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Part 1: Document Description
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/EZ1UDS |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Date of Distribution: |
2007-11-28 |
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Version: |
1 |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Jonathan Wand; Kenneth Shotts; Walter R. Mebane; Jasjeet Sekhon; Michael Herron; Henry E. Brady, 2007, "Replication data for: The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EZ1UDS, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:3:rcoTHUQ1IvIHvzxKzkC65A== [fileUNF] |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/EZ1UDS |
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Authoring Entity: |
Jonathan Wand (Cornell University) |
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Kenneth Shotts (Northwestern University) |
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Walter R. Mebane (Cornell University) |
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Jasjeet Sekhon (University of California, Berkeley) |
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Michael Herron (Northwestern University) |
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Henry E. Brady (University of California, Berkeley) |
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Producer: |
American Political Science Review |
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Date of Production: |
2001 |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Date of Deposit: |
2007-07-05 |
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Date of Distribution: |
2007 |
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Holdings Information: |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EZ1UDS |
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Study Scope |
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Keywords: |
Social Sciences |
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Abstract: |
We show that the butterfly ballot used in Palm Beach County, Florida, in the 2000 presidential election caused more than 2,000 Democratic voters to vote by mistake for Reform candidate Pat Buchanan, a number larger than George W. Bush’s certified margin of victory in Florida. We use multiple methods and several kinds of data to rule out alternative explanations for the votes Buchanan received in Palm Beach County. Among 3,053 U.S. counties where Buchanan was on the ballot, Palm Beach County has the most anomalous excess of votes for him. In Palm Beach County, Buchanan’s proportion of the vote on election-day ballots is four times larger than his proportion on absentee (nonbutterfly) ballots, but Buchanan’s proportion does not differ significantly between election-day and absentee ballots in any other Florida county. Unlike other Reform candidates in Palm Beach County, Buchanan tended to receive election-day votes in Democratic precincts and from individuals who voted for the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate. Robust estimation of overdispersed binomial regress ion models underpins much of the analysis. |
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Time Period: |
2000- |
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Methodology and Processing |
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Sources Statement |
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Data Access |
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Notes: |
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a> |
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Other Study Description Materials |
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Related Materials |
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<h2>Diebold Electronic Voting Systems Controversy:</h2> <a href="http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/wrm1/gov317/diebold/diebold.html" target= "_new">Background Information</a> <br /><br /> <a href="http://slashdot.org/search.pl?query=diebold&op=stories&author=&tid=&section=&sort=1" target= "_new">Click Here</a> for relevant <a href="http://slashdot.org" target= "_new">Slashdot</a> stories <br /><br /> <h2>Documents Prepared for the Palm Beach County Court:</h2> " <a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/statement/hbrady/" target= "_new">Report on Voting and Ballot Form in Palm Beach County</a>," by Henry Brady <br /><br /> "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/statement/wmebane/" target= "_new">Report on Overvote Consequences of the Ballot Form in Palm Beach County</a>," by Walter R. Mebane, Jr. |
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Related Publications |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Wand, J., Shotts, K., Sekhon, J., Mebane, W., Herron, M., & Brady, H. (2001). The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida. American Political Science Review, 95(4), 793-810. |
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Identification Number: |
http://www.jstor.org/stable/23357708 |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Wand, J., Shotts, K., Sekhon, J., Mebane, W., Herron, M., & Brady, H. (2001). The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida. American Political Science Review, 95(4), 793-810. |
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Citation |
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Title: |
