Replication data for: When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference (doi:10.7910/DVN/EK886K)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
Entire Codebook

Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication data for: When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/EK886K

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2007-11-28

Version:

4

Bibliographic Citation:

King, Gary; Zeng, Langche, 2007, "Replication data for: When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EK886K, Harvard Dataverse, V4, UNF:3:DaYlT6QSX9r0D50ye+tXpA== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication data for: When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/EK886K

Authoring Entity:

King, Gary (Harvard University)

Zeng, Langche (UC San Diego)

Date of Production:

2006

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Deposit:

2006

Date of Distribution:

2007

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EK886K

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences

Topic Classification:

ISQ 2006, Volume 50

Abstract:

Inferences about counterfactuals are essential for prediction, answering "what if" questions, and estimating causal effects. However, when the counterfactuals posed are too far from the data at hand, conclusions drawn from well-specified statistical analyses become based on speculation and convenient but indefensible model assumptions rather than empirical evidence. Unfortunately, standard statistical approaches assume the veracity of the model rather than revealing the degree of model-dependence, and so this problem can be hard to detect. We develop easy-to-apply methods to evaluate counterfactuals that do not require sensitivity testing over specified classes of models. If an analysis fails the tests we offer, then we know that substantive results are sensitive to at least some modeling choices that are not based on empirical evidence. We use these methods to evaluate the extensive scholarly literatures on the effe cts of changes in the degree of democracy in a country (on any dependent variable) and separate analyses of the effects of UN peacebuilding efforts. We find evidence that many scholars are inadvertently drawing conclusions based more on modeling hypotheses than on their data. For some research questions, history contains insufficient information to be our guide. <br /><br /> See also: <a href="http://gking.harvard.edu/category/research-interests/applications/international-conflict" target="_blank">International Conflict</a>, <a href="http://gking.harvard.edu/category/research-interests/methods/causal-inference" target="_blank">Causal Inference</a>

Notes:

Subject: STANDARD DEPOSIT TERMS 1.0 Type: DATAPASS:TERMS:STANDARD:1.0 Notes: This study was deposited under the of the Data-PASS standard deposit terms. A copy of the usage agreement is included in the file section of this study.;

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

This dataset is made available without information on how it can be used. You should communicate with the Contact(s) specified before use.

Other Study Description Materials

Related Publications

Citation

Title:

King, Gary, and Langche Zeng. 2007. When Can History Be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference. International Studies Quarterly: 183-210: <a href="http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/counterf-abs.shtml" target="_blank">Link to article</a>

Bibliographic Citation:

King, Gary, and Langche Zeng. 2007. When Can History Be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference. International Studies Quarterly: 183-210: <a href="http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/counterf-abs.shtml" target="_blank">Link to article</a>

