Getting to Yes: The Role of Creditor Coordination in Debt Restructuring Negotiations (doi:10.7910/DVN/CKNSCK)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
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Document Description

Citation

Title:

Getting to Yes: The Role of Creditor Coordination in Debt Restructuring Negotiations

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/CKNSCK

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2023-08-03

Version:

Bibliographic Citation:

Ferry, Lauren Lee, 2023, "Getting to Yes: The Role of Creditor Coordination in Debt Restructuring Negotiations", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CKNSCK, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:aIHSBF3m6+9Q39uW/CxcOw== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Getting to Yes: The Role of Creditor Coordination in Debt Restructuring Negotiations

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/CKNSCK

Authoring Entity:

Ferry, Lauren Lee (University of Mississippi)

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Access Authority:

Interactions, International

Depositor:

Interactions, International

Date of Deposit:

2022-11-18

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CKNSCK

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences, sovereign debt, debt restructuring, London Club

Abstract:

How do indebted governments restructure their debts with private creditors? What explains variation in indebted states’ negotiating behavior? Existing explanations of debt restructuring have largely treated creditors as a profit-maximizing monolith; Yet creditors have different exposures, ties to borrowers and roles in the international banking system. Inter-creditor disputes are common. In this paper, I argue that because institutional norms dictate burden sharing, the makeup of the creditor group matters for indebted states' negotiating behavior. The requirement of near-consensus decision-making allows almost any creditor to hold up negotiations. It limits the outcome to what the most reluctant creditors will agree to. Debtor governments are aware of compositional issues and where coordination is most difficult ex-ante, they can use more coercive behaviors to bring reluctant creditors into the fold. I focus on publicly issued declarations of default as one such tool. Using existing data on public moratoriums alongside original data on creditor composition, I find that governments are more likely to publicly announce default as the number of creditors involved in a restructuring increases. The findings imply that who the government is bargaining against matters for how they choose to bargain.

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Other Study Description Materials

File Description--f6712080

File: II_2022_data_crisis.tab

Number of cases: 77
No. of variables per record: 53
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:0J+ATPXMhC+g216j9y+q4Q==

File Description--f6712078

File: II_2022_data_full.tab

Number of cases: 8229
No. of variables per record: 65
Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:p7H3MBKgDm7uFW6uHoeC1Q==

Variable Description

List of Variables:

