Single-Party Government, Prime Minister Psychology, and the Diversionary Use of Force: Theory and Evidence from the British Case (doi:10.7910/DVN/FZYSKO)

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Single-Party Government, Prime Minister Psychology, and the Diversionary Use of Force: Theory and Evidence from the British Case

doi:10.7910/DVN/FZYSKO

Harvard Dataverse

2019-12-18

1

Foster, Dennis; Keller, Jonathan, 2019, "Single-Party Government, Prime Minister Psychology, and the Diversionary Use of Force: Theory and Evidence from the British Case", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/FZYSKO, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:lUbjSkE/xxfKjumPGJZxhw== [fileUNF]

Single-Party Government, Prime Minister Psychology, and the Diversionary Use of Force: Theory and Evidence from the British Case

doi:10.7910/DVN/FZYSKO

Foster, Dennis (Virginia Military Institute - International Studies)

Keller, Jonathan (James Madison University)

Harvard Dataverse

Interactions, International

Interactions, International

2019-12-18

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/FZYSKO

Social Sciences, Diversionary use of force, Foreign policy, Europe

This paper develops expectations about the likelihood of diversionary conflict initiation by parliamentary democracies with single-party majoritarian (SPM) governments. While most of the literature on diversion and governmental arrangement claims that SPMs have little incentive and/or limited capacity to execute diversionary gambits, we contend that the structural and environmental impetuses for diversion in such states are in fact largely indeterminate. We posit that the psychological attributes of prime ministers under SPM – in particular, their level of distrust – is the most important predictor of how they view structural and environmental constraints, and thus of whether they will militarily divert from poor economic conditions. Distrustful prime ministers are predisposed to the use of force, will dwell on the costs of economic problems, and fear that co-partisan MPs (especially in the cabinet) have designs on their office. Thus, despite having a legislative majority, these leaders will choose diversionary conflict over economic policy fixes. We conduct a partial test of this hypothesis in the British case from 1945 to 2007, and our analyses provide robust support.

<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>

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• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

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• diff1_2
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• predv_1
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• predv_2
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• predv_3
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• ukmidinit - MID Initiation by UK
• ccode1 - COW CCode Num for state 1
• ccode2 - COW CCode Num for state 2
• year - Year of observation
• abbrev1 - Country Abbreviation state 1
• abbrev2 - Country Abbreviation state 2
• distrust - Distrust (controlled sample)
• mul_py - Time since last mul_cwinit
• relpow - Relative Power (UK:State J)
• PMP_seats - % of Seats Held by Prime Minister's Party
• Lab - Labour PM
• UKwar - UK War Involvement
• ann_misery - Annual Misery Index (inflat+unemp)
• lndist - Logged Distance btw Capitals
• elect - UK National Election
• tradevol - Dyadic Trade Volume
• mpy2 - Peace Years ^2
• mpy3 - Peace Years ^3
• distrust_mis - Distrust x Misery
• rohr_distrust - Rohrer (2014) Distrust Measure
• rohrdist_mis - Rohrer's Distrust x Misery
• polity_j - Polity Score of State J
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Summary Statistics: StDev 0.0; Max. 0.005429927259683609; Min. 0.005429927259683609; Mean 0.005429927259683609; Valid 1.0;

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f3648248 Location:

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Summary Statistics: Max. 1.3152981409803033E-4; Min. 1.3152981409803033E-4; StDev 0.0; Valid 1.0; Mean 1.3152981409803033E-4

Variable Format: numeric

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f3648248 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 8.634268888272345E-4; Valid 1.0; Max. 8.634268888272345E-4; Mean 8.634268888272345E-4; StDev 0.0;

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Summary Statistics: StDev 0.0; Max. 0.0015446323668584228; Mean 0.0015446323668584228; Min. 0.0015446323668584228; Valid 1.0

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f3648248 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 2.450331812724471E-4; Valid 1.0; Min. 2.450331812724471E-4; Mean 2.450331812724471E-4; StDev 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