File Description--f102289

File: peace.tab

  • Number of cases: 124

  • No. of variables per record: 196

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:3:3eVmKKyzBPKFpkLYV15H0Q==

File used in conjuction with 'replication files' to create table 2

File Description--f102302

File: wpx.tab

  • Number of cases: 122

  • No. of variables per record: 14

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:3:iAeEKuT/4cqHVgcTmLE0gQ==

File of useful variables created using the 'replication' files

Variable Description

List of Variables:
  • dataset - Small or large Data-set?
  • ccode - Three-letter war abbreviation
  • cnumb - Number code of the war
  • cluster - Country abbreviation for clustering
  • clust2 - Clustering all x-USSR, and x-Yugo states together
  • cname - Country in war
  • yrbeg - First Year of the War
  • yrend - Last Year of the War
  • decade - Decade Dummy
  • geo - Geographical Area/Continent
  • royal - Monarchies
  • euro - Europe
  • lac - Latin America & Carribean
  • mideast - Middle East
  • asia - Asia
  • africa - Sub-Saharan Africa
  • warend2 - No war-recurrence 2 years after end of war?
  • warend5 - No war-recurrence 5 years after end of war?
  • warend10 - No war-recurrence 10 years after end of war?
  • noviol2 - No residual violence 2 years after end of war?
  • noviol5 - No residual violence 5 years after end of war?
  • noviol10 - No residual violence 10 years after end of war?
  • gurr2 - Polity98 Score 2 years after war
  • gurr5 - Polity98 Score 5 years after war
  • gurr10 - Polity98 Score 10 years after war
  • pol982
  • pol985
  • pol9810
  • polity2 - intermediate coding variable for PBS2
  • polity5 - intermediate coding variable for PBS5
  • polity10 - intermediate coding variable for PBS10
  • pbs2ll - VERY LENIENT PB 2 yrs after war
  • pbs2l - LENIENT PB 2 yrs after war
  • pbs5l - LENIENT PB 5 yrs after war
  • pbs10l - LENIENT PB 10 yrs after war
  • bollen80 - Bollen index
  • gpol2 - Political rights index 2 years after war
  • gciv2 - Civil rights index 2 years after war
  • gpol5 - Political rights index 5 years after war
  • gciv5 - Civil rights index 5 years after war
  • gpol10 - Political rights index 10 years after war
  • gciv10 - Civil rights index 10 years after war
  • gurrlag5 - 5-year polity average before the war
  • gurrlagx - 10-year polity average before the war
  • outcome - Outcome of the War
  • outcome2 - Outcome of the War
  • treaty - Was there a peace treaty?
  • wardur - Duration of the War
  • wartype - Was it an identity-based war?
  • unintrvn - Was there a UN peace operation?
  • uncint - Type of UN peace operation
  • un2int - UN Presence
  • un2cint - Type of UN Presence
  • untype - Type of UN ops -- break PKO & PBO
  • nouncint - Type of non-UN peace operation, if any
  • peaceop - Strongest type of either UN or non-UN operation
  • interven - Was there a partial intervention?
  • major - Was there a major power involved?
  • pw10 - Was there a war in previous 10 years?
  • elf - Ethnolinguistic fractionalization index
  • factmf - Were there many factions?
  • factnum - Number of factions
  • battle - Number of battle deaths
  • dead - Total number of deaths
  • ridp - Refugees and IDPs
  • lifes - Life expectancy pre-war
  • lifee - Life expectancy post-war
  • garm - Size of the government army
  • gdp60 - GDP per capita in 1960
  • gdp85 - GDP per capita in 1985
  • gdpcap - GDP per capita--start of war
  • rgdpcaps - Real pre-war GDP per capita
  • rgdpcape - Real post-war GDP per capita
  • rgdpch - Real GDP per capita--Chain index
  • rgdpch2
  • aid91 - Net aid in US
  • en1 - Rummel's energy consumption index
  • en2st - WB pre-war energy index
  • en2end - WB post-war energy index
  • area - Area in square kilometers
  • popst - Pre-war population
  • popen5 - Population 5 years after end of the war
  • popen10