restructuring_episode
ccode - ccode
year - year
americas - Americas
europe - Europe
africa - Africa
middleeast - Middle East
asia - Asia
decade80 - 80s
decade90 - 90s
decade00 - 00s
declaration - Public default declaration (any year)
imf_prog5 - Under IMF program (any year)
yrsdef - Years in default (at time of restructuring)
_hmons_5yr - Previous structure (last 5 years)
US_chair - US chair
exec_left_new - Left Leader (any year)
Bond_Exchange - Bond Exchange
threats - Public threats of default (any year)
yrsoffc_PI - Years in office (at time of restructuring)
UK_chair - UK chair
Germany_chair - (max) Germany_chair
France_chair - France chair
Canada_chair - Canada chair
Austria_chair - Austria chair
num_banks_high - Number of creditors (high)
num_banks_high_log - Number of creditors (high, log)
num_banks_low - Number of creditors (low)
num_banks_low_log - Number of creditors (low, log)
lndebtGDP - Debt (% GDP), mean
trade_wdi - Trade(% GDP), mean
lngdppc_wdi_pw - GDP per capita (log), mean
checks - Veto players, mean
polity2_p4 - Polity, mean
lvau_garriga_cbi - CBI, mean
fedfunds - Federal funds rate, mean
inflation_wdi - Inflation, mean
growth_wdi_pw - Growth, mean
regionavg_debtGDP - Regional Debt (% Regional GDP), mean
lngdp_wdi_pw - GDP (log), mean
lnpop_wdi_pw - Population (log), mean
midist - Distance from US (mi)
preferred_haircut4_low - Haircut (%)
num_committee - Number of creditors on BAC
perc_banks_committee - % creditors on BAC
coercindex - Coerciveness index, mean
unemployment_nationalestimate - Unemployment (%), mean
debt_serv_exp - Debt service (% exports),mean
reserves_monthsofimports - Official reserves, months of imports, mean
Debt_Restructured_low - Debt restructured (mil USD)
Creditor_holdup - Creditor_holdup
perc_country_MC - % US bank claims held by LFIs
debt_restructrued_low_ln - Debt restructured (mil USD, log)
restructuring_episode
ccode
year - Year
countryname - Country Name
decade80
decade90
decade00
americas
europe
africa
middleeast
asia
checks - Veto Players
haircut - Entered restructuring
yrsdef - Years in Default
lndebtGDP - Debt (%GDP, log)
regionavg_debtGDP - Regional Debt-to-GDP
exec_left_new - Left Leader
_hmons_5yr - Previous Restructure
lvau_garriga_cbi - CBI
polity2_p4 - Democracy
inflation_wdi - Inflation (%)
trade_wdi - Trade (% GDP)
growth_wdi_pw - Growth (%)
lnpop_wdi_pw - Population (log)
lngdp_wdi_pw - GDP (log)
lngdppc_wdi_pw - GDP per capita (log)
fedfunds - Federal funds rate
preferred_haircut4 - haircut (%)
declaration - Enderlein et al. - Subindicator: explicit moratorium or default declaration
onset - Onset of public declaration
coercindex - Enderlein et al. - Coerciveness Index (aggregate)
threats - Enderlein et al. - Subindicator: explicit threats to repudiate on debt
unemployment_nationalestimate - Unemployment (%)
yrsoffc_PI - Chief Executive Years in Office [DPI]
Bond_Exchange - Bond Exchange
US_chair - US chair
num_banks_low - Number banks (low)
num_banks_high - Number banks (high)
num_committee - Number of creditors on BAC
UK_chair - UK chair
Germany_chair - Germany chair
France_chair - France chair
Canada_chair - Canada chair
Austria_chair - Austria chair
perc_banks_committee - $\%$ Creditors represented on BAC
num_banks_high_log - Number of creditors (high, log)
num_banks_low_log - Number of creditors (low, log)
debt_serv_exp - Debt service (% expoorts)
reserves_monthsofimports - Reserves (months imports)
imf_prog5 - IMF program (5 months)
midist - Distance from US (mi)
codeid - Country code id
tz_in_default - In default or debt renegotiation
tz_dec - Enderlein et al. - Subindicator: explicit moratorium or default declaration
tz_bankingcrisis_onset - Banking crisis dummy, onset (Laeven/Valencia)
tz_openness - Sum of exports + imports (as % of GDP)
tz_delta_tot - Change in exports as capacity to import (WDI), const LCU
tz_govt_consumption - General government final consumption expenditure (annual % growth)
tz_inv_to_gdp - Investment to GDP in % (IMF data)
tz_real_growth_pc - Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita (in percent)
tz_chg_pop - Annual growth rate of population in percent (World Development Indicators)
tz_ln_pop - Log of total population in million (World Development Indicators)
tz_civil_liberties - Annual index value of the civil liberties index published by Freedom House
tz_sec_edu - Share of population that attained secondary schooling in percent (Barro and Lee,

Variables

restructuring_episode

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; StDev 22.582103611239848; Max. 78.0; Valid 76.0; Mean 39.0921052631579

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:LlvPu1Ac1tc84hFHxUp+1g==

ccode

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 302.10389610389626; StDev 246.0788055425583; Valid 77.0; Min. 42.0; Max. 990.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Ihjzkl9xF4z9V7pMIweMcA==

year

f6712080 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:pQulfK3hQJLqlGbkO508Vg==

Americas

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.5974025974025973; StDev 0.49363688603701644; Valid 77.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:VP5SWgyU0J2PnYeBHEawQg==

Europe

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 77.0; Mean 0.12987012987012983; StDev 0.3383648509900361; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:21EDPOMbCQP70YExyWGuoQ==

Africa

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 77.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.3986477484460185; Mean 0.19480519480519484; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:lV04Fvs8aYFf9PVdaW4ufw==

Middle East

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 77.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.05194805194805194; StDev 0.22337741817404583; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:OFwk4+tVFkExegtCxnGCVA==

Asia

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.26980664452011627; Valid 77.0; Mean 0.07792207792207805

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2r2b/nD+tiye38BWXfEwuw==

80s

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 76.0; Mean 0.75; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.43588989435406733; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Qu/BfijazKa8Dqn2tXpaZA==

