Replication Data for: STATE-LEVEL FORECASTS FOR THE 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TOUGH VICTORY AHEAD FOR BIDEN (doi:10.7910/DVN/QUPBSR)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
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Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: STATE-LEVEL FORECASTS FOR THE 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TOUGH VICTORY AHEAD FOR BIDEN

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/QUPBSR

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2020-09-23

Version:

1

Bibliographic Citation:

JEROME, Bruno, 2020, "Replication Data for: STATE-LEVEL FORECASTS FOR THE 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TOUGH VICTORY AHEAD FOR BIDEN", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QUPBSR, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:DsZQdCaOMpmtl7IoJnzKcg== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication Data for: STATE-LEVEL FORECASTS FOR THE 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: TOUGH VICTORY AHEAD FOR BIDEN

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/QUPBSR

Authoring Entity:

JEROME, Bruno (University of Paris II - Pantheon Assas)

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Access Authority:

JEROME, Bruno

Depositor:

JEROME, Bruno

Date of Deposit:

2020-09-21

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QUPBSR

Study Scope

Keywords:

Social Sciences

Abstract:

Most forecasting models for American presidential elections provide estimates of the national two-party vote. Since popular vote winners generally win a majority of Electoral College votes, these models can normally assume that their forecast offers a clear indication of who will end up in the Oval Office. Evidently, this assumption is not always warranted. In this short paper, we develop a forecasting model which draws on data from the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia since the 1980 presidential election. This State-by-State Political Economy Model (2SPE Model) produces vote share forecasts for the two major party candidates in every state which can then be used to make a projection of the Electoral College result.

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>

Other Study Description Materials

File Description--f4082634

File: unemployment_2spe_model.tab

  • Number of cases: 2340

  • No. of variables per record: 15

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:jhT9NQEpUY12nnNijIorlg==

File Description--f4082636

File: data_2spe_model.tab

  • Number of cases: 561

  • No. of variables per record: 31

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:6:81yRPVdAbcESOYArbDiLRg==

Variable Description

List of Variables:
  • id - ID
  • year - Year
  • state - State
  • jan - January
  • feb - February
  • mar - March
  • apr - April
  • may - May
  • jun - June
  • jul - July
  • aug - August
  • sep - September
  • oct - October
  • nov - November
  • dec - December
  • id - Unique identification number
  • election - Election
  • incumbent - Incumbent party
  • state - State name
  • abbr - State abbreviation
  • statewinner - State winner
  • nationalwinner - National winner
  • fips - FIPS
  • registered - Total number of registered voters x 1,000 (November 2016)
  • elecvote - Electoral College votes
  • incv - Incumbent vote share
  • twoincv - Incumbent two-party vote share
  • ince - Incumbent Electoral College vote
  • oppv - Opposition vote share (100 - incv)
  • oppe - Opposition Electoral College vote
  • chav - Challenger vote share (Dem or Rep)
  • twochav - Challenger two-party vote share
  • chae - Challenger Electoral College vote (Dem or Rep)
  • unemp - Change in unemployment
  • legparty - Party controlling state legislature
  • legcont - Does the party of the incumbent candidate controls the state legislature?
  • jpa2 - JPA2
  • jpa0 - JPA0
  • ppi5216 - PPI5216
  • ppi8016 - PPI8016
  • indv - INDV
  • chavp - CHAVP
  • rhsc - RHSC
  • dhsc - DHSC
  • dcds - DCDS
  • dcrs - DCRS

Variables

ID

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 2340.0; Min. 1.0; Mean 1170.5; StDev 675.6441371017734; Valid 2340.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:0dWG6YbBs7paxawC7UvfzQ==

Year

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1976.0; Valid 2340.0; StDev 12.989949085937068; Max. 2020.0; Mean 1998.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:AegJ9GFZXxuTyBLPQtGw6Q==

State

f4082634 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:mXonFTmeEt1agqk5JmxQSg==

January

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 18.600000381469727; Valid 2340.0; StDev 2.11478684679499; Mean 5.9048717986824135; Min. 2.299999952316284