  • popgro
  • infst - Infant mortality per 1,000 births-pre-war
  • border - Number of land borders
  • illit - Percent illiterate--people above 15
  • illitend - Percent illiterate--postwar
  • water - Percent people with access to safe water
  • gini1 - Gini index--first
  • transf85 - Net transfers to BOP in 1985
  • sxp
  • nettrans - Current Net Transfers 1980
  • electric - Consumption of electricity per capita
  • en9903s - ICPSR energy consumption --start of war; 1985 if start after 1985
  • eh - Vanhanen's ethnic heterogeneity index
  • coldwar - Was it a Cold-War conflict?
  • pbs2s3 - STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<3
  • pbs2s6 - VERY STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<6
  • pbs2s9 - EXTREMELY STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<12
  • pbs5s3 - STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<3
  • pbs5s6 - VERY STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<6
  • pbs5s9 - EXTREMELY STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<12
  • outcome3
  • negout - Only non-military outcomes
  • milout - Only military outcomes
  • logdead - Natural Log of DEAD
  • trnsfcap - Net Transfers per Capita
  • encaps - energy consumption per capita, start of war -ICPSR)
  • cost - Human cost of the war
  • costcap - Per capita human cost of the war
  • intense - Monthly human cost per capita
  • logcost - Natural log of human cost
  • faction - Were there many factions?
  • factn1 - Two factions
  • factn2 - Three or more factions
  • un2cint1 - un2cint==None
  • un2cint2 - un2cint==Mediation
  • un2cint3 - un2cint==Observer
  • un2cint4 - un2cint==PKO
  • un2cint5 - un2cint==Enforcement
  • untype1 - untype==None
  • untype2 - untype==Observer
  • untype3 - untype==TradPKO
  • untype4 - untype==MultiPKO
  • untype5 - untype==Enforcement+
  • strongUN - Strong UN Peace Operations
  • UNops - UN operation types
  • UNop1 - No UN operations
  • UNop2 - Mediation or Observer
  • UNop3 - Trad & Multidm PKOs
  • UNop4 - Enforcement & Transitional Authority
  • treatUN - Treaty-UNops interaction
  • outUN - Outcome-UNops interaction
  • factnum2 - Square of factnum
  • logpop - Log of population size
  • elfpop - ELF-Population interaction
  • elfpop2 - Square of ELF-Population interaction
  • untreaty - UN operation type with treaty
  • unout - UN operation type with outcome type
  • exp - Primary commodity exports % GDP, with imputation
  • energy - Energy consumption w/ imputations
  • ielec - Electricity consumption pc w/imputations
  • ielf - ELF with imputations
  • ielf2 - ELF squared
  • ielfpol - Interaction between ELF and Gurr indices
  • gini - Income inequality w/ imputations
  • ielfgini - Interaction between ELF and Gini indices
  • gdp - Real GDP per capita w/ 4 imputations
  • PKO - Peacekeeping ops
  • enforce - enforcement ops
  • truce - War ends in informal truce
  • vrebel - War ends in rebel victory
  • vgov - War ends in govt victory
  • UNopindx
  • RC2 - Hostility index -- H
  • IC2 - International capacities index
  • LC2 - Local capacities index
  • develop
  • devel - imputed electric
  • PredUN - Pr(un2int)
  • ResUN
  • Pred2UN - Pr(un2int)
  • Res2UN
  • L1
  • Phat1 - Low Hostility
  • L2
  • Phat2 - High Hostility
  • L3
  • Phat3 - No UN/Treaty
  • L4
  • Phat4 - PKO & Treaty
  • L5
  • Phat5 - Low LC
  • L6
  • Phat6 - High LC
  • L7
  • Phat7 - Non-Ethnic War
  • L8
  • Phat8 - Ethnic War
  • L10
  • Phat10 - No PKO/Treaty
  • L11
  • Phat11 - PKO & Treaty
  • L12
  • Phat12 - NO PKO/Treaty
  • L13
  • Phat13 - PKO & Treaty
  • L14
  • Phat14 - No PK0/Treaty
  • L15
  • Phat15 - PK0 & Treaty
  • L16
  • Phat16 - No PK0/Treaty
  • L17
  • Phat17 - PK0 & Treaty
  • y
  • x1
  • x2
  • x3
  • x4
  • x5
  • x6
  • x7
  • x8
  • x9
  • x10
  • un1
  • un
  • cluster - Country abbreviation for clustering