90s

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Valid 76.0; StDev 0.48900184766270943; Mean 0.3815789473684211

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:/rjUEWntsd80GvUW7sdHwg==

00s

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.29109593282157536; Valid 76.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.09210526315789475; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:i1uOtbUXSCCGds7EUL0tjA==

Public default declaration (any year)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 0.35417311655633604; Valid 76.0; Mean 0.14473684210526314; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:5VWkEO3i1bamlxHu0ZTcaw==

Under IMF program (any year)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 77.0; Mean 0.8181818181818181; StDev 0.3882237799894313; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:F35wtcReorA04CjEOejJYA==

Years in default (at time of restructuring)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 37.0; Valid 77.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 6.7272727272727275; StDev 7.415553291697764

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TC5KzYXs7t8u2gyXzD5h/g==

Previous structure (last 5 years)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.49605415002188025; Min. 0.0; Valid 77.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.5844155844155845;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:KMmsA0a0UgQ7vfQiqzHi0A==

US chair

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.49894625804895293; Mean 0.5657894736842105; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Valid 76.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:yYrGrc+Y6ET6FgqymofjMg==

Left Leader (any year)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 77.0; Mean 0.3506493506493509; StDev 0.4803023654629545;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XMnFBQqr9Z/zoWOcxoEnFw==

Bond Exchange

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.32525293801011335; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.11842105263157894; Min. 0.0; Valid 76.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:P//O/SC5ZS4h8ta1LQEvlg==

Public threats of default (any year)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 76.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.4624496179291392; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.3026315789473684

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:lTFmZWfo9v3CTDdGzd6gnA==

Years in office (at time of restructuring)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; Max. 40.0; Valid 76.0; StDev 7.2111998660952334; Mean 6.8421052631578965

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:MAe6mgmE6N2IeK7XkTFEXA==

UK chair

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 76.0; StDev 0.4006573545930158; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.19736842105263155;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:foGxxUKJivJ2g8VdOyP+1Q==

(max) Germany_chair

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.22478059477960666; Valid 76.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.052631578947368446; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:LwfF2+I/AXn/dUyiNRYqbQ==

France chair

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.24956101809855233; Mean 0.06578947368421047; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 76.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:vFHvBDsS2zlMO//ZRFMbYw==

Canada chair

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.026315789473684185; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.16113631583445642; Valid 76.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:z8yC79LhREphKJKz/TkVAQ==

Austria chair

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.01315789473684211; Valid 76.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.11470786693528094

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:+Ze1ktapxZWxyzMU3K+g4g==

Number of creditors (high)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 10703.529411764712; Max. 700000.0; Min. 40.0; Valid 68.0; StDev 84837.78545342232;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:iTqjvG0G+x51UZF8MpVtSw==

Number of creditors (high, log)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 3.6888794898986816; StDev 1.1928785739394785; Mean 5.885840429979212; Valid 68.0; Max. 13.45883560180664

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:YLGMShv32dj9pDWiheQN/Q==

Number of creditors (low)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 7696.8823529411775; StDev 60592.42350020128; Min. 30.0; Max. 500000.0; Valid 68.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:r0r28HqQZim8NNaua2S7vA==

Number of creditors (low, log)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.1819907172403108; Min. 3.4011974334716797; Max. 13.122363090515137; Mean 5.7008673022775085; Valid 68.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:jY+FiNcQ6Ys2b7eVKJNDGg==

Debt (% GDP), mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 73.0; StDev 0.4523290142323447; Min. 3.0002498626708984; Max. 5.324080944061279; Mean 4.224106997659762;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:spmBprkc4fyE/LK90g6ItA==

Trade(% GDP), mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 28.22742825; Mean 6.88132269718902; Valid 77.0; StDev 5.891663694428772; Min. 0.21283241349999998;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2fhECxmkLy8aBqZuar8S+Q==

GDP per capita (log), mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 22.24564009883698; Max. 27.8865495978525; StDev 1.3954264911084804; Valid 77.0; Mean 25.284266515336096

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:6bJRbXxEBaOcgP9ksdUTWQ==

Veto players, mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.4195916297067; Max. 6.0; Valid 77.0; Mean 2.500105565244501; Min. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:tJd9OtN3Uz5mA5DCXaGbNA==