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:mwHmI3C9vLDHoPS4y9bvzg==

February

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 2.200000047683716; Valid 2340.0; Max. 18.799999237060547; Mean 5.898333335737893; StDev 2.120953858106254

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Y99R4e8ULU7lA08n3ma9eQ==

March

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 5.9049145358240525; StDev 2.113198162116026; Max. 18.700000762939453; Min. 2.0; Valid 2340.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:o379o2g/PRiMMkTBUSIiNg==

April

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 6.12029914713314; Max. 30.100000381469727; StDev 2.48628265304255; Min. 2.200000047683716; Valid 2340.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:CC6ZNseGUJlhByzdj9gMUA==

May

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 2.3546712763442184; Valid 2340.0; Max. 25.299999237060547; Mean 6.0728205109253866; Min. 2.200000047683716;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:h7fYokmBQ6kZf0go6aQ2mA==

June

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 2.1992164333943287; Min. 2.299999952316284; Valid 2340.0; Mean 6.008076921996902; Max. 18.100000381469727;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WN8W3Aw1sjIM+Tu9DcE5BA==

July

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2288.0; Max. 17.899999618530273; StDev 2.088576110064062; Mean 5.912237770073903; Min. 2.299999952316284;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:NUGejeTkX7eIQEFtBRCTnw==

August

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 2288.0; Max. 17.600000381469727; StDev 2.0833423996596223; Mean 5.905463286525714; Min. 2.200000047683716;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:YhcBxe9KWmEDhDTHESdBOA==

September

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 17.299999237060547; Min. 2.200000047683716; Valid 2288.0; Mean 5.901573429053475; StDev 2.083037276361038

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:RR50IZmvXiw3K8J9zhvzbA==

October

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 16.899999618530273; Min. 2.0999999046325684; Mean 5.895847912434931; Valid 2288.0; StDev 2.085843616282368

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:pVAX0LEV6oborzcP1BAyMw==

November

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 2.0939539530989077; Valid 2288.0; Mean 5.891608395463932; Max. 17.700000762939453; Min. 2.0999999046325684

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:m8LGD73gO07YR/YgLigSeg==

December

f4082634 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 2.200000047683716; StDev 2.1004301496037905; Mean 5.883435318311618; Valid 2288.0; Max. 18.299999237060547;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:V+ebTYw7iutl6S4vYBuA2Q==

Unique identification number

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 561.0; Valid 561.0; StDev 162.09102381069718; Mean 281.0; Min. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:7PiKwj9vkipsEam0v8M34A==

Election

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 1980.0; Valid 561.0; Max. 2020.0; Mean 2000.0; StDev 12.660399452059728

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:CQlKe2e+2sMuD0Ge5ikuug==

Incumbent party

f4082636 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:aveoDPy5/ThYQWhvYrIx2w==

State name

f4082636 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:rXhh5pNrvo1+C6gp6wH39Q==

State abbreviation

f4082636 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:I1IDQlS7epO8U2d8r0Y4cw==

State winner

f4082636 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:8bGjMeUDcRhinwPV+BL+Uw==

National winner

f4082636 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:GMKNx/x3wPJ6I/B+y/mDqA==

FIPS

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 561.0; Max. 56.0; Min. 1.0; Mean 28.960784313725497; StDev 15.690826326625531;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WFFj5yhNdcL66yTTAigDyg==

Total number of registered voters x 1,000 (November 2016)

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 16096.0; Valid 102.0; Min. 304.0; StDev 3138.2513870307375; Mean 3090.1176470588234;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WN1C2ABfFzkNbiFrgGNikQ==

Electoral College votes

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 55.0; Valid 561.0; Min. 3.0; Mean 10.549019607843137; StDev 9.367582967033586

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:BE7eGzIajzwT8vOyYXC5BA==

Incumbent vote share

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 11.492708273096905; Max. 90.9000015258789; Valid 510.0; Min. 6.5; Mean 47.81450986114203

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:qegwRnU3KrWWjLbR2IT3Ng==

Incumbent two-party vote share

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 510.0; Min. 6.570000171661377; Mean 50.632999993305575; Max. 95.68000030517578; StDev 11.116921747039424;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:OmZ+XYcCBVWiDLQpqtCUMA==

