Percentual variation of excess deaths in Brazil by state from January to August / 2021 presents a direct and significant statistical correlation with percentual of votes for Bolsonaro by state in the 1st round 2018 election
Objective
All over-mortality values in Brazil are determined by states, monthly from 01/17/31 to 08/31/21. All monthly Brazilian mortality rates are analyzed by state since Jan / 2014. We determined if there is, what type and strength of the statistical evidence-based relationship between the state electoral preference for Bolsonaro in the first round of 2018 and excess deaths in 2021 in the Brazil
Methods
Determining all population indexes from Brasil since Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 yearly and monthly per state : deaths number net, mortality rate, excess of deaths, births, natality rate, annual pop growth, percentage of older than 70 years and total population. IBGE ( Brazilian Institute from Geography and Statistic) and Brazilian Civilian National Registry was the sources, before doing regression analyse, one idependent medical professor was sources, values and formats
27 states, 4 different main Group of states was identified:
Group named (BR) formed per all 27 states, is country Brazil
Group named (17Win2018) formed per 15 states where Bolsonaro win in 2nd round presidential election 2018
Group named (17NOTwin18) former per 11 states where Bolsonaro was 2nd place in 1st round and loosed in 2nd round presidential Brazilian 2018 election
In 17WIN18 group, we separated 3 states where Bolsonaro only was winner in 2nd round, when we exclude this state from group 1, this new more specific group we call (17WIN>50%18) and are formed between 12 states at Bolsonaro has more than 50% of all valid votes in 1st round presidential Brazilian 2018 election.
With public access data from IBGE, Registro Civil , brasil.io and TSE. We determine all most important rates in public heath and population per state in Brazil from June 2017 to May 2021. Births , deaths , population growth rates, mortality rate, natality rate, net excess of deaths, excess of deaths rate and P-scores(variation in % from deaths in one month vs average deaths in 5 years early) are calculate for 27 states and 48 months
Net population, COVID deaths, COVID cases, COVID Mortality rate, COVID Fatality rate, 70y old rate, electors rate, demographic density are calculate for 27 states , 3 groups and 3 years (2019,2020,2021)
Results
States where Bolsonaro win in 2018 with more than 50% has much more deaths net and more excess of deaths with a P-score=71%, with 68% more excess excess mortality rate per 100000 in 2021 then states where he loose in 2018 Analyse of 38 independent variables and 3 possible dependent variables are doing using R program and ANOVA regression methods
