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Part 1: Document Description
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: The Future of Death in America |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/IEANXM |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Date of Distribution: |
2011-06-13 |
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Version: |
12 |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
King, Gary; Soneji, Samir, 2011, "Replication data for: The Future of Death in America", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IEANXM, Harvard Dataverse, V12, UNF:5:bkO65MmINN1lsM7QjNZlcw== [fileUNF] |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: The Future of Death in America |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/IEANXM |
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Authoring Entity: |
King, Gary (Harvard University) |
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Soneji, Samir (Dartmouth Medical School) |
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Date of Production: |
2011 |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Date of Deposit: |
2011-06-13 |
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Holdings Information: |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IEANXM |
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Study Scope |
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Keywords: |
Social Sciences |
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Abstract: |
Population mortality forecasts are widely used for allocating public health expenditures, setting research priorities, and evaluating the viability of public pensions, private pensions, and health care financing systems. In part because existing methods seem to forecast worse when based on more information, most forecasts are still based on simple linear extrapolations that ignore known biological risk factors and other prior information. We adapt a Bayesian hierarchical forecasting model capable of including more known health and demographic information than has previously been possible. This leads to the first age- and sex-specific forecasts of American mortality that simultaneously incorporate, in a formal statistical model, the effects of the recent rapid increase in obesity, the steady decline in tobacco consumption, and the well known patterns of smooth mortality age profiles and time trends. Formally including new information in forecasts can matter a great deal. For example, we estimate an increase in male life expectancy at birth from 76.2 years in 2010 to 79.9 years in 2030, which is 1.8 years greater than the U.S. Social Security Administration projection and 1.5 years more than U.S. Census projection. For females, we estimate more modest gains in life expectancy at birth over the next twenty years from 80.5 years to 81.9 years, which is virtually identical to the Social Security Administration projection and 2.0 years less than U.S. Census projections. We show that these patterns are also likely to greatly affect the aging American population structure. We offer an easy-to-use approach so that researchers can include other sources of information and potentially improve on our forecasts too. <br /><br /> <a href="http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol25/1/" target="_blank">Website</a> <br /><br /> See also: <a href="http://gking.harvard.edu/category/research-interests/applications/mortality-studies" target="_blank">Mortality Studies</a> |
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Methodology and Processing |
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Sources Statement |
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Data Access |
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Notes: |
This dataset is made available without information on how it can be used. You should communicate with the Contact(s) specified before use. |
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Other Study Description Materials |
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Related Publications |
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Citation |
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Title: |
King, Gary, and Samir Soneji. 2011. "The Future of Death in America." Demographic Research, Vol. 25, No 1.: 1-38.<a href="http://j.mp/l8hnHs" target="_blank"> Link to article</a> |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
King, Gary, and Samir Soneji. 2011. "The Future of Death in America." Demographic Research, Vol. 25, No 1.: 1-38.<a href="http://j.mp/l8hnHs" target="_blank"> Link to article</a> |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Soneji, Samir, and Gary King. 2011. "Statistical Security for Social Security." Demography, Vol. 49, No. 3: 1037-1060. <a href="https://gking.harvard.edu/files/gking/files/ssc.pdf" target="_blank"> Link to article</a> |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Soneji, Samir, and Gary King. 2011. "Statistical Security for Social Security." Demography, Vol. 49, No. 3: 1037-1060. <a href="https://gking.harvard.edu/files/gking/files/ssc.pdf" target="_blank"> Link to article</a> |
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Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:5:2ZTANRgfstji3LCXEsuW+w== |
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bmi.smooth.Rdata |
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application/x-rlang-transport |
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Label: |
calculate.ssa.life.expectancy.R |
|
Text: |
Social Security Administration (SSA) life expectancy The script loads the SSA mortality rates and calculates the corresponding life expectancy estimates |
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text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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condense.qx.fxn.R |
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Text: | |
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text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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covert.ssa.mx.to.qx.R |
|
Text: |
converts the SSA mortality rates (m_x) into conditional probabilities of death (q_x), using a_x values from the Human Mortality Database. |
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text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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csid2450000.txt |
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file for each age named 'csid2450XXX.txt', where 2450 is the country code for the US and XXX represents the three-digit age |
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text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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csid2450001.txt |
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csid2450088.txt |
