Replication Data for: "The Global Politics of Scientific Consensus: Evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (doi:10.7910/DVN/OYXFOE)

View:

Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
Entire Codebook

Replication Data for: "The Global Politics of Scientific Consensus: Evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"

doi:10.7910/DVN/OYXFOE

Harvard Dataverse

2025-03-04

1

Hai, Zuhad, 2025, "Replication Data for: "The Global Politics of Scientific Consensus: Evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OYXFOE, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:r/P2aCfpnkPhd+/BsIhxiw== [fileUNF]

Replication Data for: "The Global Politics of Scientific Consensus: Evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"

doi:10.7910/DVN/OYXFOE

Hai, Zuhad (New York University)

Harvard Dataverse

Hai, Zuhad

Hai, Zuhad

2025-02-11

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OYXFOE

Social Sciences

When is science politicized in the international climate change regime? Does greater scientific certainty protect it from becoming politically contentious? I study these questions in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the organization responsible for communicating the global scientific consensus on climate change. Using newly digitized data from interstate negotiations at the IPCC, I show that states attempt to influence the IPCC's assessment of scientific consensus in line with their bargaining positions in climate change negotiations. Estimating an ideal point model, I find that the predominant cleavage over climate science is distributional: between new and old industrializers with broader ideological disagreements, rather than between large polluters and vulnerable countries. Next, I show that this cleavage is mediated by scientific uncertainty. Large polluters are more likely to agree with each other on interpretations of relatively uncertain science, which allows them to weaken the scientific basis for strong climate agreements. Conversely, these countries are less likely to agree on relatively certain science, which heightens conflict over the distribution of the burden of mitigation. Greater scientific certainty may not decrease the politicization of science but instead changes the nature of this politicization.

• Number of cases: 174504

• No. of variables per record: 11

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:iUZtovxRqRCctKwpKM8mEQ==

• Number of cases: 574

• No. of variables per record: 14

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:ISO5GPHaWU8EzZDug378kA==

• Number of cases: 3706

• No. of variables per record: 33

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:KjZZQJqUlNNchRJCxUlFeQ==

• Number of cases: 7705

• No. of variables per record: 9

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:9Ku0aKNPFuS80IM82M4Lcg==

• Number of cases: 189

• No. of variables per record: 5

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:sPJtWL5lSDa+1G+R/C90iw==

• Number of cases: 88

• No. of variables per record: 6

• Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

UNF:6:SKmMexDo8S5cIwx8jzQ+1g==

• x - x
• iso3c - iso3c
• interventionid - interventionid
• document - document
• statementid - statementid
• section - section
• subsection - subsection
• sectionid_unique - sectionid_unique
• ar6 - ar6
• wg - wg
• uncertaintyscore2 - uncertaintyscore2
• statementid - statementid
• document - document
• section - section
• subsection - subsection
• statement - statement
• anyintervention - anyintervention
• numinterventions - numinterventions
• uncertaintyscore2 - uncertaintyscore2
• llenstatement - llenstatement
• nreferences - nreferences
• lenstatement - lenstatement
• ar6 - ar6
• wg - wg
• sectionidunique - sectionidunique
• iso2c - iso2c
• iso3c - iso3c
• country - country
• year - year
• ghgtotal - ghgtotal
• tempextreme - tempextreme
• gdp - gdp
• gdpgrowth - gdpgrowth
• gdppc - gdppc
• pop - pop
• emissionspercapita - emissionspercapita
• g77_china - g77_china
• oif - oif
• lmdc - lmdc
• sids - sids
• lldc - lldc
• umbrella_group - umbrella_group
• eu - eu
• league_of_arab_states - league_of_arab_states
• cartagena_dialogue - cartagena_dialogue
• african_group - african_group
• alba - alba
• ldc - ldc
• ailac - ailac
• opec - opec
• eig - eig
• cacam - cacam
• aosis - aosis
• basic - basic
• cfrn - cfrn
• annex_i - annex_i
• unideal - unideal
• histemissions - histemissions
• iso3cA - iso3cA
• iso3cB - iso3cB
• dist - dist
• ldist - ldist
• contig - contig
• comlang_off - comlang_off
• comcol - comcol
• ldyadictrade - ldyadictrade
• alliance - alliance
• iso3c - iso3c
• idealpoint1 - idealpoint1
• idealpoint2 - idealpoint2
• Country - Country
• genov_loadings - genov_loadings
• x1up - x1up
• x1down - x1down
• x1 - x1
• iso3c - iso3c
• order1 - order1
• country - country