Polity, mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 10.0; Min. -8.0; Mean 2.075303046326886; Valid 76.0; StDev 6.4370767509832785

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:YYhJnbN97uHzt1vZF+v/kA==

CBI, mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.15462754666805267; StDev 0.017621444354830852; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.0020081499567279545; Valid 77.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:4YZvOiON4slNKylG2RwMCQ==

Federal funds rate, mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 2.7126181157186635; Valid 77.0; Mean 7.429170484282347; Max. 16.378333333333334; Min. 1.04375

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:GFa6I6sS0ktVdJ8GCF1gTQ==

Inflation, mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 77.0; Mean 45.01576541999335; StDev 29.888097261866395; Min. 13.6; Max. 125.2

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:8/5wBNj567Lh1ulFNgOlOQ==

Growth, mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 808.902501447212; Max. 12511.1901413447; StDev 2962.547739525719; Mean 5238.506231556251; Valid 77.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Z6jB3XZ2inmMWcbnVXBjUA==

Regional Debt (% Regional GDP), mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 77.0; Max. 160.25006103515625; StDev 29.416707582989563; Min. 38.07686233520508; Mean 88.02609456049932

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:dfAM8aO3XsU0631QdiScEg==

GDP (log), mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 77.0; Mean 16.92842044243414; Max. 18.878963581142102; Min. 14.590282961175935; StDev 1.2789048974591055;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:OK7+qPba3/+or8x+YQnDFA==

Population (log), mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -10.408085798297; Mean 1.7683250099878254; Max. 7.967078426787555; StDev 3.713796052075095; Valid 77.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:wefLANEWy56JlAS3pI25TQ==

Distance from US (mi)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1471.0; Mean 4388.563286323053; StDev 1882.6345856126502; Valid 77.0; Max. 8626.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:pDxhv6+rsmtYykWjDypPxA==

Haircut (%)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 76.0; Max. 80.4000015258789; Mean 26.10131578912076; StDev 19.861718678826; Min. -9.800000190734863

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:DgspP6iN+Yx8hlldHQknvw==

Number of creditors on BAC

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 11.161290322580644; Valid 62.0; Min. 0.0; Max. 22.0; StDev 3.407771005482388

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WlOSSqeSQOs1sFeSDHgjEQ==

% creditors on BAC

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.03688836848882378; StDev 0.020710349651905824; Min. 0.009285714477300644; Max. 0.1111111119389534; Valid 61.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:jH8MNf/ZaMzb+4NRVhqBgg==

Coerciveness index, mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 7.5; Min. 1.0; Valid 76.0; Mean 3.022791354279769; StDev 1.6656788509935248;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:rIOrvFxP6v9lwCmMy/ofJA==

Unemployment (%), mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 10.382442714732314; Min. 2.5; StDev 5.364052981074385; Valid 52.0; Max. 25.166666666666668

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:U1cnxN01CPOYIt3bu9+K+A==

Debt service (% exports),mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 60.0; StDev 11.664133071333636; Max. 70.45064779; Min. 3.346045823; Mean 22.444894332840793

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:VToQ87mmIWedqK8rRZUDzw==

Official reserves, months of imports, mean

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 10.992565930000001; Min. 0.29851536933333334; StDev 2.4426860747546577; Valid 74.0; Mean 3.553478946307697;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:BJLmfghc/3arS7lwTpcoLQ==

Debt restructured (mil USD)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 62100.0; Mean 9438.091323684212; StDev 14474.082421870802; Valid 76.0; Min. 100.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TzK98TnvrIaJDBDan4a5rQ==

Creditor_holdup

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.44519456218399445; Mean 0.2666666666666667; Min. 0.0; Valid 75.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:jL98UB0VUWDjwnOjqaVN0A==

% US bank claims held by LFIs

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.8878973722457886; Mean 0.6879315313904784; Valid 43.0; Min. 0.4472777247428894; StDev 0.1201359570335182

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:PsI+UYYt98tplqNOBqMxbQ==

Debt restructured (mil USD, log)

f6712080 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 4.605170249938965; Max. 11.036500930786133; Valid 76.0; StDev 1.4848858863435441; Mean 8.158082711069207;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:x/G1IfIxVD5qZvQki1gcOQ==

restructuring_episode

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; StDev 22.322903760495468; Mean 37.793577981651374; Max. 78.0; Valid 218.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:neGMyCoQ96OYl5rsMlUK/g==

ccode

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 8202.0; Max. 990.0; StDev 267.3032888184217; Mean 477.05364545230447; Min. 2.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:JgQXjF9W29ZkuwdhLUZeEQ==