Variables

Small or large Data-set?

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:2HCPgvXkbsmT/eo6+vqZJA==

Three-letter war abbreviation

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:3:9z9KNLa2uEFAwWRp2KJ3xA==

Number code of the war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:4em2/Yqo35G3fPw5UcxmKA==

Country abbreviation for clustering

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:3:WFX+3TMa7sx79Qv+WPxEfQ==

Clustering all x-USSR, and x-Yugo states together

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:3:XHXiEmFi9HYA8WMAiwEqnw==

Country in war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:3:j6FcSZPVezlaypoq8OnB1Q==

First Year of the War

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:HFWrmtlCA2cEfp7F5wVFlQ==

Last Year of the War

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Q4/NZkXtAxeTIwp+sbT2uQ==

Decade Dummy

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ITy5iYyWqeOUOCF0gZ9Imw==

Geographical Area/Continent

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Ll2jgOrOLL9K4U+O6NXErQ==

Monarchies

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:gOoyiEmEMUiUzfiXCMyUgw==

Europe

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Voz0uuiEI1mJW1Basx6QjA==

Latin America & Carribean

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:knc3/4rvkG6tLZtoB18ciA==

Middle East

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ZSpwTZPE92Fn83eUDhBVug==

Asia

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:0ESZGHH2oTm9bQ7SZeVIlg==

Sub-Saharan Africa

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:WpXMNBdi96teQclvrErdpQ==

No war-recurrence 2 years after end of war?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

1.

Yes

95

0.

No

29

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:1XAbEf9wd5VI8LTIUI6vog==

No war-recurrence 5 years after end of war?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

1.

Yes

85

0.

No

28

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:dpRXPH+hQh9r49B7PlHtcg==

No war-recurrence 10 years after end of war?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

1.

Yes

52

0.

No

28

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:JBZ6JZGATQR5N3E/9k+O2g==

No residual violence 2 years after end of war?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

No

65

1.

Yes

59

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:5RqDMc88eEPBKl0xHc5OdQ==

No residual violence 5 years after end of war?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

No

56

1.

Yes

57

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:fNcqyorIfWYpKgaL5y9LTg==

No residual violence 10 years after end of war?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

No

45

1.

Yes

37

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:S2PBegpSUZUwZwvi4ypkKg==

Polity98 Score 2 years after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ih78Sc+BnNStcU+4oFwoxQ==

Polity98 Score 5 years after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:mVuQGxOR1WnTtBcGOkFCfQ==

Polity98 Score 10 years after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:7iCAMbrsp25v9B450diveA==

pol982

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:efdTZgpMlbWQTkVfBS4Zwg==

pol985

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:4s465Z5tAp6B8d/CwWWoFw==

pol9810

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:kTrQ3brly6bOezPwzPsmEA==

intermediate coding variable for PBS2

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Ua0wUS1TySaojP+WzciMlw==

intermediate coding variable for PBS5

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:LKpXBLrADFP346jwRLDHyg==

intermediate coding variable for PBS10

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:P1zkEv5ARMfHD+l7NzYTxQ==

VERY LENIENT PB 2 yrs after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:o2joWLI/OWKORDYsd5Poqg==

LENIENT PB 2 yrs after war

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

Failure

71

1.

Success

53

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:s828MdEsWrKyUgaAUBZ9iw==

LENIENT PB 5 yrs after war

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

Failure

67

1.

Success

52

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:6F52EhR0ENTQl+Ln1lYYNQ==

LENIENT PB 10 yrs after war

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

1.

Success

36

0.

Failure

42

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:3MR3uphDiaMFq3Yk9zkv2g==

Bollen index

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ymmssqGs5PDZjygoczFB8A==

Political rights index 2 years after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:h9JOlBHflIOPsY53FD9GoQ==

Civil rights index 2 years after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:CKLxm8Y4sh71/hGQaMDj1A==

Political rights index 5 years after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:hj38lCasRwu3PeSI4lk7bA==

Civil rights index 5 years after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:oB+2tGCIf2N7sHBwzq4mrw==

Political rights index 10 years after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:lbMzvhAZEQqOEyBj479CDg==

Civil rights index 10 years after war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:/qrnFkwE05wk2VxVzDqBNA==

5-year polity average before the war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:7E6ZKRO2rqPBpbcMiy4mFg==

10-year polity average before the war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ugriP21oQoEnWy0zPylSSw==

Outcome of the War

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

War

10

1.

Victory

65

3.

Truce

16

2.

Settlement

33

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:beKfBIdpKpeAXrddSZ8wxg==

Outcome of the War

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

3.

Truce

15

0.

War

10

1.

Victory-Govt

38

4.

Settlement

34

2.

Victory-Rebels

27

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:/XK1l6y/Ke7+x2lfs2OVqQ==

Was there a peace treaty?

