|
View: |
Part 1: Document Description
|
|
Citation |
|
|---|---|
|
Title: |
Replication data for: Disputes, Democracies, & Dependencies: A Re-examination of the Kantian Peace |
|
Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/NYHKQL |
|
Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
|
Date of Distribution: |
2008-02-20 |
|
Version: |
2 |
|
Bibliographic Citation: |
Michael D. Ward; Randolph Siverson; Xun Cao, 2008, "Replication data for: Disputes, Democracies, & Dependencies: A Re-examination of the Kantian Peace", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/NYHKQL, Harvard Dataverse, V2 |
|
Citation |
|
|
Title: |
Replication data for: Disputes, Democracies, & Dependencies: A Re-examination of the Kantian Peace |
|
Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/NYHKQL |
|
Authoring Entity: |
Michael D. Ward (University of Washington) |
|
Randolph Siverson (University of California) |
|
|
Xun Cao (University of Washington) |
|
|
Date of Production: |
2007 |
|
Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
|
Distributor: |
Michael D. Ward |
|
Date of Deposit: |
2007 |
|
Date of Distribution: |
2007 |
|
Holdings Information: |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/NYHKQL |
|
Study Scope |
|
|
Abstract: |
Militarized interstate disputes are widely thought to be less likely among democratic countries that have high levels of trade and extensive participation in international organizations. We re-examine this broad finding of the Kantian peace literature in the context of a model that incorporates the high degree of dependency among countries. Based on in-sample statistical tests, as well as out-of-sample, predictive cross-validation, we find that results frequently cited in the literature are plagued by over-fitting and can not be characterized as identifying the underlying structure through which international conflict is influenced by democracy, trade, and international governmental organizations. We conclude that much of the statistical association typically reported in this literature apparently stems from three components: a) geographical proximity, b) dependence among militarized interstate disputes with the same initiator or target, and c) the higher-order dependencies in these dyadic data. Once these are incorporated, covariates associated with the Kantian peace tripod lose most of their statistical power. We do find that higher levels of joint democracy are associated with lower probabilities of militarized interstate dispute involvement. We find that despite high statistical significance and putative substantive importance, none of the variables representing the Kantian tripod is associated with any substantial degree of predictive power. |
|
Time Period: |
1950-2000 |
|
Methodology and Processing |
|
|
Sources Statement |
|
|
Data Access |
|
|
Notes: |
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a> |
|
Other Study Description Materials |
|
|
Related Publications |
|
|
Citation |
|
|
Title: |
Ward, Michael D.; Siverson, Randolph; Cao, Xun (2007). "Disputes, Democracies, & Dependencies: A Re-examination of the Kantian Peace" American Journal of Political Science. 51 (3). <a href="http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00269.x" target= "_new"> article available here </a> |
|
Bibliographic Citation: |
Ward, Michael D.; Siverson, Randolph; Cao, Xun (2007). "Disputes, Democracies, & Dependencies: A Re-examination of the Kantian Peace" American Journal of Political Science. 51 (3). <a href="http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00269.x" target= "_new"> article available here </a> |
|
Label: |
195059.zip |
|
Text: |
1950s Rdata files and program files in original file format |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
196069.zip |
|
Text: |
1960s Rdata files and program files in original file format |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
197079.zip |
|
Text: |
1970s Rdata files and program files in original file format |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
198089.zip |
|
Text: |
1980s Rdata files and program files in original file format |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
199000.zip |
|
Text: |
1990s Rdata files and program files in original file format |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
Cv.zip |
|
Text: |
Cross-validation Rdata and codes files in original file format |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
Data_aggregate.r |
|
Text: |
Template program |
|
Notes: |
text/plain |
|
Label: |
Feb132007.pdf |
|
Text: |
Article for this study |
|
Notes: |
application/pdf |
|
Label: |
Gbme_run.r |
|
Text: |
GMBE |
|
Notes: |
text/plain |
|
Label: |
Map_latent.r |
|
Text: |
Display latent positions |
|
Notes: |
text/plain |
|
Label: |
MCMCreplication.pdf |
|
Text: |
This explains more about using the base year as priors for estimating additional years. It also explains two new sets of files and points to additional documentation. |
|
Notes: |
application/pdf |
|
Label: |
Predict_in_sample.r |
|
Text: |
Predict in sample |
|
Notes: |
text/plain |
|
Label: |
Predict_out_sample.r |
|
Text: |
Predict out-of-sample |
|
Notes: |
text/plain |
|
Label: |
Rep_2000_others.zip |
|
Text: |
Contains Robjects, data, and Rprograms to illustrate the replication of results using 2000 as a base year. |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
ROC.r |
|
Text: |
ROC plots |
|
Notes: |
text/plain |
|
Label: |
Ropeladder.r |
|
Text: |
Some displays |
|
Notes: |
text/plain |
|
Label: |
uninform5k_2000.zip |
|
Text: |
Robjects, Rprograms, and data to illustrate the replication of results with uninformative prior information. |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |
|
Label: |
Years.zip |
|
Text: |
Annual archive Rdata files in original file format |
|
Notes: |
application/x-zip-compressed |