Year

f6712078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:ckCavsXtjdqcRZG6kM62dg==

Country Name

f6712078 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:0sQAZ4GUsZR4T0Jv+pSKZg==

decade80

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.5366972477064219; StDev 0.49979913946310284; Valid 218.0; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:SqxzW9W4+pl9Yq3EH4vJ0A==

decade90

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.39449541284403655; StDev 0.48986687976091553; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 218.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:py1SCxx77ehildFisP2w0w==

decade00

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.06880733944954126; Valid 218.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.25370880209257224

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:8Z3/o7ZUCIgVPKn6F1p6sw==

americas

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.1736797170386652; Valid 8199.0; StDev 0.37885693742613913; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XJsiYKpc8V1+GJh65Acznw==

europe

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 0.24307842419807135; Valid 8199.0; StDev 0.42896823579994164; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:NdOCUi/glczHSl+nRhk+TA==

africa

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 8199.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.2542993047932783; StDev 0.43549316845268327; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:3aTy1ulZ64PdjWs2xWoBcw==

middleeast

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.2732037763708797; Min. 0.0; Valid 8199.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.08122941822174023

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XweTRRJ33lSMhbu16m8DEg==

asia

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Valid 8199.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.13135748261984084; StDev 0.3378115047434839;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Z+Y6kWXRUM/RndT7jJHpxg==

Veto Players

f6712078 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency	Text
-999.	NA	0

Summary Statistics: Mean 2.6113912231558953; Valid 5355.0; StDev 1.7159247279256171; Max. 18.0; Min. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:o6Kr308cK96Zs8lIhMOW9g==

Entered restructuring

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.17709473458577007; Mean 0.0324074074074088; Min. 0.0; Valid 5832.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2fgfvZW8FUlERCxiFpzs8Q==

Years in Default

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 37.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 7.938433493604723; Valid 5832.0; Mean 4.275548696844948;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:LwKdXmaJTXJ1jpMsP79UDg==

Debt (%GDP, log)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 7.646793365478516; Mean 3.8936648338267403; Valid 4826.0; StDev 0.7954652011871651; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:tuUHKxZO025sh8I89uiONw==

Regional Debt-to-GDP

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 198.337890625; Min. 32.63494110107422; StDev 22.74357677071996; Valid 5831.0; Mean 63.700283309603996;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:eQJCJNj/DpH7uGklezxKYw==

Left Leader

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.4569677947636043; Mean 0.2969821673525371; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 5832.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Z+8rTWt2aIBcha/vCd5ZJw==

Previous Restructure

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 0.030532088335557855; Valid 6747.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.17205890760138992

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:O5M+6g1iWJ9ifOnMcixFnw==

CBI

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.35568949600134414; Valid 5533.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.14856316645581308

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:dBOKByXQ3WpyWIoi99NIWA==

Democracy

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -10.0; Max. 10.0; StDev 7.209649777359664; Mean 2.1240444753301837; Valid 5756.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:wDJA8RRobbk7Gqms5fx1DQ==

Inflation (%)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 176.0; Min. 1.4; Mean 39.98737729849315; StDev 36.09356384284709; Valid 7233.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:6YDwa36XjHRC/yYao+XVIw==

Trade (% GDP)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 18.646026665249817; Mean 16.048558521744603; Max. 135.6036654; Valid 7185.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ANouRdbXQsyledwXBXOcsg==

Growth (%)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 156.211245141961; Valid 6986.0; Max. 195879.63737503; StDev 19493.276304296982; Mean 12161.026202718765;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:1To2102tMrbOsEYuzkhptw==

Population (log)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 6.727706031656746; Mean 3.4365085437447487; Valid 6991.0; Min. -64.0471065752366; Max. 149.972963487965;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:4zMfN1inuYvKokAJbZvE4Q==

GDP (log)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 7473.0; Mean 15.317443047395685; Max. 21.0545316866831; Min. 8.94076013488838; StDev 2.207854365113328;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zsH+fOJbRol2gL0ynj6S/A==

GDP per capita (log)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 6986.0; Mean 23.766956669695297; StDev 2.4206962561129313; Max. 30.5133874092613; Min. 16.8808977946724;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:cw4FYcUChqHihSTQT1G7VA==

Federal funds rate

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 16.378333333333334; Valid 8197.0; StDev 3.996329821577338; Min. 0.08; Mean 4.65532044243829

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:RoPPmWN5I1RXm4dy2pFwKA==

haircut (%)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 80.4000015258789; Min. -9.800000190734863; StDev 21.216513079468907; Mean 33.69862403330999; Valid 218.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:qf66wxZ0teCeDbcc2qaqYQ==

Enderlein et al. - Subindicator: explicit moratorium or default declaration

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.3353495303223529; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.12844036697247704; Valid 218.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:+fUtnzm/+bKT3xtOFJB14w==

Onset of public declaration

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 180.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.24020217017632817; Mean 0.06111111111111111

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:M7nDwODJn82HQGcC0dFs9A==

Enderlein et al. - Coerciveness Index (aggregate)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.98478548992105; Mean 3.5871559633027523; Max. 9.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 218.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:LyTY/1oVAvbj9BIwd1DkNQ==

Enderlein et al. - Subindicator: explicit threats to repudiate on debt

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.3802506255065386; Mean 0.17431192660550454; Valid 218.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:OXYv5SPRNQ2kASNeY8HgtA==

Unemployment (%)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 2.400000095; Valid 149.0; Mean 10.223489940583892; StDev 5.0806786394161065; Max. 27.89999962

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:9IV3Ny4vHKwWtnISSKm37A==

Chief Executive Years in Office [DPI]

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 7.519521796611726; Min. 1.0; Mean 5.6743119266055; Max. 40.0; Valid 218.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zQ9FUoXK9ArC1heheM2VHw==

Bond Exchange

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.34172259578787917; Mean 0.13425925925925927; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 216.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:cqlUvN/1pCVhECS7Iho7+A==

US chair

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 216.0; StDev 0.4985551907346282; Mean 0.5509259259259259;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:E4V3FovQ9eZwfx0WGoGbuQ==

Number banks (low)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 13124.200000000023; StDev 79185.48573493952; Max. 500000.0; Valid 195.0; Min. 30.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:vDGQnrGDp5Hep0gy9PKehQ==

Number banks (high)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 110867.38756439771; Valid 195.0; Mean 18324.835897435896; Max. 700000.0; Min. 40.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:aKP66tmmvIQ4UkU7GdFL+w==

Number of creditors on BAC

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 178.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 10.612359550561798; Max. 22.0; StDev 3.5016160990350227

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:FIgAA4DFHZUp4K28bNZ8FA==

UK chair

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.34663386845443994; Valid 216.0; Mean 0.13888888888888878; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:FMJQrBKCRJolpNTZOLsFpQ==

Germany chair

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.08796296296296285; Valid 216.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.28389896420679567; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Z5jZTWW02yubNxM5ByKa0A==

France chair

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 0.24677070227324513; Valid 216.0; Mean 0.06481481481481476; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:bMNOCmalsblJ3mq7OPT3NQ==

Canada chair

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.2383820715963574; Min. 0.0; Valid 216.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.06018518518518523

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:KSino/LYrMZgJ1nZcmLHTA==

Austria chair

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.15072320633129876; Min. 0.0; Valid 216.0; Mean 0.0231481481481481

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:9wF7Uy6YR07Z+/NYxUrmvg==

$\%$ Creditors represented on BAC

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.1111111119389534; Mean 0.03772723573749348; StDev 0.022761179543478616; Valid 177.0; Min. 0.009285714477300644

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zh8S6fhMa8pbKUJ5/4k5pw==

Number of creditors (high, log)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 195.0; Min. 3.6888794898986816; StDev 1.4484519018517812; Mean 5.888425533588116; Max. 13.45883560180664;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WhQhAK1cRR4TDbbBFAze+A==

Number of creditors (low, log)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 195.0; Mean 5.65963834860386; Max. 13.122363090515137; StDev 1.436991166405205; Min. 3.4011974334716797

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:jpkb1cCF2Dj59bDligbTTQ==

Debt service (% expoorts)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 11.033121879153827; Max. 299.3091734; Min. 0.0; StDev 14.374704316988105; Valid 3803.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:uUK/e+KoMC4MyswubBgj7A==