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:YHWhDbTx1Eoz8h4y+Wia3g==

Duration of the War

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:PpSyRCVnf+1SExiPAcWwHw==

Was it an identity-based war?

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:0tjtUNLMGHAE0P8vHB6EOw==

Was there a UN peace operation?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

No

88

1.

Yes

36

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:UiVOo9eecjSmq9uNAimURw==

Type of UN peace operation

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

1.

Mediation

0

4.

Enforcement

4

2.

Observer

17

0.

None

88

3.

PKO

15

5.

Trans. Authority

0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:1Z4ohjWIRJmWt71+u7/xuA==

UN Presence

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:eNfW8aU2WaQqrXGrZ8/OMw==

Type of UN Presence

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

2.

Observer

17

3.

PKO

15

0.

None

79

1.

Mediation

9

4.

Enforcement

4

5.

Trans. Authority

0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Md1YEy8m92rbKgDDYwUpsw==

Type of UN ops -- break PKO & PBO

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

5.

Enforcement+

4

2.

Observer

17

0.

None

88

1.

Mediation

0

4.

MultiPKO

7

3.

TradPKO

8

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:iNq5mWmlgSpueeLHY0VvpA==

Type of non-UN peace operation, if any

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:guwrwA+EPtmdmJMTNg/a7A==

Strongest type of either UN or non-UN operation

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:GBOFeTWfuT8SmozqaphjgQ==

Was there a partial intervention?

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:HBjLKdgAOCpheTudECK9zw==

Was there a major power involved?

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:HLo3o1YjiAO4q5wOLtIEUw==

Was there a war in previous 10 years?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

1.

Yes

59

0.

No

65

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:xtO635xg0ocMuXfsoJoUrw==

Ethnolinguistic fractionalization index

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:GhyI6U+WLHpd82EqCr0DYw==

Were there many factions?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

Few

49

1.

Many

75

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Gkq1LkrSdXVJD6wmSu1ajQ==

Number of factions

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:NwJHrqVRKGTrLRsz8FO/bA==

Number of battle deaths

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:MB9yN9pNIP5iIaqZkLiPnQ==

Total number of deaths

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:6ih/IwDAKMLyTE9DDgZ7Og==

Refugees and IDPs

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:mYe5hryLCnzNcItTirPXmA==

Life expectancy pre-war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ki4d48eX/pL3s6+PW9M8/A==

Life expectancy post-war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:s61LZM+Sml70bhcD2lbseQ==

Size of the government army

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:+DjtCpuVf33CzfxLfvH3aw==

GDP per capita in 1960

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:8nz8uqlioQE9KPnMnh4RCA==

GDP per capita in 1985

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Zj3qZdgZsa6udVOtBNuiNw==

GDP per capita--start of war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:WIZrELwYa6/XSECUzcNUuA==

Real pre-war GDP per capita

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:r1o55fVIc0bG9WiN7VhLiA==

Real post-war GDP per capita

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:5f0D4U82inM1BjCeLNmLdA==

Real GDP per capita--Chain index

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ylUz8sSDG2vAiV/D4EdZAQ==

rgdpch2

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:IYEAr0GTYzilXYAikMPxJQ==

Net aid in US

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Y4NChQEPCs77GTSmAlIAnw==

Rummel's energy consumption index

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:yFz1Q32/xEARHYucgwXYLQ==

WB pre-war energy index

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:vliqE4wchOkSJ/paVSL7Ow==

WB post-war energy index

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:d/ExSD9PYB+3DIjNHRgS9Q==

Area in square kilometers

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ztXRZrNUPW+tA8sYgkcnbw==

Pre-war population

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:aNQyWDS0R4r91pUw+Q25OQ==

Population 5 years after end of the war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:9P/5dHu0T3xNcQmsz3hcxw==

popen10

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:by86YWYKVrne4YYZ2g6qKA==

popgro

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:qjpTTI/MupAJptbaX5j2HA==

Infant mortality per 1,000 births-pre-war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:UtFeC6D74iVsCBNLpQ2IAw==

