Replication data for: Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten the Democratic Peace? Assessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Interstate Conflict, 1921- 2001 (doi:10.7910/DVN/SKVGMK)

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Part 1: Document Description
Part 2: Study Description
Part 3: Data Files Description
Part 4: Variable Description
Part 5: Other Study-Related Materials
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Document Description

Citation

Title:

Replication data for: Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten the Democratic Peace? Assessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Interstate Conflict, 1921- 2001

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/SKVGMK

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Date of Distribution:

2007-11-28

Version:

1

Bibliographic Citation:

John R. O'Neal; Jaroslav Tir, 2007, "Replication data for: Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten the Democratic Peace? Assessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Interstate Conflict, 1921- 2001", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SKVGMK, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:3:atUf7qXBVVxNHWmGnkU9tg== [fileUNF]

Study Description

Citation

Title:

Replication data for: Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten the Democratic Peace? Assessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Interstate Conflict, 1921- 2001

Identification Number:

doi:10.7910/DVN/SKVGMK

Authoring Entity:

John R. O'Neal (University of Alabama)

Jaroslav Tir (University of Georgia)

Producer:

International Studies Quarterly

Distributor:

Harvard Dataverse

Distributor:

International Studies Quarterly

Date of Distribution:

2006

Holdings Information:

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SKVGMK

Study Scope

Topic Classification:

ISQ 2006, Volume 50, Issue 4

Abstract:

A democratic leader, anticipating a ‘‘rally ‘round the flag effect,’’ may have an incentive to divert attention from domestic economic problems by becoming involved in military conflict abroad, undermining Immanuel Kant’s prescription for ‘‘perpetual peace.’’ We assess the risk to the democratic peace by evaluating this diversionary incentive within a general dyadic model of interstate conflict, 1921–2001, using both directed and nondirected analyses. Our results indicate that economic conditions do affect the likelihood that a democracy, but not an autocracy, will initiate a fatal militarized dispute, even against another democracy. Economic growth rates sufficiently low to negate the democratic peace are, however, rare; and the behavior of five powerful democracies raises further doubts about the importance of diversions. We find no significant evidence that a bad economy makes a democratic state less likely to be targeted by others, nor does the timing of legislative elections influence the decision of democratic leaders to use force. Alth ough economic conditions affect the likelihood of a fatal dispute for democracies, the influence is sufficiently small that Kant’s hope for a more peaceful world does not seem misplaced. A copy of the article is available here http://www.bama.ua.edu/~joneal/ISQ2006_data/

Notes:

Subject: STANDARD DEPOSIT TERMS 1.0 Type: DATAPASS:TERMS:STANDARD:1.0 Notes: This study was deposited under the of the Data-PASS standard deposit terms. A copy of the usage agreement is included in the file section of this study.;

Methodology and Processing

Sources Statement

Data Access

Notes:

<a href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0">CC0 1.0</a>

Other Study Description Materials

Related Publications

Citation

Title:

O'Neal, John R., Tir, Jaroslav, 2006, "Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten the Democratic Peace? Assessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Interstate Conflict, 1921-2001" International Studies Quarterly 50 (4), 755–779: doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2006.00424.x <a href= "http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2006.00424.x" target= "_new">(article available here)</a>.

Bibliographic Citation:

O'Neal, John R., Tir, Jaroslav, 2006, "Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten the Democratic Peace? Assessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Interstate Conflict, 1921-2001" International Studies Quarterly 50 (4), 755–779: doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2006.00424.x <a href= "http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2006.00424.x" target= "_new">(article available here)</a>.