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f3648248 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.003140256740152836; StDev 0.0; Min. 0.003140256740152836; Mean 0.003140256740152836; Valid 1.0

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f3648248 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.004210503771901131; Valid 1.0; Min. 0.004210503771901131; Max. 0.004210503771901131; StDev 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

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f3648248 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.0; Min. 2.79952771961689E-4; Mean 2.79952771961689E-4; Max. 2.79952771961689E-4; Valid 1.0

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f3648248 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1.0; Mean 0.009782353416085243; Min. 0.009782353416085243; Max. 0.009782353416085243; StDev 0.0;

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f3648248 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1.0; StDev 0.0; Mean 0.00659448467195034; Min. 0.00659448467195034; Max. 0.00659448467195034

Variable Format: numeric

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f3648248 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1.0; Min. 2.0858354400843382E-4; StDev 0.0; Max. 2.0858354400843382E-4; Mean 2.0858354400843382E-4;

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: Min. 0.01621709018945694; StDev 0.0; Mean 0.01621709018945694; Valid 1.0; Max. 0.01621709018945694

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Summary Statistics: StDev 0.0; Min. 0.0035320718307048082; Mean 0.0035320718307048082; Valid 1.0; Max. 0.0035320718307048082

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:m7oUKWdzF4R87Y1agvMSmg==

f3648253 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1.0; Mean 9.563586208969355E-4; Min. 9.563586208969355E-4; StDev 0.0; Max. 9.563586208969355E-4

Variable Format: numeric

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Summary Statistics: StDev 0.0; Min. 0.007086241617798805; Mean 0.007086241617798805; Valid 1.0; Max. 0.007086241617798805;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:I7Md+re6mNUy3yGKcx+EQA==

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Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0024405531585216522; Mean 0.0024405531585216522; Valid 1.0; StDev 0.0; Max. 0.0024405531585216522;

Variable Format: numeric

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f3648253 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 8.415394113399088E-4; StDev 0.0; Mean 8.415394113399088E-4; Min. 8.415394113399088E-4; Valid 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

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Variable Format: numeric

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f3648253 Location:

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Summary Statistics: Min. 0.001375528983771801; Valid 1.0; StDev 0.0; Mean 0.001375528983771801; Max. 0.001375528983771801

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f3648253 Location:

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Summary Statistics: Max. -9.905359474942088E-4; StDev 0.0; Valid 1.0; Mean -9.905359474942088E-4; Min. -9.905359474942088E-4;

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Summary Statistics: Mean -0.002264551119878888; StDev 0.0; Min. -0.002264551119878888; Valid 1.0; Max. -0.002264551119878888

Variable Format: numeric

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f3648253 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -7.250125054270029E-5; Valid 1.0; Mean -7.250125054270029E-5; StDev 0.0; Max. -7.250125054270029E-5;

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f3648253 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -5.081637646071613E-4; Max. -5.081637646071613E-4; Valid 1.0; StDev 0.0; Mean -5.081637646071613E-4

Variable Format: numeric

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f3648253 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.0; Max. -0.0010796762071549892; Mean -0.0010796762071549892; Min. -0.0010796762071549892; Valid 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

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f3648253 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean -6.373468204401433E-5; Valid 1.0; StDev 0.0; Min. -6.373468204401433E-5; Max. -6.373468204401433E-5

Variable Format: numeric

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f3648253 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -1.9833227270282805E-4; Valid 1.0; Mean -1.9833227270282805E-4; StDev 0.0; Max. -1.9833227270282805E-4

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:SIhXYxiTs3AURPw034s6LQ==

f3648253 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean -4.0306575829163194E-4; Max. -4.0306575829163194E-4; Valid 1.0; StDev 0.0; Min. -4.0306575829163194E-4

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:H5zU4yL79651wQVlUCgqrg==

f3648253 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. -3.742752596735954E-5; Valid 1.0; StDev 0.0; Mean -3.742752596735954E-5; Min. -3.742752596735954E-5

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:8DxVh0ZQvcM65MW6VKflXQ==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.0047991071428570425; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.06911301481741187; Valid 8960.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:69BvLzfnGIiqSLEBtIiJng==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 200.0; Mean 200.0; Min. 200.0; StDev 0.0; Valid 8960.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:aMS9sWDr/QyoO4jWSf71Dw==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 990.0; StDev 257.96540788700565; Min. 2.0; Valid 8960.0; Mean 451.5463169642664

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:yxx/8yRd6YNIpHBu5peiJg==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 17.25933426201252; Mean 1981.8796875; Max. 2008.0; Min. 1945.0; Valid 8960.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:243FWlbzDrVxXysRnHOJng==

f3648254 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:Ce33bPQCpqe8bIG9b0g+XA==

f3648254 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:Q/96CRnbLG9ybrarwgYIxQ==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 8960.0; Mean 0.12014110060575017; Max. 0.17170000076293945; StDev 0.030456457257577486; Min. 0.04957500100135803

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:JD8WlgxJOU9HOrBs+WcyMA==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Max. 63.0; Mean 24.135044642857142; Valid 8960.0; StDev 16.91432814820711

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:3et7maQfDPuDClkwSgugAg==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.1632060606725905; Valid 8767.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.8960967113075763; Min. 0.0962841585278511;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:LjObrx640TPteQjMbYMIyQ==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.5652118222987546; Min. 0.4740157425403595; StDev 0.04609898459712066; Valid 8960.0; Max. 0.6342943906784058

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:sfoAZHgajxQgnM7DKYEYdQ==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Valid 8960.0; Mean 0.47924107142857136; StDev 0.49959676108247164; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:AWJOwHsIt56ym3oPtyOWSg==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 8960.0; StDev 0.35839927770012686; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.1513392857142854; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:cK7OubBvc01Bjf/3mMkofA==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 3.9825087089202484; Min. 0.5; Mean 7.070778991814152; Max. 13.65000057220459; Valid 8960.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:9c/mBD8v9P8nAor8JEElmA==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 9.367600440979004; StDev 0.846084711865774; Valid 8902.0; Min. 5.288267135620117; Mean 7.98210108754234

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:7oElz10y+0HPTiY0cGkXTA==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 8960.0; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.42557486252364984; Mean 0.2374999999999997;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Qx8+Gq2x7/ZtWTV6D+SOuw==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Valid 8185.0; Mean 1627.5443414873107; StDev 6756.305052768895; Max. 123821.5

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:7i03W1v0ujRCM2eEIzdbEA==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 984.0370202864113; Min. 0.0; Valid 8960.0; Max. 3969.0; Mean 868.5629464285729

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:wkoGvpcM0iPZ0wLV2JmQsA==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 36908.940178571276; Valid 8960.0; StDev 55272.179559384414; Max. 250047.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:kjbwqUsfLcy3nTz6Xf3hJw==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 8960.0; Max. 1.790321946144104; StDev 0.4639799570811535; Min. 0.052871428430080414; Mean 0.8139794549505618;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:MweInPQDI05LFwj8BRdPHA==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 2008.0; Min. 0.016806699335575104; StDev 291.50907520298074; Mean 43.39757114366245; Valid 8960.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:U+mvEfHWY8QibiCX/6MMYQ==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 8960.0; Max. 17329.041015625; StDev 2515.76896762273; Mean 374.2142098065428; Min. 0.03142852708697319;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Ov3/sDU/k/uJ+KIJ1e9XKw==

f3648254 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -10.0; Valid 7836.0; Mean 0.038029606942356665; Max. 10.0; StDev 7.476290259244507;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:hpTBm+J1HG6od16vElGsnA==

f3648251 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0018668341217562556; Max. 0.0018668341217562556; Mean 0.0018668341217562556; StDev 0.0; Valid 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:CFXJ1fr6np7bPjqb8Z4FlA==

f3648251 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1.0; Min. 7.788038928993046E-4; Mean 7.788038928993046E-4; StDev 0.0; Max. 7.788038928993046E-4

