.0; Min. 1.0; StDev 10.639189282343487; Mean 11.639130434782611

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:yh0snOZEXR0YU+ra/UdEJg==

president_republican

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 47.0; Valid 384.0; StDev 8.353658443376691; Mean 9.809895833333334; Min. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:vwMFA8w1F3hwKM8voqdnLA==

president_other

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; Valid 5.0; StDev 0.44721359549995804; Mean 1.2; Max. 2.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:xx+cQXqJCyi4w90LkTPFMw==

total_electoral

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 55.0; Valid 663.0; Min. 3.0; Mean 10.54901960784313; StDev 9.333543838123063

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:jATyYbVjdEU0PEDPdPlFyA==

incumbent_p_state

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.0; Min. -1.0; Valid 959.0; StDev 0.19385120092537153

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:VxqR9ZQwcd7pr5CN6vfKgg==

incumbent_vp_state

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.0010427528675704487; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.1911370144570279; Valid 959.0; Min. -1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:uGnM7n0NYtqV35yUVfiuMg==

democrat_p_state

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.0; Max. 1.0; Min. -1.0; Valid 959.0; StDev 0.19385120092537153;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Rptra9bU9ciA7pidrZHhIg==

democrat_vp_state

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean -0.0010427528675703314; Min. -1.0; Valid 959.0; StDev 0.19113701445702758; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Pk8xCbLff5jP8LjgwbO8vw==

natperdem

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 612.0; Min. 38.211631774902344; Mean 48.738580067952476; StDev 5.029117635223649; Max. 54.730403900146484;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Rlq+cdGwfyAEfZGzUcxsNg==

PerDem2Party_dev

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -26.814680099487305; Valid 612.0; Max. 45.314151763916016; Mean -1.4081876013014158; StDev 9.90978575164334

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:/lCOuWtspK8RI3FgYT1Bfg==

Anderson

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.3667798711062721; StDev 1.744557789213778; Max. 15.15427303314209; Min. 0.0; Valid 959.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:6HFkD0/zbKQ2tFZoRTxWfA==

Perot1

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 959.0; Mean 1.0376202615135282; Min. 0.0; Max. 30.437129974365234; StDev 4.576926880051149

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:td/4wkF+B5mUoqSZwMG7FQ==

Perot2

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 14.18887996673584; StDev 2.0818912485434784; Valid 959.0; Mean 0.47592835083246465; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:yIXX8PuIQx+uoZPeuvx22g==

south_conf

f4034696 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.41305864555496824; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.21793534932221043; Max. 1.0; Valid 959.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:koIGdFCon0TxI9krLxc98Q==

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

EnnsLagodny_PS_Replication.do

Notes:

application/x-stata-syntax