File Description--f109489

File: OTDirect.tab

  • Number of cases: 919530

  • No. of variables per record: 31

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:3:+Mb/iYEwPSmsdGcAqLiNwA==

Contains the directed dyadic data, in Stata 8 format, used in the tests reported in Tables 1-2

File Description--f109488

File: Otnondir.tab

  • Number of cases: 465443

  • No. of variables per record: 26

  • Type of File: text/tab-separated-values

Notes:

UNF:3:giZ1MQPJhuD+qLHnNxI18A==

Nondirected dyadic data used for the tests found in Table 3

Variable Description

List of Variables:
  • state - focal state, COW code
  • target - potential target state, COW code
  • year
  • democ_st - state's DEMOC-AUTOC Polity score
  • democ_tgt - target's DEMOC-AUTOC Polity score
  • depend - state's bilateral trade w/target/state's GDP
  • allies - =1 if allied
  • lncaprat - ln(state's CINC/target/s CINC
  • dircont - =1 if land border
  • distance - capital-to-capital distance
  • numstate - number of states in system
  • finitsda - =1 if fatal dispute in year t+1, originator + side A
  • pyfatA - Time since last finitsda
  • _spline1 - (pyfatA-k1) cubed
  • _spline2 - (pyfatA-k2) cubed
  • _spline3 - (pyfatA-k3) cubed
  • leadid_st - revised id for leader of state
  • autoc_st_cg - Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • mixed_st_cg - Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • democ_st_cg - Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • leadid_tgt - revised id for leader of target
  • autoc_tgt_cg - Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • mixed_tgt_cg - Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • democ_tgt_cg - Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • rgdp96_st - real 1990$ gdp per capita
  • grow_st - =((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)-1
  • rgdp96_tgt - real 1990$ gdp per capita
  • grow_tgt - =((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)-1
  • majpower - state is COW major power
  • elect_st - election in state, year t+1
  • elect_tg - election in target, year t+1
  • year
  • statea - cow code for state a
  • stateb - cow code for state b
  • lncaprat - ln large/small capability ratio
  • allies - = 1 if dyad has at least 1 alliance
  • polity_a - polity2 score, state a
  • polity_b - polity2 score, state b
  • majpow_a - = 1 if state a is a major power
  • majpow_b - = 1 if state b is a major power
  • trade - =(tradeab+tradeba)/2
  • contig - direct state-to-state contig
  • distance - capital to capital
  • numstate - number of states in system
  • cgdpa - gdp in millions current $
  • cgdpb - gdp in millions current $
  • mzfatald1 - fatality level of Maoz MID year t+1
  • leadid_a - leader identification number
  • autoc_a_cg - Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • mixed_a_cg - Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • democ_a_cg - Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • leadid_b - leader identification number
  • autoc_b_cg - Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • mixed_b_cg - Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • democ_b_cg - Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995
  • growth2a - =((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)-1
  • growth2b - =((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)-1