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:bbiKQfpvxqFFJBLxRYx3KQ==

f3648251 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.0; Mean 0.003276554401963949; Max. 0.003276554401963949; Valid 1.0; Min. 0.003276554401963949

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:6/ziW8sB6IZaPd33VJB4oQ==

f3648251 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 8.609922952018678E-4; StDev 0.0; Mean 8.609922952018678E-4; Min. 8.609922952018678E-4; Valid 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:5XJbPSJ4NajmcuV8Yi5D3A==

f3648251 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 3.2506079878658056E-4; Min. 3.2506079878658056E-4; Max. 3.2506079878658056E-4; StDev 0.0; Valid 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:RXa9PHr5dRemE+2aXzhhNg==

f3648251 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.0015644048107787967; StDev 0.0; Min. 0.0015644048107787967; Valid 1.0; Mean 0.0015644048107787967

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:C5MDNXR0yJKy+ABh+lkJkw==

f3648251 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -0.001005841768346727; Valid 1.0; Max. -0.001005841768346727; StDev 0.0; Mean -0.001005841768346727;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:+04401XxoY1YEl41BQMoRw==

f3648251 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -0.0022348035126924515; Mean -0.0022348035126924515; Valid 1.0; StDev 0.0; Max. -0.0022348035126924515

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:AXKtXLkEB/kp1O2HuHmULw==

f3648251 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. -6.636857870034873E-5; Valid 1.0; Min. -6.636857870034873E-5; StDev 0.0; Mean -6.636857870034873E-5

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:/BYzAONh/PuMIZVklphoxQ==

f3648255 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0016939875204116106; StDev 0.0; Max. 0.0016939875204116106; Valid 1.0; Mean 0.0016939875204116106

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2ThHz949BGNhvG3yEz6mjQ==

f3648255 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 6.615273887291551E-4; Valid 1.0; Mean 6.615273887291551E-4; Min. 6.615273887291551E-4; StDev 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:OYvK3pzZ7VPu4cVJlPC79A==

f3648255 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.003154035657644272; StDev 0.0; Valid 1.0; Max. 0.003154035657644272; Mean 0.003154035657644272

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:3pLP75jk70vBBUaHLTizFg==

f3648255 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1.0; Max. 0.0057496847584843636; Min. 0.0057496847584843636; StDev 0.0; Mean 0.0057496847584843636

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:rV9iIHtFoJ3qA53nMBjYSg==

f3648255 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.001841311575844884; StDev 0.0; Valid 1.0; Min. 0.001841311575844884; Max. 0.001841311575844884

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:BQbCSUrNuJ4fqE5pc/OW4g==

f3648255 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.0106975007802248; Valid 1.0; Min. 0.0106975007802248; StDev 0.0; Max. 0.0106975007802248

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TP0YLFUsWIEUw1ONai9bbw==

f3648255 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 0.004055697005242109; StDev 0.0; Mean 0.004055697005242109; Valid 1.0; Min. 0.004055697005242109;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XQMh7ApQ/pVLkrv3/gC/LQ==

f3648255 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0848103556782007E-4; StDev 0.0; Valid 1.0; Min. 1.0848103556782007E-4; Mean 1.0848103556782007E-4

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:BO97kavzvSUS0Ry6HdwTtQ==

f3648255 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 1.0; StDev 0.0; Mean 0.009187484160065651; Max. 0.009187484160065651; Min. 0.009187484160065651;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Xu005y8Ifus9nEbNrAVgNA==

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ATT00001.htm

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ATT00009.htm

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ATT00013.htm

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churchill_blair.do

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F_K_Table_2-1.do

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heath_thatcher.do

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mac_maj.do

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readme_Foster_Keller.txt

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