Replication Data for: Have Middle Eastern Leaders Learned from the Arab Uprisings? An Arabic Operational Code Approach

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Canbolat, Sercan, 2025, "Replication Data for: Have Middle Eastern Leaders Learned from the Arab Uprisings? An Arabic Operational Code Approach", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LBMZMB, Harvard Dataverse, V1
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Description
How do individual leaders react to major political crises shaking their decision-making authority and challenging their political survival? What do political leaders learn from formative events transpiring on their watch? Riddled with protracted and multidimensional conflicts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a geographical unit where political learning, or the lack thereof, has been more crucial than ever. This study utilizes an actor-specific approach, i.e., operational code analysis, to examine the profiles and learning patterns of three Arab national leaders who have experienced different forms and magnitudes of political crisis in the post-2011 Arab Uprisings: 1) King Abdullah II bin al-Hussein of Jordan; 2) President Bashar al-Assad of Syria; and 3) Emir Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah of Kuwait. The case selection comports, by and large, with most different systems design (MDSD) where an individual leader’s operational code type functions as the independent variable while learning (or unlearning) is the dependent variable. This study’s temporal domain is three-pronged as I compartmentalize leaders’ political beliefs as follows: 1) each leader’s general operational code profile (aggregated) 2) before the Arab Uprisings (starting with the year each studied Arab leader came to power); 3) after the Arab Uprisings (2011-2018). I employ an original Arabic coding scheme for leadership analysis to study a group of understudied MENA leaders in their native language. This study lends to state-of-the-art leadership studies within foreign policy analysis and the broader International Relations discipline. It also carries policy relevance concerning regional and world powers’ foreign policy and military strategies toward the MENA region. (2025-04-20)
Subject Social Sciences
Keyword foreign policy, political beliefs, cooperation, conflict, elite decision-making
Notes Scores for each text file were generated using Profiler Plus version 5.8.4. The summary totals marked "raw" scores are the average of all coded speech files for each leader, for each P1, I1, and P4 variables, also known as master beliefs in the operational code analysis (OCA) research program. For more information, see the Read.me file for "Have Middle Eastern Leaders Learned from the Arab Uprisings" in the "Files" section.
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Appendix for Have Middle Eastern Leaders Learned from the Arab Uprisings.docx
MS Word - 527.9 KB
Published Apr 21, 2025
51 Downloads
MD5: f3481a6b241256bbfc0054bd4eaa68e4
Op-Code Output for Have Middle Eastern Leaders Learned from the Arab Uprisings.xlsx
MS Excel Spreadsheet - 11.3 KB
Published Apr 21, 2025
52 Downloads
MD5: ab7ea3c0cb293e5565c36de3c615b1d8
An MS Excel spreadsheet that shows individual master belief scores for three studied MENA/Arab leaders and the average raw scores for the three leaders as well as those of the average world leader represented by a norming sample.
Read.me file for Have Middle Eastern Leaders Learned from the Arab Uprisings.txt
Plain Text - 738 B
Published Apr 21, 2025
52 Downloads
MD5: 80aefb82878a961112818e05936513ca
A brief note explaining what each column and row in the Op-code output document means, and providing descriptive analysis about the norming sample with references to the main earlier works in the literature.
Preview "Read.me file for Have Middle Eastern Leaders Learned from the Arab Uprisings.txt"
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