Percentual variation of excess deaths in Brazil by state from January to August / 2021 presents a direct and significant statistical correlation with percentual of votes for Bolsonaro by state in the 1st round 2018 election

Objective

All over-mortality values in Brazil are determined by states, monthly from 01/17/31 to 08/31/21. All monthly Brazilian mortality rates are analyzed by state since Jan / 2014. We determined if there is, what type and strength of the statistical evidence-based relationship between the state electoral preference for Bolsonaro in the first round of 2018 and excess deaths in 2021 in the Brazil

Methods

Determining all population indexes from Brasil since Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 yearly and monthly per state : deaths number net, mortality rate, excess of deaths, births, natality rate, annual pop growth, percentage of older than 70 years and total population. IBGE ( Brazilian Institute from Geography and Statistic) and Brazilian Civilian National Registry was the sources, before doing regression analyse, one idependent medical professor was sources, values and formats

27 states, 4 different main Group of states was identified:

Group named (BR) formed per all 27 states, is country Brazil

Group named (17Win2018) formed per 15 states where Bolsonaro win in 2nd round presidential election 2018

Group named (17NOTwin18) former per 11 states where Bolsonaro was 2nd place in 1st round and loosed in 2nd round presidential Brazilian 2018 election

In 17WIN18 group, we separated 3 states where Bolsonaro only was winner in 2nd round, when we exclude this state from group 1, this new more specific group we call (17WIN>50%18) and are formed between 12 states at Bolsonaro has more than 50% of all valid votes in 1st round presidential Brazilian 2018 election.

With public access data from IBGE, Registro Civil , brasil.io and TSE. We determine all most important rates in public heath and population per state in Brazil from June 2017 to May 2021. Births , deaths , population growth rates, mortality rate, natality rate, net excess of deaths, excess of deaths rate and P-scores(variation in % from deaths in one month vs average deaths in 5 years early) are calculate for 27 states and 48 months

Net population, COVID deaths, COVID cases, COVID Mortality rate, COVID Fatality rate, 70y old rate, electors rate, demographic density are calculate for 27 states , 3 groups and 3 years (2019,2020,2021)

Results

States where Bolsonaro win in 2018 with more than 50% has much more deaths net and more excess of deaths with a P-score=71%, with 68% more excess excess mortality rate per 100000 in 2021 then states where he loose in 2018 Analyse of 38 independent variables and 3 possible dependent variables are doing using R program and ANOVA regression methods

