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Part 1: Document Description
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/POLLYVOTE2012 |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Date of Distribution: |
2013-12-05 |
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Version: |
1 |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Graefe, Andreas, 2013, "Replication data for: Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/POLLYVOTE2012, Harvard Dataverse, V1 |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/POLLYVOTE2012 |
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Authoring Entity: |
Graefe, Andreas (LMU Munich) |
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Producer: |
Graefe, Andreas |
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Date of Production: |
2013 |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse Network |
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Date of Deposit: |
2013-12-05 |
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Date of Distribution: |
2013 |
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Holdings Information: |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/POLLYVOTE2012 |
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Study Scope |
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Abstract: |
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to forecast the two-party popular vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when uncertainty about the election outcome is typically high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the most effective approaches to generating accurate forecasts. |
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Methodology and Processing |
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Sources Statement |
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Data Access |
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Notes: |
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a> |
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Other Study Description Materials |
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Related Publications |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Graefe, Andreas, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones Jr., and Alfred G. Cuzán. 2014. Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote. PS: Political Science & Politics (forthcoming). |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Graefe, Andreas, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones Jr., and Alfred G. Cuzán. 2014. Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote. PS: Political Science & Politics (forthcoming). |
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Label: |
PollyVote2012.xlsx |
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Text: |
Data and calculations |
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Notes: |
application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet |