Replication Data for "The future of forests: emissions from tropical deforestation with and without a carbon price, 2016-2050" (doi:10.7910/DVN/CWCWIX)

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Replication Data for "The future of forests: emissions from tropical deforestation with and without a carbon price, 2016-2050"

doi:10.7910/DVN/CWCWIX

Harvard Dataverse

2015-08-20

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Busch, Jonah; Engelmann, Jens, 2015, "Replication Data for "The future of forests: emissions from tropical deforestation with and without a carbon price, 2016-2050"", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CWCWIX, Harvard Dataverse, V3

Replication Data for "The future of forests: emissions from tropical deforestation with and without a carbon price, 2016-2050"

doi:10.7910/DVN/CWCWIX

Busch, Jonah (CGD)

Engelmann, Jens (CGD)

Harvard Dataverse

Busch, Jonah

Busch, Jonah

2015-07-28

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CWCWIX

Earth and Environmental Sciences, Social Sciences

We project the future of tropical deforestation from 2016-2050 with and without carbon pricing policies, based on 18 million observations of historical forest loss spanning 101 tropical countries. Our spatial projections of future deforestation incorporate topography, accessibility, protected status, potential agricultural revenue, and a robust observed inverted-U-shaped trajectory of forest cover loss with respect to remaining forest cover. We project that in the absence of new forest conservation policies, 289 million hectares of tropical forest will be cleared from 2016-2050—an area about the size of India and one-seventh of Earth’s tropical forest area in the year 2000. We project that this tropical deforestation will release 169 GtCO2 to the atmosphere from 2016-2050—one-sixth of the remaining carbon that can be emitted if the rise in Earth’s temperature is to be likely held below 2 °C. We estimate that a universally applied carbon price of $20/tCO2 from 2016-2050 would avoid 41 GtCO2 of emissions from tropical deforestation while a carbon price of $50/tCO2 would avoid 77 GtCO2. These prices correspond to average costs to land users of $9/tCO2 and $21/tCO2 respectively. By comparison if all tropical countries implemented anti-deforestation policies as effective as those in the Brazilian Amazon post-2004 then 60 GtCO2 of emissions would be avoided. Our analysis corroborates the conclusions of previous studies that reducing tropical deforestation is a sizable and low-cost option for mitigating climate change. In contrast to previous studies, we project that the amount of emissions that can be avoided at low-cost by reducing tropical deforestation will increase rather than decrease in future decades. Encouragingly, 89% of potential low-cost emission reductions are located in the 47 tropical countries that have already signaled their intention to reduce emissions from deforestation in exchange for performance-based finance (REDD+).

<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>

Busch, J. and Engelmann, J. (2015). "The future of forests: emissions from tropical deforestation with and without a carbon price, 2016-2050." Working Paper. Center for Global Development, Washington, DC.

Busch, J. and Engelmann, J. (2015). "The future of forests: emissions from tropical deforestation with and without a carbon price, 2016-2050." Working Paper. Center for Global Development, Washington, DC.

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africa_full_BACCINI_avg13.rds

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Africa dataset used in simulation models

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historical_defor_emiss_rates.rar

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Csv files outlining historical deforestation and emissions rates

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panel_data.rar

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Panel data sets for all three continents

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replication_code_fof.rar

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Replication code to run simulation models

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replication_code_results.rar

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Replication code to create results for working paper

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replication_code_sensitivity.rar

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Replication code to run sensitivity analysis models

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sensitivity_dt.rar

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Simulation data files

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se_asia_full_BACCINI_avg13.rds

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Asia dataset used in simulation models

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simulation_model_coefficients.rar

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Simulation model coefficients

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so_america_full_BACCINI_avg13.rds

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Latin America data used in simulation models

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storage_dt.rar

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Date files in storage file (referenced in code files)

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