Number of land borders

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:6kpBUy3Ribi83MCNtQEWQw==

Percent illiterate--people above 15

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:5zpLfx7E6S+t4FTIX0pTEg==

Percent illiterate--postwar

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:jlhmGQoOm19fVbGLhmvGlw==

Percent people with access to safe water

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:EH5qOtyP9DuhKF0ysddYGg==

Gini index--first

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:gLmFAGzMUaY/ZAMVLeyhJQ==

Net transfers to BOP in 1985

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:/qu2eKvR9KLqwJCrW+ZwOQ==

sxp

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:LSZ9YV0nJRuGDxihn5eSgA==

Current Net Transfers 1980

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:M62WSclNO/KqPTvR+zC7nQ==

Consumption of electricity per capita

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:hc9a5U3LQUP9PbsVo4U/DQ==

ICPSR energy consumption --start of war; 1985 if start after 1985

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:FvmV17edvIuaWx+5oUFgGQ==

Vanhanen's ethnic heterogeneity index

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:5vkL1Ow5bu2hXQgoUrVOJA==

Was it a Cold-War conflict?

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:0BaPRb8KmFK3ZFVOo6zAFQ==

STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<3

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:vuBtGWIssO2MogDm5xV2Hw==

VERY STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<6

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

Failure

1.

Success

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Jor9H8L9Ue8U7OajXzGUXw==

EXTREMELY STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<12

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:9chD3vJ70nDx/XLb+TGSQw==

STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<3

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:til+LSywNJ3oCCqC1YVniQ==

VERY STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<6

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:bJwHl9SvlBFaeAl/IwYrMQ==

EXTREMELY STRICT PB w/ polity cutoff<12

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:j78OGv9+0RfFoJ8qMCpvaQ==

outcome3

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:wbUAvHmd8GFc4Yr6Iw5VRw==

Only non-military outcomes

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:wbUAvHmd8GFc4Yr6Iw5VRw==

Only military outcomes

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:5F5t08FMyXd1CgHEuoSuBA==

Natural Log of DEAD

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:89tfR3wJIJZIOieCTzAo8A==

Net Transfers per Capita

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:lCcIqBIJxb7FlBd2m8V4Yg==

energy consumption per capita, start of war -ICPSR)

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:zZ+/S/WmiMehK4g/sb0y5A==

Human cost of the war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:NIwXxJwdkt+gX0nr9kKLQg==

Per capita human cost of the war

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:h5Mthh1vJQwcU7h3HdWZeQ==

Monthly human cost per capita

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:uTXisy5fCs7GdJd0pmwagw==

Natural log of human cost

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:wKCzLrFAIs1Pbt5hFXUcKg==

Were there many factions?

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

1.

3+

0.

<3

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:1g/2Qe+vNFMMLvy8UOcw3g==

Two factions

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:7d4xBKUEpCTwBXyT4W7kSQ==

Three or more factions

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:1g/2Qe+vNFMMLvy8UOcw3g==

un2cint==None

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:v0y3612pIEjGInk3jIt/EA==

un2cint==Mediation

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:KqSfcSoVy9G3fJPxupq9VA==

un2cint==Observer

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:sE552IYwDf1Iwqf4Z/5vBA==

un2cint==PKO

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:VSsQnVn9x1cPDg/mEFmGPQ==

un2cint==Enforcement

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:zmQp08DLizEAczfZUjcy8Q==

untype==None

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:x3oFhwxNKkMLgReVNjNlRg==

untype==Observer

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:sE552IYwDf1Iwqf4Z/5vBA==

untype==TradPKO

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:/vyEDr1EbzbNkORIe+g7SQ==

untype==MultiPKO

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:sKOZoqCjzzghfo/uQ6zfhA==

untype==Enforcement+

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:zmQp08DLizEAczfZUjcy8Q==

Strong UN Peace Operations

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

0.

Weak

1.

Strong

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:F1g+JGKK/7Sb3kQvPOcFgg==

UN operation types

f102289 Location:

Value

Label

Frequency

Text

1.

Med/Obs

0.