Reserves (months imports)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 79.23721827; StDev 4.372634119001827; Valid 5391.0; Mean 4.222963416387311; Min. 0.002214624

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:gRAmfk8gGP94oWT199851g==

IMF program (5 months)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.3773060417925722; Min. 0.0; Valid 5504.0; Mean 0.171875; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:BUaVFqSHmMP9misqHTKckA==

Distance from US (mi)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 7655.0; Mean 5561.617112998135; Max. 10187.0; StDev 2224.988902499873; Min. 456.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:dF6CGWW9QaRqS5C/rCbDmQ==

Country code id

f6712078 Location:

Value	Label	Frequency
120.	MCO	0
134.	MUS	30
150.	PER	29
178.	SWE	0
72.	GIB	0
144.	NOR	0
146.	NZL	0
159.	PYF	0
88.	IDN	0
104.	KIR	0
110.	LBR	0
187.	TKM	23
39.	CIV	0
4.	ALB	30
160.	QAT	15
14.	AZE	15
1.	ABW	0
170.	SLV	30
62.	ETH	0
51.	DEU	0
66.	FRO	0
16.	BEL	0
45.	CPV	0
80.	GTM	0
46.	CRI	30
58.	EGY	30
123.	MDV	0
111.	LBY	11
98.	JOR	30
198.	URY	30
6.	ANT	0
43.	COL	30
63.	FIN	0
67.	FSM	0
131.	MNG	0
2.	AFG	0
102.	KGZ	0
196.	UGA	0
31.	BTN	0
183.	TCD	0
108.	LAO	0
177.	SVN	0
11.	ATG	0
105.	KNA	0
191.	TUN	30
181.	SYR	30
200.	UZB	23
194.	TWN	0
76.	GNQ	0
135.	MWI	0
125.	MHL	0
141.	NGA	21
184.	TGO	0
174.	STP	0
18.	BFA	0
97.	JAM	0
182.	TCA	0
133.	MRT	0
89.	IMY	0
12.	AUS	0
197.	UKR	23
26.	BMU	0
179.	SWZ	30
206.	WSM	0
173.	SRB	0
192.	TUR	30
59.	ERI	0
17.	BEN	0
203.	VIR	0
54.	DNK	0
37.	CHL	30
57.	ECU	30
83.	HKG	30
195.	TZA	0
96.	ITA	0
48.	CYM	0
145.	NPL	0
61.	EST	0
13.	AUT	0
71.	GHA	0
30.	BRN	0
24.	BLR	20
162.	RUS	21
202.	VEN	30
15.	BDI	0
161.	ROU	30
153.	PNG	30
106.	KOR	0
35.	CHE	0
163.	RWA	0
34.	CAN	0
167.	SGP	30
70.	GEO	30
171.	SMR	0
185.	THA	30
116.	LTU	20
103.	KHM	0
60.	ESP	0
126.	MKD	0
193.	TUV	0
124.	MEX	30
64.	FJI	0
52.	DJI	0
25.	BLZ	0
21.	BHR	30
176.	SVK	26
128.	MLT	0
56.	DZA	30
158.	PSE	0
204.	VNM	0
156.	PRT	0
147.	OMN	30
33.	CAF	0
122.	MDG	0
175.	SUR	0
119.	MAR	30
115.	LSO	0
166.	SEN	0
84.	HND	0
42.	COG	0
121.	MDA	0
95.	ISR	0
38.	CHN	30
20.	BGR	30
169.	SLE	0
47.	CUB	0
87.	HUN	30
129.	MMR	0
210.	ZWE	0
79.	GRL	0
41.	COD	0
152.	PLW	0
19.	BGD	0
117.	LUX	0
127.	MLI	0
130.	MNE	0
101.	KEN	0
55.	DOM	30
190.	TTO	0
40.	CMR	0
8.	ARG	30
137.	MYT	0
118.	LVA	30
74.	GMB	0
36.	CHI	0
186.	TJK	0
50.	CZE	0
77.	GRC	0
86.	HTI	0
151.	PHL	30
154.	POL	19
201.	VCT	0
9.	ARM	15
75.	GNB	0
109.	LBN	18
132.	MOZ	0
180.	SYC	0
68.	GAB	0
205.	VUT	0
10.	ASM	0
100.	KAZ	20
112.	LCA	0
65.	FRA	0
27.	BOL	0
28.	BRA	30
91.	IRL	0
149.	PAN	30
142.	NIC	0
99.	JPN	0
136.	MYS	30
81.	GUM	0
172.	SOM	0
139.	NCL	0
188.	TLS	0
189.	TON	0
82.	GUY	0
85.	HRV	0
209.	ZMB	0
29.	BRB	0
69.	GBR	0
49.	CYP	0
107.	KWT	15
114.	LKA	0
143.	NLD	0
164.	SAU	30
53.	DMA	0
155.	PRI	0
199.	USA	0
92.	IRN	0
23.	BIH	0
94.	ISL	0
168.	SLB	0
148.	PAK	30
93.	IRQ	0
32.	BWA	30
44.	COM	0
157.	PRY	0
7.	ARE	30
207.	YEM	0
90.	IND	30
78.	GRD	0
113.	LIE	0
5.	AND	0
3.	AGO	0
22.	BHS	0
165.	SDN	0
208.	ZAF	30
138.	NAM	30
73.	GIN	0
140.	NER	0

