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Part 1: Document Description
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Citation |
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Title: |
Bilateral Trade in the Shadow of Armed Conflict |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/DHSDFA |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Date of Distribution: |
2008-04-18 |
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Version: |
1 |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Andrew G. Long, 2008, "Bilateral Trade in the Shadow of Armed Conflict", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/DHSDFA, Harvard Dataverse, V1 |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Bilateral Trade in the Shadow of Armed Conflict |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/DHSDFA |
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Authoring Entity: |
Andrew G. Long (Kansas State University) |
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Date of Production: |
2008-04-18 |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Distributor: |
ISQ |
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Access Authority: |
Andrew G. Long |
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Date of Deposit: |
2008-04-18 |
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Holdings Information: |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/DHSDFA |
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Study Scope |
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Keywords: |
Social Sciences |
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Abstract: |
Does the shadow of war decrease trade? I examine the influence of conflict on bilateral trade and argue that trading firms’ expectations of armed conflict, both within and between nation-states, should decrease trade along with armed political violence. By assuming that firms care about future profits and assess the likelihood of a domestic or interstate conflict in the future that could disrupt trade, I argue that increasing the expectation of a domestic or interstate conflict raises the transportation, transaction, and production costs of trade. Empirically, contemporaneous trade levels should be negatively related to trading firms’ beliefs about the likelihood of domestic and interstate conflicts in the future. Statistical tests, using bilateral trade data from 1984 to 1997, show that expectations of domestic or interstate conflict, in addition to violent armed conflicts, are negatively correlated with bilateral trade levels. Theoretically and empirically, this research advances our understanding of the trade-conflict relationship by demonstrating how trading firms’ expectations about future conflict reduce bilateral trade levels. |
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Methodology and Processing |
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Sources Statement |
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Data Access |
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Notes: |
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a> |
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Other Study Description Materials |
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Related Publications |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Long, A. G. (2008), Bilateral Trade in the Shadow of Armed Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 52: 81–101. |
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Identification Number: |
10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00492.x |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Long, A. G. (2008), Bilateral Trade in the Shadow of Armed Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 52: 81–101. |
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Label: |
Long_ISQ_2008 replication data.out |
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Text: |
Stata File for "Bilateral Trade in the Shadow of Armed Conflict" |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
Long_ISQ_2008 replication STATA command file.do |
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Text: |
Stata Do-File for "Bilateral Trade in the Shadow of Armed Conflict" |
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Notes: |
text/x-stata-syntax; charset=US-ASCII |