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11 to 20 of 34 Results
Eric Grossi Morato researchs dataset(UFMG)
Jul 22, 2022
g40covid19.tab
Jul 22, 2022 - All COVID-19 most important epidemiological statistics indices from 40 largest economies in the world G40
Tabular Data - 10.3 KB - 40 Variables, 40 Observations - UNF:6:pbXTIKBKMhYwgy8O3BcmyQ==
40 largest economiesBrazilCountry comparisonCOVIDCOVID Brazil catastropheCOVID-19DataG40GDPMortalityMortality ratetotal casestotal deaths per million
All most important COVID epidemiological indices Dataset, from the 40 largest economies in the world.
piorTXmortCOVIDmundo.png
piorTXmortCOVIDmundo.png
Jul 22, 2022 - All COVID-19 most important epidemiological statistics indices from 40 largest economies in the world G40
PNG Image - 254.5 KB - MD5: 7652bf3d9549fa2988e8b2d8c81cacfe
40 largest economiesBrazilChartCountry comparisonCOVIDCOVID-19DataDocumentationG40Mortality rate
Among the 40 largest economies in the world, BRAZIL is still the DEADLIEST country in the pandemic response! 3Even being the 23rd in % of elderly, 26th in average temperature in winter and 10th in accessibility/permeability of medical care (free SUS and 99% municipalities)
Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
Feb 14, 2022
Grossi Morato, Eric, 2021, "Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/NFL2YW, Harvard Dataverse, V9, UNF:6:MxfEOr9kPF5JIIJ37y5ZOA== [fileUNF]
The excess of monthly deaths by state in Brazil, mainly in 2021, point to an unprecedented mortuary catastrophe in Brazil How has the government of Brazil acted and has acted to protect its citizens from the most important, intense and deadly event of all time, in these 521 years of Brazilian history? How great is the risk of death that its inhabit...
Var%excessDeathsjan18toAug21BR.tab
Feb 14, 2022 - Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
Tabular Data - 34.1 KB - 41 Variables, 55 Observations - UNF:6:DaB2pj9pHHtpusvHOC15+Q==
BrazilCOVID-19Dataexcess death variationExcess mortality rateMortalityMortalityRateP-scoreper monthsper state
Variation in Excess of deaths (P-score) in Brazil per state Jan/18 to Aug/21- P-score % variation Excess Mortality monthly - Geodata state files
Total Deaths, Crude Mortality rate in Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 per state with geojson and flag image links
Total Deaths, Crude Mortality rate in Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 per state with geojson and flag image links
Nov 14, 2021
Grossi Morato, Eric, 2021, "Total Deaths, Crude Mortality rate in Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 per state with geojson and flag image links", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/6LHCJ8, Harvard Dataverse, V7, UNF:6:ja4q82/K3FZJ2lW86vCBTQ== [fileUNF]
Net total Deaths per state Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 Two files with all net deaths (no traumatic) and general mortality rate in Brazil per state All mortality rates was per 100000 and was computed with population of year (2014 to 2021) Source: IBGE, SIM/MS SUS and Registro Civil Arpen Portal from Brazil All geographic variables was a geojson and...
MORTEStotaisporUFBRA14a2021.png
MORTEStotaisporUFBRA14a2021.png
Nov 14, 2021 - Total Deaths, Crude Mortality rate in Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 per state with geojson and flag image links
PNG Image - 1.3 MB - MD5: 9c267dacda532051a232c5248fd051ea
201520162017201820192021BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilCOVID-19crude deathsImageper monthper StatePlot Charts imageTotal DeathsTotal Deaths UF
Plot Charts from total deaths per state monthly in Brazil. 30 monthly timeline charts, 27 states and 3 group of states: - All 27 states (BR country) - 13 states where Bolsonaro has more then 50% of votes in 2018 - 11 states where Bolsonaro lose 2018 election. All charts shows 3 annual lines: - Gray line. Average monthly deaths 2015 to 2019 - Blu...
Dataset and statistical analysis from mortality rate, excess deaths, annual population growth, COVID deaths per state in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 and votes for Bolsonaro in 1st round 2018
Dataset and statistical analysis from mortality rate, excess deaths, annual population growth, COVID deaths per state in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 and votes for Bolsonaro in 1st round 2018
Nov 14, 2021
Grossi Morato, Eric, 2021, "Dataset and statistical analysis from mortality rate, excess deaths, annual population growth, COVID deaths per state in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 and votes for Bolsonaro in 1st round 2018", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/RKUEZC, Harvard Dataverse, V8, UNF:6:Nh2ZBSjNehYVYldg4Ni5bw== [fileUNF]
Dataset from total deaths, excess deaths, mortality rates and population growing rate per state monthly in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 Brazil Excess deaths variation per state in 2021 was a direct and statistic significant correlation with percent of votes in Bolsonaro presidential election 2018 States where Bolsonaro win with more then 50% in...
ExcessDeathsBR21perStatevsBolsonaroVotes.jpg
ExcessDeathsBR21perStatevsBolsonaroVotes.jpg
Nov 11, 2021 - Dataset and statistical analysis from mortality rate, excess deaths, annual population growth, COVID deaths per state in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 and votes for Bolsonaro in 1st round 2018
JPEG Image - 1.4 MB - MD5: 8418907fa1cae5bc11f4c6ac9b7e3599
2018 Election votesagainst lockdownAnti ciência anti masksanti scienceanti vaccineAnti vacinaatittude BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilChart MortalityRate BrazilCodeComportamentoCOVID-19DataDocumentationefeito Bolsonaroexample actsexcess deathExcesso de mortesextrema direitafar rightGeospatialgoverno anti ciência Harmful behaviorideologia e COVIDideology in COVIDImage ChartMortalityMortes por estadoNegacionismo P-scoreper yearPlot groups chartPopulationStates BrazilTaxa de mortalidadeTime seriesUFVariation in Excess DeathsvotesVotos Bolsonaro
Chart plot shows variation in % of EXCESS deaths monthly from Average 2015 to 2019 , 2020 and Jan to Aug 2021 from all 27 states from Brazil and BR + 2 groups of states ( 1. 13 States where Bolsonaro has more then 50% of votes in 2018 election and 2. 11 States where Bolsonaro lose 2018 election).
TotalDeathsStatesBRJan14toAug21.tab
Nov 11, 2021 - Total Deaths, Crude Mortality rate in Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 per state with geojson and flag image links
Tabular Data - 51.8 KB - 154 Variables, 37 Observations - UNF:6:xV+u8LehbEhPlV8zaKzmVw==
2014201520162017201820192021BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilCodeCOVID-19crude deathsDatadeaths per dayDocumentationfar rightFlag imageGeoJsonMortality AbsoluteMortality ratenegationismper monthper Statescience denialTotal DeathsUF
Time line series Total Deaths per months Jan 14 to Aug 21 per state, Total Deaths annually 2014 to 2021, Average Total Deaths 14 to 17, Average Deaths 14 to 18 and 15 to 19. 8 months Total deaths 2014 to 2021. Brazil and 3 groups of states, 1. States where Bolsonaro win election 2018, 2. states where Bolsonaro lose election 2018 and 3. States wher...
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