f10882717 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. -1.0; Mean 0.011953880713336796; StDev 0.13510071480832042; Valid 174504.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:aRujV/5eeAwZaWKzsYt5XA==

f10882717 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:GeQmvFYaU1wip5NlxxAvvA==

f10882717 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 174504.0; Min. 1.0; StDev 572.4443593205013; Mean 992.0; Max. 1983.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:mbieQRbKuLX8aE/UG39xDw==

f10882717 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:iADiq3zmDqYoiQCZ/sx72Q==

f10882717 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 174504.0; Mean 372.4074634395398; StDev 139.28629989796966; Min. 1.0; Max. 574.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Wtl3WcR6lrJGn61vLRrOZg==

f10882717 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:9YPenJnlEtzeN6abawcTKg==

f10882717 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:3U40JUCe6YjUdDze66NQCw==

f10882717 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 15.704992435708416; StDev 5.139933970910374; Max. 22.0; Valid 174504.0; Min. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:U70Fzp90eVIusS9csgB9Ig==

f10882717 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 174504.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.8340897629850293; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.37200110656796204

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:T0z2YXMBHHD61NIKjVdX0w==

f10882717 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:JJ/HXOuHVA/aXaciv62Bhw==

f10882717 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 4.0; Min. 1.0; StDev 0.48717864278243195; Valid 166232.0; Mean 2.219431420000495

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:DUfY8u894Jx1t+0ec7pZtQ==

f10882712 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 574.0; Mean 287.5; Min. 1.0; Max. 574.0; StDev 165.84380201462662

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Btjhv9JKhy8Hfly6Qu8aMA==

f10882712 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:8O/tIJDgrfKuAeXJcEGQ+g==

f10882712 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:5L4awWC1vaVhJIxEXWZiIA==

f10882712 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:sNLyM5R+cGr/fHRxRVj9Wg==

f10882712 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:SDkLi5C9YnW33h6RvmvyIg==

f10882712 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.7229965156794436; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4479085507063508; Valid 574.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:EeGAg57O/QcP+Vi7X55bxw==

f10882712 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 4.211650624766478; Max. 32.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 574.0; Mean 3.1777003484320634

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:dgjT9EhzeD2Dy5g2KspBQg==

f10882712 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.58799646586661; Max. 4.0; Mean 2.2749852360787024; Valid 551.0; Min. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:b69/3ZQZqPAOT0FEbZ+vQw==

f10882712 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 4.477336814478207; Mean 6.341089430457192; Valid 574.0; Max. 8.626764827845529; StDev 0.6626678532552783

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:GgDDelDa5ocvB3Be+b/Pdg==

f10882712 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 6.282846715328478; Valid 548.0; Min. 0.0; Max. 78.0; StDev 7.968076015667262

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:cu6l28RmCs9tkaBuiIS6HA==

f10882712 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 478.79843313409623; Max. 5579.0; Valid 574.0; Min. 88.0; Mean 695.7508710801397;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ffhcECjcnbGe4WBFB657+Q==

f10882712 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 0.5522648083623715; StDev 0.49769460794080145; Max. 1.0; Valid 574.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:vgDsOJdmuVMI7u6WAzyJCg==

f10882712 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:P9VRudrDw9Z+uY7GLTs7aw==

f10882712 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 6.3589985573278; Valid 574.0; Min. 1.0; Max. 22.0; Mean 12.45470383275266;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:yDXNMS5Zpg5opK6cpn5UgA==

f10882715 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:2s1LhTA2gM/Z/x8N7wPW+g==

f10882715 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:T1Xdwy65/mqYF5QVupL8fw==

f10882715 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:FefHVrKDtlcsjYicfBHsRw==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 3706.0; Min. 2007.0; Max. 2023.0; Mean 2015.0; StDev 4.899640571796417

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:tiQpb6BV+DRZWGP+hkG45w==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 228748.95567322266; StDev 983561.7548127632; Valid 3264.0; Min. 21.429275; Max. 1.294286834E7;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:wyd/Zrv5Q3AbKBjHTIefOg==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2873.0; Mean 1.1632637997296735; Min. 0.0; Max. 9.22658630792032; StDev 1.9457931130307766

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:LTKc+IUY9Wjq6jZxI2h8XQ==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 2.7360935E13; Valid 3655.0; Min. 2.27669721889659E7; Mean 3.7143402239292126E11; StDev 1.6390224187480195E12

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:p6EGnRSjQfaVeqTeOuhFQw==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 2.8496104627766354; StDev 6.6265313641937835; Valid 3655.0; Min. -58.318230419936; Max. 153.492640693078;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:GX9Jhdp8o4KYZNbqQVK6YQ==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 240862.18244774; StDev 27007.56276864449; Min. 170.706876502428; Valid 3655.0; Mean 18177.23300346745

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:/kYwADnMYr2U10e6uoIeKg==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 10149.0; Valid 3706.0; StDev 1.3354820919575249E8; Max. 1.428627663E9; Mean 3.388890231419133E7;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:8L9dL3qao8sL9jGhfG5ymQ==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.007031259252680901; Min. 2.4580844545024177E-4; Mean 0.00661339639272987; Max. 0.055969519484063264; Valid 3247.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:cNICdY9d/iEBMl9Xe3fecQ==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.4595007202434662; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Valid 3145.0; Mean 0.6972972972972977;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:37tq4ONeVOGlYwRoTJMlEQ==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.25945945945945764; StDev 0.43840775730706316; Min. 0.0; Valid 3145.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Uc2l3PQ3U2lIBUH0v3AAqQ==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.3419222191284281; Valid 3145.0; Mean 0.13513513513513453;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:bGlBd/6yT/nA6Zkr6yzlYA==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Valid 3145.0; StDev 0.39172111273580873; Mean 0.18918918918918923;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:BgOHBz0Fx9R72h+6DCNf9w==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.15675675675675682; Valid 3145.0; StDev 0.3636290957129483; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:c7J6gbb/AuIeFGLXZJrW0w==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 3145.0; StDev 0.21516662928471686; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.04864864864864867

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:rmHnpS3zww9ZHkCAei6sUg==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.3584480067222437; Min. 0.0; Valid 3145.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.15135135135135114;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:k1J+aCQzrSYt7qsw47vQLg==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.11891891891891834; StDev 0.3237445531998414; Valid 3145.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:uxQy73RgFHBPzpv5p3V4Cw==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 3145.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.15675675675675657; StDev 0.36362909571294644;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2Rn1/4RgDZ/U8KxCP5P/xA==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 3145.0; Mean 0.2810810810810808; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.4495984653013938; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:B7SiO10HQYxQfgOugkBZ3g==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 3145.0; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.05945945945945874; StDev 0.23652023102110106

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:r8F1GhOsoCR3l8MR+o8LQg==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.4353973685939151; Min. 0.0; Valid 3145.0; Mean 0.2540540540540545;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:aFcfjYJhrn2SAkrz+pUAOQ==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 0.037837837837837784; StDev 0.19083426166531509; Valid 3145.0; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zmqV8W7zLFu88Zn7Ktf4Ew==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 3145.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.264520540136916; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.07567567567567557

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:a5+b+V0fcdp0HcTrK0knRA==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 3145.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.027027027027026963; Min. 0.0; StDev 0.16218794925974425;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:w2VPiFIbufpip8HcqKm8Xg==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.032432432432432226; StDev 0.17717378715881593; Valid 3145.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Wy5KPbbALze/N/BrUEWL6g==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.18918918918918987; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.39172111273580906; Min. 0.0; Valid 3145.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:3IQZdq5+LNPlf510GJE3eA==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 3145.0; Mean 0.021621621621621474; StDev 0.1454677129537775; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:DrB/M7wcKtVHBkaeDwFBIw==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 3145.0; Mean 0.28108108108107993; StDev 0.4495984653013996; Min. 0.0; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:ps2KilLWpBh246Vof0ebjQ==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.22702702702702685; Valid 3145.0; StDev 0.4189768157147415; Max. 1.0; Min. 0.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:9LZQP0LvHiEo7gLGsbLtIA==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -1.7751397142857144; StDev 0.8443668204848318; Mean -0.11018128360797985; Max. 2.603123857142857; Valid 3281.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:TKa8RWKaF7medgMt4pEPHg==

f10882715 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 15091.088566326604; Valid 3536.0; Mean 3883.0110645604423; Min. 0.0; Max. 147444.86;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:+3aIDdQZluk/J41EcJP2Bg==

f10882714 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:yklYoJy7Oy2PG9QPnhOHLA==

f10882714 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:I9jOQmOkUA70aZl7B9V9KQ==

f10882714 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 19772.34; StDev 4524.832509550465; Min. 80.98481; Mean 8180.638104228682; Valid 7189.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:4ig/ZzkQLqdV/DaIxHWXIA==

f10882714 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 8.774826077019405; StDev 0.8135221020212586; Min. 4.39426160622213; Max. 9.892039270313797; Valid 7189.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:DDbhDdJ4a3HyEYIBVi0tqA==

f10882714 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; StDev 0.15625215167376258; Min. 0.0; Valid 7189.0; Mean 0.02503825288635428;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:zMZfpNlOL17uAQKrOIKIVw==

f10882714 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Valid 7189.0; Mean 0.1780497983029627; StDev 0.382581269380996; Max. 1.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Qgcj9Z7c6A9Sj11MwVYiQw==

f10882714 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 0.28399478540092205; Max. 1.0; Mean 0.08846849353178646; Valid 7189.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:R4CyWiwTHAB77gylktg0Ug==

f10882714 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 13.372313208379028; Valid 7705.0; Mean 1.7195595062862057; StDev 2.9204401761857524; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:JttldvnVTiUta1NunD1ENw==

f10882714 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.05866320571057745; StDev 0.23500851463188002; Min. 0.0; Valid 7705.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:F63YTtZhZJNWj07x3Cj19g==

f10882713 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:skUobQIY4+pswzp+/80RDg==

f10882713 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.02012603664311147; Max. 1.1719570932999952; Min. -0.8228310664067339; Valid 189.0; StDev 0.4317370846090745

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:GTngbAGRmnK1KfLpQu79Pg==

f10882713 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 189.0; Mean -0.007155736671661557; Min. -1.7681404108445349; StDev 0.9228351983161366; Max. 1.6058521540507626;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:b3tx2/mqRP1GOBJRdpxIDw==

f10882713 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:b9qEDhH+hNs4ygMzN8mMBw==

f10882713 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -1.8258959354431012; Mean -0.014776807322851058; Valid 81.0; StDev 0.7945196958071001; Max. 1.554023283603138

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:1jBDYumWVq+U7AjX4LLMDw==

f10882719 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.3767249394395095; Min. -0.9998037798083202; Mean 0.3982157106027163; Valid 88.0; Max. 1.1440316190132347

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:GY8Vis9taKJSI4PC4VSSkw==

f10882719 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.07079506713014987; Valid 88.0; Max. 1.023119352312033; StDev 0.41801578110939336; Min. -1.1350995698278996

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6://ICMGegWLWxaVkMLY0sMQ==

f10882719 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.23475504806144884; StDev 0.39684988430888857; Min. -1.064246329620458; Max. 1.0835615707702628; Valid 88.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:XTzFNZxZF6zB54CvohWGAg==

f10882719 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:kYPLMSxWiJUwKkHFmdTtRg==

f10882719 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 88.0; StDev 25.547341675146292; Min. 1.0; Mean 44.5; Max. 88.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:DW3H9Q0NbGG4fhgWC1D1Kw==

f10882719 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:GiaqHIWTOmY/HtaqlH8OxQ==

Label:

01_estimate_idealpoints.R

type/x-r-syntax

Label:

02_results.R

type/x-r-syntax

Label:

ar5ar6statement_dyad.csv

text/csv

Label:

iso_names.RData

application/x-rlang-transport

Label:

readme.txt

text/plain

Label:

stan.fit.RData

application/x-rlang-transport