Variables

focal state, COW code

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:uSiGDJL/xKEOvJEpy86P3A==

potential target state, COW code

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:Zcn9uQvNUAdA9kdtHXm6EA==

year

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:VSzUyM/HVysnoVo4u4ttXg==

state's DEMOC-AUTOC Polity score

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:c3FwUmal+UMw4rGFkbb60g==

target's DEMOC-AUTOC Polity score

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:su+RE0Wuo2zZ1nQpiZuEpg==

state's bilateral trade w/target/state's GDP

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:DB2qivGWQeoP197kya/Cjw==

=1 if allied

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:WA3wKOTiYcpT1s2UjY2sXg==

ln(state's CINC/target/s CINC

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:be3ueM7qF2w+n2f541z3Nw==

=1 if land border

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:w2srgSeAcNakZGQt50ZdaQ==

capital-to-capital distance

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:qJEgMATKXi6iz7XKmjMxmw==

number of states in system

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:5lkHn+MLjbDZiuQKTBaLRA==

=1 if fatal dispute in year t+1, originator + side A

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:mWYLMM4dVUxCe5oSIKRneQ==

Time since last finitsda

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:87kyHVGK7KrGrEZeS5e9QQ==

(pyfatA-k1) cubed

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:mHIJYPF6LtsMbQRV364XKg==

(pyfatA-k2) cubed

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:CC8FDBgbExkdChb4j9+w7w==

(pyfatA-k3) cubed

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:nRvvewRufL08SrRtsSMlxA==

revised id for leader of state

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:LPTVgCkHxQTU6y5vY44MTQ==

Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:pSBY9ZMDGkGQRyjKXCVMzw==

Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:O1WDhYEbYUu/gZc5lx2f1g==

Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:9PXlnDavtwcVlBYffAvFjA==

revised id for leader of target

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:yIEc8vmxB2uvahDPsSUJ9g==

Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:RPri6DXiKejfQ5NdgAcXFg==

Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:5fjxGyM/G+0+bwBQDw9CJw==

Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:sg0WUN99LrC99UnO85thwQ==

real 1990$ gdp per capita

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:0YEQLqVkpgCmVRjZ5pXEPg==

=((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)-1

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:6y8DKwic/RhxZiwFjzOM2Q==

real 1990$ gdp per capita

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:zYb2ezQ8RSi9elT3UPMOdg==

=((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)-1

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:0jLfblC8Tvi1KVuT+QiEuQ==

state is COW major power

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:/KoJFys8jM0Vsq/sV5W45Q==

election in state, year t+1

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:WUbCJ0l5iCF56jOX40fI4A==

election in target, year t+1

f109489 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:mXVdxNlWeYV7eRhzMOlAuQ==

year

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:9WCRIbJn7oqGay4vUw1UzQ==

cow code for state a

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:TgQPGB71YHlnpT/GZEhf8Q==

cow code for state b

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:DUnJz7JV2MxgQw29fIPsDA==

ln large/small capability ratio

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:SDZpTjGseDWnfv1hHvAasA==

= 1 if dyad has at least 1 alliance

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:77p/obRBRs6wn2jT8rQa0g==

polity2 score, state a

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:LmEdVFFf6jpYj/ztIMdMuQ==

polity2 score, state b

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:cdBjs92LFKPn4QFbTh9+ag==

= 1 if state a is a major power

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:5SdZyTc3oXqNECpUb1FLjg==

= 1 if state b is a major power

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:TcyWjPX6jT08bOsiCqMj/g==

=(tradeab+tradeba)/2

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:MHbp7lhtbU8SLCBgO1XQaQ==

direct state-to-state contig

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:g/PiZY1DobxCWoUJ2zt37A==

capital to capital

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:OBDiF66xX1VFtbuO7sSqaQ==

number of states in system

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:maxaXg6ItU+eMAWw/OwWTg==

gdp in millions current $

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:elaRFARww3NjO+4Rx8HTig==

gdp in millions current $

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:QaHBcjhvwNes8plOF0cZrg==

fatality level of Maoz MID year t+1

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:yHJsr2XPIBG3P+kWlpSDfQ==

leader identification number

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:KCZuUCZ42UOveLqOdI5zbA==

Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:6ukUhaIJTw2Qb9LVdNuBHw==

Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:E25ZytFl3H5BMjfznf26OA==

Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:sMg9WUj74GB1tnUWFgo42w==

leader identification number

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:k8bHbdlr7+X1DXX61IZbmA==

Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:nOaPdq9Vew+eT3xX/lxozQ==

Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:cEmAn25+77wTmjWUn8iLJQ==

Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr 1995

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:sCGarN40YhKYIWRMFxuxQw==

=((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)-1

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:L9Yjzpq4CET08hEpZA/Ilw==

=((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)-1

f109488 Location:

Variable Format: numeric

Notes: UNF:3:BF5dXBuLXzmEgRu//lbVXQ==

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

Article.pdf

Text:

Original article for this study

Notes:

application/pdf

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

OnealTirISQData2006.zip

Text:

Stata data and do files as originally formatted

Notes:

application/x-zip-compressed

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

OT_5DEMS.DO

Text:

Stata do-file for analyses regarding five prominent democracies discussed in the text of the article but not reported in a table

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

ot_5dems.log

Text:

Stata log-file for analyses regarding five prominent democracies discussed in the text of the article but not reported in a table

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

OT_TBL1.DO

Text:

Stata do-file for Table 1

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

ot_tbl1.log

Text:

Log-file for Table 1

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

OT_TBL2.DO

Text:

Stata do-file for Table 2

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

Label:

ot_tbl2.log

Text:

Log-file for Table 2

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

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OT_TBL3.DO

Text:

Stata do-file for Table 3

Notes:

application/octet-stream

Other Study-Related Materials

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ot_tbl3.log

Text:

Log-file for Table 3

Notes:

text/plain; charset=US-ASCII

Other Study-Related Materials

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Readme.txt

Text:

Detailed information about the files in this study

Notes:

text/plain