<h2>Working Papers:</h2> Jasjeet S. Sekhon. "<a href="http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/papers/SekhonOpticalMatch.pdf" target= "_new">The 2004 Florida Optical Voting Machine Controversy: A Causal Analysis Using Matching.</a>" <br /><br /> Jonathan N. Wand. "<a href="http://wand.stanford.edu/elections/us/FL2004/WandFlorida2004.pdf" target= "_new">Evaluating the Impact of Voting Technology on the Tabulation of Voter Preferences: The 2004 Presidential election in Florida.</a>"<br /><br /> <h2>Publications:</h2> "<a href="http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/papers/SekhonExit.pdf" target= "_new">Data Troubles: Explaining Discrepancies between Official Votes and Exit Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election</a>". Forthcoming in 'Chance'. <br /><br /> Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Jasjeet S. Sekhon. "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/election2000/MebaneSekhon.multinom.pdf">Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data</a>." American Journal of Political Science, 48: 391-410. 2004. <a href="http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/jsekhon/faces/study/StudyPage.jsp?studyId=788" target= "_new">study available here</a> <br /><br /> Herron, Michael C. and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2004. "<a href="http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/papers/BlackCandidates_HerronSekhon.pdf" target= "_new">Black Candidates and Black Voters: Assessing the Impact of Candidate Race on Uncounted Vote Rates.</a>" Journal of Politics, 66:4. <a href="http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/papers/BlackCandidatesSupplemental_HerronSekhon.pdf" target= "_new">supplementary material for this article available here</a> <br /><br /> Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2004. "<a href="http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/wrm1/overvotes.pdf" target= "_new">The Wrong Man is President! Overvotes in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida</a>." Perspectives on Politics. <br /><br /> Michael C. Herron, Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2003. "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/election2000/HerronSekhon.pdf" target= "_new">Overvoting and Representation: An examination of overvoted presidential ballots in Broward and Miami-Dade counties</a>." Electoral Studies 22: 21-47. <br /><br /> Jonathan N. A. Wand, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2001. "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/canada/multinom.canada.pdf">A Comparative Analysis of Multinomial Voting Irregularities: Canada 2000.</a>" Proceedings of the American Statistical Society. <br /><br /> <h2>Obsolete, Deprecated and Out-of-Date Work Which May Be of Interest:</h2> "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/pc01/" target= "_new">Evidence of Excessive Buchanan Vote Share in Palm Beach County, Florida</a>," by Jonathan N. Wand, Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Michael C. Herron and Henry E. Brady. Paper Presented at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, San Antonio, Texas, March 9-11. <br /><br /> "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/wssmh.old/" target= "_new">Voting Irregularities in Palm Beach County</a>," by Jonathan N. Wand, Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr. and Michael C. Herron. <br /><br /> "<a href="http://ucdata.berkeley.edu/" target= "_new">What Happened in Palm Beach?</a>" by Henry Brady. <br /><br /> |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
<h2>Working Papers:</h2> Jasjeet S. Sekhon. "<a href="http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/papers/SekhonOpticalMatch.pdf" target= "_new">The 2004 Florida Optical Voting Machine Controversy: A Causal Analysis Using Matching.</a>" <br /><br /> Jonathan N. Wand. "<a href="http://wand.stanford.edu/elections/us/FL2004/WandFlorida2004.pdf" target= "_new">Evaluating the Impact of Voting Technology on the Tabulation of Voter Preferences: The 2004 Presidential election in Florida.</a>"<br /><br /> <h2>Publications:</h2> "<a href="http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/papers/SekhonExit.pdf" target= "_new">Data Troubles: Explaining Discrepancies between Official Votes and Exit Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election</a>". Forthcoming in 'Chance'. <br /><br /> Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Jasjeet S. Sekhon. "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/election2000/MebaneSekhon.multinom.pdf">Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data</a>." American Journal of Political Science, 48: 391-410. 2004. <a href="http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/jsekhon/faces/study/StudyPage.jsp?studyId=788" target= "_new">study available here</a> <br /><br /> Herron, Michael C. and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2004. "<a href="http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/papers/BlackCandidates_HerronSekhon.pdf" target= "_new">Black Candidates and Black Voters: Assessing the Impact of Candidate Race on Uncounted Vote Rates.</a>" Journal of Politics, 66:4. <a href="http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/papers/BlackCandidatesSupplemental_HerronSekhon.pdf" target= "_new">supplementary material for this article available here</a> <br /><br /> Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2004. "<a href="http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/wrm1/overvotes.pdf" target= "_new">The Wrong Man is President! Overvotes in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida</a>." Perspectives on Politics. <br /><br /> Michael C. Herron, Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2003. "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/election2000/HerronSekhon.pdf" target= "_new">Overvoting and Representation: An examination of overvoted presidential ballots in Broward and Miami-Dade counties</a>." Electoral Studies 22: 21-47. <br /><br /> Jonathan N. A. Wand, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2001. "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/canada/multinom.canada.pdf">A Comparative Analysis of Multinomial Voting Irregularities: Canada 2000.