Incumbent Electoral College vote

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 8.66651013142898; Max. 55.0; Mean 5.550980392156863; Min. 0.0; Valid 510.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:9a1QWz4oIlP/jAbV2ZAWbA==

Opposition vote share (100 - incv)

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 52.185490155687525; StDev 11.492708300686106; Max. 93.5; Min. 9.099998474121094; Valid 510.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:mS+e9CN7/jXsWjR1FxGdLA==

Opposition Electoral College vote

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 55.0; Mean 4.996078431372546; Valid 510.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 8.225695539334074

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:9J5I0br6hN+GLGTypeasUQ==

Challenger vote share (Dem or Rep)

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 510.0; Max. 92.5; StDev 10.616174422503116; Mean 46.416078428193636; Min. 4.099999904632568;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:QNtdNCa4UUpjoyYdIRGZ/g==

Challenger two-party vote share

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 11.116926110097136; Mean 49.367019645840514; Max. 93.43000030517578; Valid 510.0; Min. 4.320000171661377

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:RiZeDUawjlXpl3bUS+50gg==

Challenger Electoral College vote (Dem or Rep)

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; StDev 8.21417813112737; Mean 4.972549019607846; Valid 510.0; Max. 55.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:OfiHQhUrO309LZXNy9SFmg==

Change in unemployment

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. -4.800000190734863; StDev 3.004220513657877; Valid 561.0; Mean 0.400594151168796; Max. 18.100000381469727

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:2ZsEFFmMr5Rl/XnY4m/quw==

Party controlling state legislature

f4082636 Location:

Variable Format: character

Notes: UNF:6:kr7GJk5fRJ4Iq4SJPaINkg==

Does the party of the incumbent candidate controls the state legislature?

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Mean 0.4313725490196077; Valid 561.0; StDev 0.4454288526185715; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:OF5hTFsO3RiO3Ck4CyyE3Q==

JPA2

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 95.98999786376953; StDev 23.8286471389236; Valid 561.0; Min. 0.0; Mean 28.673435077735263

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:Nzfuq9jfmjhagMSSENNPVA==

JPA0

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Valid 561.0; StDev 24.017735716774446; Max. 98.58999633789062; Mean 16.874126954512178; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:p56c0q2GGW1wzETp4qeTiA==

PPI5216

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Min. -1.0; StDev 0.5162229175598261; Valid 561.0; Mean 0.009429590056074367;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:YoZzINFnKzMtqJlJnehxYg==

PPI8016

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.5510211241642008; Max. 1.0; Valid 561.0; Min. -1.0; Mean 0.004777183719709802;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:iprTskqq4IJ0Yojy4h/8ZQ==

INDV

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Valid 561.0; Max. 30.399999618530273; Mean 4.005475223595651; StDev 6.331315240196904

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:xHUkXnp7baiVy6lkeKSrWg==

CHAVP

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 93.0; Mean 44.798517813657085; Valid 561.0; Min. 0.0; StDev 25.71357029120616;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:um8M/S1NrUVp8WNcQzIHaA==

RHSC

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Min. 0.0; Valid 561.0; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.21795517045481025; Mean 0.04991087344028526

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:8mZGx2yd2W5gez5glC/4hw==

DHSC

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Mean 0.035650623885917866; Max. 1.0; StDev 0.18558299800070963; Valid 561.0; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:80x02qX9eiMxjcD9zY0lqw==

DCDS

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: Max. 1.0; Mean 0.008912655971479501; StDev 0.09406909239017763; Valid 561.0; Min. 0.0;

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:WKO61FJz/CslRnOXWbzcZQ==

DCRS

f4082636 Location:

Summary Statistics: StDev 0.10295481738716254; Min. 0.0; Mean 0.010695187165775392; Valid 561.0; Max. 1.0

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:6:GbaQWO0GIJDvFq7taKPyIQ==

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

commands_2spe_model.do

Text:

Command File

Notes:

application/x-stata-syntax

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

figures_2spe_model.R

Notes:

type/x-r-syntax

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

unemployment_2spe_model.do

Notes:

application/x-stata-syntax