None

2.

PKO

3.

Enforce+

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:6yQbhPkYZ0DoOPl2d0berA==

No UN operations

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:x3oFhwxNKkMLgReVNjNlRg==

Mediation or Observer

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:sE552IYwDf1Iwqf4Z/5vBA==

Trad & Multidm PKOs

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:VSsQnVn9x1cPDg/mEFmGPQ==

Enforcement & Transitional Authority

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:zmQp08DLizEAczfZUjcy8Q==

Treaty-UNops interaction

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:lnQEyBCq/ntSHlD7wMUnfA==

Outcome-UNops interaction

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:I2OiHGixX5A5S9NvTBKr7g==

Square of factnum

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:eeriPFx4huQxSw3NaqYPuw==

Log of population size

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ViNqAWwCdwvSDJBJcDzcIA==

ELF-Population interaction

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:FrisLa8k7Cu8bFyaGZaj4Q==

Square of ELF-Population interaction

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:FrisLa8k7Cu8bFyaGZaj4Q==

UN operation type with treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:x3qx+N/7FuilkOh0vIpo/w==

UN operation type with outcome type

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:brtYkU5fp8iJSb+DsW/ImQ==

Primary commodity exports % GDP, with imputation

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:r6l+Xryb6fkzHFD8AsFtVg==

Energy consumption w/ imputations

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:oRg8Mpiym59X7SrvDwP1wQ==

Electricity consumption pc w/imputations

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ttBbPNJ4MfJt3o/l4S6dXA==

ELF with imputations

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:JsGlnkYXuVdTEXSOfm0Mnw==

ELF squared

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:HRdGChEdvS4u8u/WOIjrJA==

Interaction between ELF and Gurr indices

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:sD6J/dknYatY9OJx4T1rag==

Income inequality w/ imputations

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:iIFdXzigAfnXVA67j2dZNA==

Interaction between ELF and Gini indices

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:cjVuzij+m+4/wFFeFl/DnA==

Real GDP per capita w/ 4 imputations

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:R00eqiTXfEp3Tgd96hH6Aw==

Peacekeeping ops

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:VSsQnVn9x1cPDg/mEFmGPQ==

enforcement ops

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:zmQp08DLizEAczfZUjcy8Q==

War ends in informal truce

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:fhsQ9vB84R07yOcfFRKpQw==

War ends in rebel victory

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:N2tVISMOXAaO4PnkIbY75A==

War ends in govt victory

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:oerGAsUw5jPFALHLxa8jfA==

UNopindx

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:EV6/1F2jvmrXCjsP3meq1Q==

Hostility index -- H

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:gM77Ubiljc1swgZTcNuk7g==

International capacities index

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:0/wuDQogchXOzmckyizjfQ==

Local capacities index

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:wiIrPDBSp232c9q/DWW0Mg==

develop

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:7sRO2hrkM3+sBgrsZXpb5Q==

imputed electric

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:7sRO2hrkM3+sBgrsZXpb5Q==

Pr(un2int)

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:eNwkYlcsqyYnEOO5bdXNxA==

ResUN

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:7JS18wZtFLPdxHKA0oTjfg==

Pr(un2int)

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:6poDdLQsTDhitWKXKQqkSw==

Res2UN

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:HhJ2tjQW9AXDC/X80dbHOg==

L1

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:d6sPKO+Wz99wJL+Gw3kNEA==

Low Hostility

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:DC5NcU29BzDchL451CX1Cg==

L2

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Du1TIYmFbLEU8Ktc/aqEVg==

High Hostility

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:alew97CclyJRpc9ngn+aEQ==

L3

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:G66HSB7DTlLyXQny/VyYrQ==

No UN/Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Dh2pNBIbE9/BZq1DGh2omg==

L4

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:uXFfVWcMTkJYr4xEOUetdw==

PKO & Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:+LjwMJeecU6XcHaSOym5MA==