Summary Statistics: Min. 4.0; StDev 62.79406202707718; Valid 1624.0; Mean 113.0357142857142; Max. 208.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:n5inwaa/VSh66S3o8t7WHg==

In default or debt renegotiation

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1624.0; StDev 0.33564646665328196; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.1293103448275855;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2uKDO/YSAITcBWgC0PSV/Q==

Enderlein et al. - Subindicator: explicit moratorium or default declaration

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.017241379310344553; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Valid 1624.0; StDev 0.13020965458143532

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WjbTNSTK0+Uj3aoIo3iGSA==

Banking crisis dummy, onset (Laeven/Valencia)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.1868689349653418; Min. 0.0; Valid 1519.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.0362080315997368

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:r4CqW26VLg8wyCMVpdKC/Q==

Sum of exports + imports (as % of GDP)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 87.58309133541923; StDev 62.57264751790563; Min. 11.545672416687012; Valid 1560.0; Max. 460.47113037109375

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:cOdSBtS06QX40kg2g9ih6A==

Change in exports as capacity to import (WDI), const LCU

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.06815508438345458; Min. -0.7147054672241211; Valid 1329.0; Max. 1.1222983598709106; StDev 0.15931190766280584

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:t4LDoVJ0NO9hC7MoHBaFXA==

General government final consumption expenditure (annual % growth)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1336.0; Min. -44.847137451171875; StDev 7.901765510144068; Mean 3.8490404625239156; Max. 83.22173309326172

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:lVhNuLh5bLGPkTcTNKsIwQ==

Investment to GDP in % (IMF data)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.7240800261497498; StDev 0.0751848609579129; Valid 1484.0; Mean 0.23991927225142717; Min. 0.023879999294877052

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:DeO95F2uJfnWEzNmQNZSgg==

Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita (in percent)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 5.816535340304593; Max. 33.030479431152344; Valid 1608.0; Min. -45.325111389160156; Mean 2.0355158637661326;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:rpnZ8uwMGcDfQ9ssHpb7Yw==

Annual growth rate of population in percent (World Development Indicators)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.8944489688007597; Max. 20.42815589904785; Valid 1622.0; Mean 1.7490513253691786; Min. -2.624650239944458

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:uKsPZGa0g6FrzRJdDu3dzA==

Log of total population in million (World Development Indicators)

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 1.6514585204384615; Max. 7.193971157073975; Min. -1.027342438697815; Mean 2.4792062346678714; Valid 1624.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:UuGS+yFsi2IN77EHPNrwBw==

Annual index value of the civil liberties index published by Freedom House

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1.0; StDev 1.618302471678381; Valid 1539.0; Max. 7.0; Mean 3.99090318388565

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:h6QDPKPMz+BG7sKzLyR5RQ==

Share of population that attained secondary schooling in percent (Barro and Lee,

f6712078 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1444.0; Mean 46.93155674855135; Max. 93.4985122680664; StDev 20.18757440445684; Min. 9.59999942779541;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:QKZXnPhUhhCP4gl1mngZGA==

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

II_2022.do

Notes:

application/x-stata-syntax

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

II_2022_README.rtf

Notes:

text/rtf