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csid2450092.txt |
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csid2450093.txt |
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csid2450094.txt |
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csid2450095.txt |
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csid2450096.txt |
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csid2450097.txt |
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csid2450098.txt |
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csid2450099.txt |
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csid2450100.txt |
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text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
FileCreate.R |
|
Text: |
creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
forecast.weights.R |
|
Text: |
loads the forecasts and allows the user to input a selection of weights for smoothing over age, time, trend, and model fit |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
graph.age.time.domain.R |
|
Text: |
plots the forecast in the age and time domain and also includes the SSA intermediate cost projection |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
graph.life.expectancy.oadr.R |
|
Text: |
plots the forecasted life expctancy and OADR, comparing both to SSA projections |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
graph.objective.function.R |
|
Text: |
recreate the example presented in the Appendix |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
graph.old.R |
|
Text: |
calcuates and plots the OLS forecasts that include as covariates time only, time and lagged smoking, and time, lagged smoking, and lagged obesity |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
graph.uncertainty.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
hmd.lt.con_1.txt |
|
Text: |
1x5 US life table for males and females |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
hmd.lt.txt |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
hmd.qx.Rdata |
|
Text: |
conditional probabilities of death |
|
Notes: |
application/x-rlang-transport |
|
Label: |
mort.pdf |
|
Text: |
Original Publication based on this Replication |
|
Notes: |
application/pdf |
|
Label: |
prepare-us-files.R |
|
Text: |
loads historical mortality from the Human Mortality Database, historical smoking, and historical obesity. The script will create two subdirectories in the working directory named 'US-male' and 'US-female' |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
readme.txt |
|
Text: |
Document detailing file information and how to replicate this study |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
smoking.smooth.Rdata |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
application/x-rlang-transport |
|
Label: |
ssa.2009.trustees.le.txt |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
ssa.mx.rates.2009.txt |
|
Text: |
SSA mortality rates |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmoking10.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmoking15.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmoking20.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmoking25.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmoking5.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmokingbmi10.R |
|
Text: |
Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi25.R' processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years. |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmokingbmi15.R |
|
Text: |
Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi25.R' processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years. |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmokingbmi20.R |
|
Text: |
Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi25.R' processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years. |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmokingbmi25.R |
|
Text: |
Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi25.R' processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years. |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmokingbmi25_appendix_example.R |
|
Text: |
recreate the example presented in the Appendix |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USfemalesmokingbmi5.R |
|
Text: |
Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi25.R' processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years. |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USmalesmoking10.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USmalesmoking15.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USmalesmoking20.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USmalesmoking25.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USmalesmoking5.R |
|
Text: | |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USmalesmokingbmi10.R |
|
Text: |
Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi25.R' processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years. |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USmalesmokingbmi15.R |
|
Text: |
Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi25.R' processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years. |
|
Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
|
Label: |
USmalesmokingbmi20.R |
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Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi25.R' processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years. |
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text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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USmalesmokingbmi25.R |
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Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi#.R' processes the US forecast for males with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at 25 years processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years |
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text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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USmalesmokingbmi5.R |
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Prepare forecasts The script 'FileCreate.R" creates forecasts scripts saved in the /scripts subdirectory. The files are named according to the sex, covariates, and lag of the forecast. For example, 'USmalesmokingbmi25.R' processes the US forecast for males/females with the covariates smoking and obesity with the lag set at # years. |
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text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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US_male_data.zip |
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file for each age named 'csid2450XXX.txt', where 2450 is the country code for the US and XXX represents the three-digit age |
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application/zip |