L5

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:LQQQ7cILPjkPFoWnKNn5bQ==

Low LC

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:kHEVQZUNmr4/g36NpjbZ8A==

L6

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:3GXCXgFZDVv6nmJ40CzyYA==

High LC

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:vGUqPnsVGEv+KBzG853KnA==

L7

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:hXSY0eGG6kIIv/mHfiZfYg==

Non-Ethnic War

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:nPkvmuf8O33wiTGwJXmQ5w==

L8

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:KTTSOLy/ZIBDZbd07mkEeA==

Ethnic War

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:8Q0SzlzLx8C14lSMq+jLtA==

L10

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:RHK2kWrdE9YIGBcwqp8uvw==

No PKO/Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:zx7NH6pRJhO125uB9mHy4w==

L11

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:ZgxV0OOJYJ7Hz2VIVcOTMw==

PKO & Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Ofkosh5g+W/sIpqDO4oniw==

L12

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:GYk5llgox5CtbBZ0QSAU7g==

NO PKO/Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:OvWANthlEpSB4MZDohkCyA==

L13

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:h8Xcrx5wRMK10pu7VeZG8A==

PKO & Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:cwSfOr9m1IBobroZtw7tJw==

L14

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:+Yi5LXDGlbJAOAqFjISAUQ==

No PK0/Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:yGb+nPlHVoEOn+fnMxfBFA==

L15

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:3IypPic6xX8wVw867yLntw==

PK0 & Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:vibmUP1FnZm3Qbp8PqPXRw==

L16

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:VM1tid2SybLozZSsw4qi0A==

No PK0/Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:BqthYFblGZ6/Lx0YP+Tozg==

L17

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Yyiim9V/46QJQncPdkJMMQ==

PK0 & Treaty

f102289 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:T+TB6gYUokYKj0vdm7IhSg==

y

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:V44Hh0zNKKydFma9NQ26FQ==

x1

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:PO1nM9RFZBhMci55+Gngrw==

x2

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:5ehYhj/ttah5C2xxrYnEzg==

x3

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:kKZFZgQ0ekKmcSRe1VyWRQ==

x4

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:7gb4w4WV3M6N5QgA1BkHbg==

x5

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:AAKDAhrlwigLPoJUDvgoiw==

x6

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:gItTLpjFwhN1OlY8cGoHJg==

x7

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:8gqndM/WhJfV3vAq18Vs/w==

x8

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:hWS/8zBAgm6ZtarA3UcvNA==

x9

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:2eKiuIXFdCR1agmjVlvyyQ==

x10

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:E/TP0l33dxMujmPiRpdXhA==

un1

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:/egZ60vfFBVgQ+Bd5vHBvg==

un

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:d2dcjlrFSUmHQHlLOqJSeg==

Country abbreviation for clustering

f102302 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:3:5E0+D/OklJuG01Iqi77EPg==

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

beta0.dat

Text:

File containing coefficients for table 2, ASCII format

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

beta1.dat

Text:

File containing coefficients for table 2, ASCII format

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

counterf.pdf

Text:

Article related to this study: When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference

Notes:

application/pdf

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

fig7.do

Text:

Program file to create figure 7

Notes:

text/x-stata-syntax; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

fig7.eps

Text:

Postscript file for Figure 7, Stata generated

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

figure.dat

Text:

File for figure 4, used by figure.prg, ASCII format

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

figure.do

Text:

File for figure 4, generates the data file for the figure

Notes:

text/x-stata-syntax; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

figure.pdf

Text:

File containing figures

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

figure.prg

Text:

Plots figure.eps

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

marginalun.pdf

Text:

File for figure 8

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

marginalun.prg

Text:

Program file to create figure 8

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

peace.dta

Text:

File used in conjuction with 'replication files' to create table 2, Stata format

Notes:

application/x-stata

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

readme.txt

Text:

Detailed information on data and documentation files

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

replication.do

Text:

File for creating table 2

Notes:

text/x-stata-syntax; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

replication.log

Text:

File for replicating table 2

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

wp.dat

Text:

File of useful variables created using the 'replication' files, ASCII format

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

wpx.dta

Text:

File of useful variables created using the 'replication' files, Stata format

Notes:

application/x-stata