</a>" Proceedings of the American Statistical Society. <br /><br /> <h2>Obsolete, Deprecated and Out-of-Date Work Which May Be of Interest:</h2> "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/pc01/" target= "_new">Evidence of Excessive Buchanan Vote Share in Palm Beach County, Florida</a>," by Jonathan N. Wand, Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Michael C. Herron and Henry E. Brady. Paper Presented at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, San Antonio, Texas, March 9-11. <br /><br /> "<a href="http://elections.berkeley.edu/wssmh.old/" target= "_new">Voting Irregularities in Palm Beach County</a>," by Jonathan N. Wand, Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr. and Michael C. Herron. <br /><br /> "<a href="http://ucdata.berkeley.edu/" target= "_new">What Happened in Palm Beach?</a>" by Henry Brady. <br /><br /> |
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File Description--f112178 |
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File: 2000pres.parsed.tab |
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Notes: |
UNF:3:RAyEJkNP47t9A0W+xACWuA== |
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2000 presidential votes by precinct in PBC data |
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File Description--f112179 |
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File: 2000senate.parsed.tab |
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Notes: |
UNF:3:NT9m7NuX9b7NJycWXVtnkw== |
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2000 US Senate, precinct level, vote counts data |
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File Description--f112165 |
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File: Abseday.FL2000.tab |
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Notes: |
UNF:3:2J+w0wU1HkI1jFuOYBhMvw== |
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FL county-level absentee ballot raw data |
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File Description--f112177 |
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File: PBC.statesenate35.all.tab |
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Notes: |
UNF:3:qcXhO5vLUgnjasWbFl96Bg== |
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2000 FL State Senate,district 35, precinct level, vote counts data |
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File Description--f112180 |
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File: PBC.ushouse16.all.tab |
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Notes: |
UNF:3:rTMGGE80wswPNx3VLgDoug== |
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2000 US House race, district 16, precinct level, vote counts data |
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File Description--f654645 |
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File: Table_out.tab |
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Notes: |
UNF:3:4cVcoO6D0644qzELJsymjg== |
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Ballot data |
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File Description--f112166 |
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File: US.with2000censusAKRIDEHI.26july.tab |
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Notes: |
UNF:3:NxRplu8zUeOo8hX36zF85A== |
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National county data |
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Label: |
Absentee.all.zip |
|
Text: |
FL county-level absentee ballot R code/output |
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Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
Acknowledgements |
|
Text: |
Acknowledgments for this study |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
Ballot.all.zip |
|
Text: |
PBC ballot-image R code/output |
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Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
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Label: |
Contact.info |
|
Text: |
Email addresses of the authors of this study |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
Data.zip |
|
Text: |
Data (in original ascii file format), documentation, and R code/output |
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Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
Manifest.zip.txt |
|
Text: |
Lists and explains the contents of each bundle of this study |
|
Notes: |
text/plain |
|
Label: |
National.all.zip |
|
Text: |
National county-level R code/output |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
Precinct.all.zip |
|
Text: |
PBC precinct-level R code/output |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
Readme |
|
Text: |
Overview and description of the election data and code archive |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
Readme_absentee |
|
Text: |
Important information about datasets and code used in this study |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
Readme_ballot |
|
Text: |
Important information about datasets and code used in this study |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
Readme_ballot-table |
|
Text: |
Descriptions of columns in table.out |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
Readme_national |
|
Text: |
Important information about datasets and code used in this study |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
Readme_national-data |
|
Text: |
Variable descriptions for the national data |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
Readme_precinct |
|
Text: |
Important information about datasets and code used in this study |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
Readme_precinct-data |
|
Text: |
Variable descriptions for the precinct data |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |