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Part 1: Document Description
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/ZGDYNQ |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Date of Distribution: |
2007-11-28 |
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Version: |
4 |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Beck, Nathaniel; King, Gary; Zeng, Langche, 2007, "Replication data for: Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZGDYNQ, Harvard Dataverse, V4, UNF:3:rYRDzT8dCJ/BR7V9u8fObA== [fileUNF] |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Replication data for: Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture |
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Identification Number: |
doi:10.7910/DVN/ZGDYNQ |
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Authoring Entity: |
Beck, Nathaniel (New York University) |
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King, Gary (Harvard University) |
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Zeng, Langche (UC San Diego) |
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Date of Production: |
2000 |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Distributor: |
Harvard Dataverse |
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Date of Deposit: |
2006 |
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Date of Distribution: |
2000 |
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Holdings Information: |
https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZGDYNQ |
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Study Scope |
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Keywords: |
Social Sciences |
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Abstract: |
We address a well-known but infrequently discussed problem in the quantitative study of international conflict: Despite immense data collections, prestigious journals, and sophisticated analyses, empirical findings in the literature on international conflict are often unsatisfying. Many statistical results change from article to article and specification to specification. Accurate forecasts are nonexistent. In this article we offer a conjecture about one source of this problem: The causes of conflict, theorized to be important but often found to be small or ephemeral, are indeed tiny for the vast majority of dyads, but they are large, stable, and replicable wherever the ex ante probability of conflict is large. This simple idea has an unexpectedly rich array of observable implications, all consistent with the literature. We directly test our conjecture by formulating a statistical model that include s critical features. Our approach, a version of a "neural network" model, uncovers some interesting structural features of international conflict, and as one evaluative measure, forecasts substantially better than any previous effort. Moreover, this improvement comes at little cost, and it is easy to evaluate whether the model is a statistical improvement over the simpler models commonly used. <br /> <br /> Winner of the Gosnell Prize. See also our response to a published comment on this paper: Beck, Nathaniel; Gary King; and Langche Zeng, "Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Response to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski," American Political Science Review, 98, 2 (May, 2004): 379--389 (Article: <a href= "http://gking.harvard.edu/files/toe-resp.pdf" target="_blank">PDF</a> | Abstract: <a href= "http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/toe-resp-abs.shtml" target="_blank">HTML< /a>), and a related paper King, Gary; Zeng, Langche, "Improving Forecasts of State Failure," World Politics, Vol. 53, No. 4 (July, 2001): 623-58. (Article: <a href= "http://gking.harvard.edu/files/civil.pdf" target="_blank">PDF</a> | Abstract: <a href= "http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/civil-abs.shtml" target="_blank">HTML</a>)<br /> <br /> See also: <a href="http://gking.harvard.edu/category/research-interests/applications/international-conflict" target="_blank">International Conflict</a> |
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Methodology and Processing |
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Sources Statement |
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Data Access |
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Notes: |
This dataset is made available without information on how it can be used. You should communicate with the Contact(s) specified before use. |
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Other Study Description Materials |
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Related Publications |
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Citation |
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Title: |
Beck, Nathaniel, Gary King, and Langche Zeng. 2000. Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture. American Political Science Review 94: 21–36: <a href= "http://j.mp/jXQshM" target="_blank">Link to article</a>. |
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Bibliographic Citation: |
Beck, Nathaniel, Gary King, and Langche Zeng. 2000. Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture. American Political Science Review 94: 21–36: <a href= "http://j.mp/jXQshM" target="_blank">Link to article</a>. |
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File Description--f102661 |
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File: apsr.tab |
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Notes: |
UNF:3:GYFgS808VIybMhSagbiAFw== |
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Data used in this paper |
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File Description--f102662 |
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File: dpost.tab |
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Notes: |
UNF:3:xJ/odAfdyAxftub8CP0oBA== |
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Original "Beck and Tucker, MWPSA 1998" dataset that has information on the variables |
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List of Variables: |
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Variables |
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f102661 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:iW44cCoTr3BmgXc6cgsYhA== |
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f102661 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:+kpHJFwNmlDT6CzSu+WQmw== |
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f102661 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:eJlZzAoo300QAltXm1+2aQ== |
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f102661 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:VnO4JPkPSzgvqiU38gYCGw== |
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f102661 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:X/nQ7m5TlZcDC/xKW1+N9g== |
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f102661 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:u0OCQWV4RGddmjOkEzcmMA== |
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f102661 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:Q5iQqAy7zuM9oK2FDzHEhg== |
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f102661 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:fzT3yjgCT1M6VNT94aJbAg== |
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f102661 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:GQ3fsiqozRc/iOqjmkfGCA== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:fVlClF0gZ9sDPVC4nimpyQ== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:IYNsi6XpH0JBvwl28OJwkQ== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:NWmRlwAPsnz4AszabFxjjw== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:Ovpkw6Cn2xMTwkUTD4KD7Q== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:8K/ct3B3nbV9ORC6vJ+fbg== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:ivsbpL0F/ZulglztzCF6IQ== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:F6Ea4KN54A1KiLPN0kzgbQ== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:XsuO++8FUkzJFGNmcLpaJw== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:44N4a/VE7w35MJHi8dCNJA== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:wvDfNhSxz+MBemR4eO2QEg== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:7trt/HuHz0T1hBIydiXgwg== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:UWSU1RtPhXPj6r2m1CiEJQ== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:khtqdvA3U4q8wxdbfvhb5w== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:umsaFiIWquLZWVfoYU5X1A== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:Pnlb7ZZOnov0725mOeI25g== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:gUj/qgVitPIAMRBcEH4CDQ== |
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f102662 Location: |
Variable Format: numeric Notes: UNF:3:+WgArsGJssPtqwBOHywJfw== |
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Label: |
apsr.dta |
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Text: |
Data used in this paper, Stata data file |
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Notes: |
application/x-stata |
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Label: |
Civil.pdf |
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Text: |
Research notes: Improving Forecasts of State Failure |
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Notes: |
application/pdf |
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Label: |
data.nn.w |
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Text: |
Weights at convergence for the model |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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dpost.do |
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Text: |
File that produces apsr.dta from dpost.dta |
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text/x-stata-syntax; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
dpost.dta |
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Text: |
Original "Beck and Tucker, MWPSA 1998" dataset that has information on the variables, Stata data file |
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Notes: |
application/x-stata |
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Label: |
Improv.pdf |
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Text: |
Article related to this study: Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture |
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Notes: |
application/pdf |
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Label: |
nn.spec |
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Text: |
The bb5 file trained with all 1985 and earlier data and evaluated on the last 4 years' forecasting data |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
nn.x |
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Text: |
Independent variables normalized in ASCII file format |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
nn.y |
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Text: |
Y variables from ASPR data in ASCII format |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
readme |
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Text: |
Detailed information on the data and documentation files |
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Notes: |
text/plain; charset=US-ASCII |
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Label: |
Theory-Evid-Response.pdf |
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Text: |
Response to a published comment on this paper: Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Response to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynavski |
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Notes: |
application/pdf |