Percentual variation of excess deaths in Brazil by state from January to August / 2021 presents a direct and significant statistical correlation with percentual of votes for Bolsonaro by state in the 1st round 2018 election

Objective

All over-mortality values in Brazil are determined by states, monthly from 01/17/31 to 08/31/21. All monthly Brazilian mortality rates are analyzed by state since Jan / 2014. We determined if there is, what type and strength of the statistical evidence-based relationship between the state electoral preference for Bolsonaro in the first round of 2018 and excess deaths in 2021 in the Brazil

Methods

Determining all population indexes from Brasil since Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 yearly and monthly per state : deaths number net, mortality rate, excess of deaths, births, natality rate, annual pop growth, percentage of older than 70 years and total population. IBGE ( Brazilian Institute from Geography and Statistic) and Brazilian Civilian National Registry was the sources, before doing regression analyse, one idependent medical professor was sources, values and formats

27 states, 4 different main Group of states was identified:

Group named (BR) formed per all 27 states, is country Brazil

Group named (17Win2018) formed per 15 states where Bolsonaro win in 2nd round presidential election 2018

Group named (17NOTwin18) former per 11 states where Bolsonaro was 2nd place in 1st round and loosed in 2nd round presidential Brazilian 2018 election

In 17WIN18 group, we separated 3 states where Bolsonaro only was winner in 2nd round, when we exclude this state from group 1, this new more specific group we call (17WIN>50%18) and are formed between 12 states at Bolsonaro has more than 50% of all valid votes in 1st round presidential Brazilian 2018 election.

With public access data from IBGE, Registro Civil , brasil.io and TSE. We determine all most important rates in public heath and population per state in Brazil from June 2017 to May 2021. Births , deaths , population growth rates, mortality rate, natality rate, net excess of deaths, excess of deaths rate and P-scores(variation in % from deaths in one month vs average deaths in 5 years early) are calculate for 27 states and 48 months

Net population, COVID deaths, COVID cases, COVID Mortality rate, COVID Fatality rate, 70y old rate, electors rate, demographic density are calculate for 27 states , 3 groups and 3 years (2019,2020,2021)

Results

States where Bolsonaro win in 2018 with more than 50% has much more deaths net and more excess of deaths with a P-score=71%, with 68% more excess excess mortality rate per 100000 in 2021 then states where he loose in 2018 Analyse of 38 independent variables and 3 possible dependent variables are doing using R program and ANOVA regression methods

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11 to 20 of 27 Results
Var%excessDeathsjan18toAug21BR.tab
Feb 14, 2022 - Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
Tabular Data - 34.1 KB - 41 Variables, 55 Observations - UNF:6:DaB2pj9pHHtpusvHOC15+Q==
BrazilCOVID-19Dataexcess death variationExcess mortality rateMortalityMortalityRateP-scoreper monthsper state
Variation in Excess of deaths (P-score) in Brazil per state Jan/18 to Aug/21- P-score % variation Excess Mortality monthly - Geodata state files
MORTEStotaisporUFBRA14a2021.png
MORTEStotaisporUFBRA14a2021.png
Nov 14, 2021 - Total Deaths, Crude Mortality rate in Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 per state with geojson and flag image links
PNG Image - 1.3 MB - MD5: 9c267dacda532051a232c5248fd051ea
201520162017201820192021BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilCOVID-19crude deathsImageper monthper StatePlot Charts imageTotal DeathsTotal Deaths UF
Plot Charts from total deaths per state monthly in Brazil. 30 monthly timeline charts, 27 states and 3 group of states: - All 27 states (BR country) - 13 states where Bolsonaro has more then 50% of votes in 2018 - 11 states where Bolsonaro lose 2018 election. All charts shows 3 annual lines: - Gray line. Average monthly deaths 2015 to 2019 - Blu...
ExcessDeathsBR21perStatevsBolsonaroVotes.jpg
ExcessDeathsBR21perStatevsBolsonaroVotes.jpg
Nov 11, 2021 - Dataset and statistical analysis from mortality rate, excess deaths, annual population growth, COVID deaths per state in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 and votes for Bolsonaro in 1st round 2018
JPEG Image - 1.4 MB - MD5: 8418907fa1cae5bc11f4c6ac9b7e3599
2018 Election votesagainst lockdownAnti ciência anti masksanti scienceanti vaccineAnti vacinaatittude BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilChart MortalityRate BrazilCodeComportamentoCOVID-19DataDocumentationefeito Bolsonaroexample actsexcess deathExcesso de mortesextrema direitafar rightGeospatialgoverno anti ciência Harmful behaviorideologia e COVIDideology in COVIDImage ChartMortalityMortes por estadoNegacionismo P-scoreper yearPlot groups chartPopulationStates BrazilTaxa de mortalidadeTime seriesUFVariation in Excess DeathsvotesVotos Bolsonaro
Chart plot shows variation in % of EXCESS deaths monthly from Average 2015 to 2019 , 2020 and Jan to Aug 2021 from all 27 states from Brazil and BR + 2 groups of states ( 1. 13 States where Bolsonaro has more then 50% of votes in 2018 election and 2. 11 States where Bolsonaro lose 2018 election).
TotalDeathsStatesBRJan14toAug21.tab
Nov 11, 2021 - Total Deaths, Crude Mortality rate in Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 per state with geojson and flag image links
Tabular Data - 51.8 KB - 154 Variables, 37 Observations - UNF:6:xV+u8LehbEhPlV8zaKzmVw==
2014201520162017201820192021BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilCodeCOVID-19crude deathsDatadeaths per dayDocumentationfar rightFlag imageGeoJsonMortality AbsoluteMortality ratenegationismper monthper Statescience denialTotal DeathsUF
Time line series Total Deaths per months Jan 14 to Aug 21 per state, Total Deaths annually 2014 to 2021, Average Total Deaths 14 to 17, Average Deaths 14 to 18 and 15 to 19. 8 months Total deaths 2014 to 2021. Brazil and 3 groups of states, 1. States where Bolsonaro win election 2018, 2. states where Bolsonaro lose election 2018 and 3. States wher...
AllDeathsBRstateJan14toAug21Monthly.tab
Oct 9, 2021 - Total Deaths, Crude Mortality rate in Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 per state with geojson and flag image links
Tabular Data - 42.0 KB - 36 Variables, 103 Observations - UNF:6:UxTrNIvbCje/drHH8AzqhQ==
20192021BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilCOVID-19Datadeaths per dayMortality Absoluteper monthper StateTotal DeathsUF
Deaths net in Brazil per state from Jan/2014 to Aug/2021+ Total Brazil + 2 groups of States(UF) (group 17win18(n=16) - where Bolsonaro was >50% votes in 1st round 2018 Presidential Election and group 17notwin18(n=11))
Var%excessDeathsjan18toAug21BR.tab
Oct 7, 2021 - Dataset and statistical analysis from mortality rate, excess deaths, annual population growth, COVID deaths per state in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 and votes for Bolsonaro in 1st round 2018
Tabular Data - 34.1 KB - 41 Variables, 55 Observations - UNF:6:O+LvQqlIu0UsbLvyOzAisQ==
2018 Election votesagainst lockdownAnti ciência anti masksanti scienceanti vaccineAnti vacinaatittude BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilComportamentoCOVID-19Dataefeito Bolsonaroexcess deathExcesso de mortesextrema direitafar rightGeospatialgoverno anti ciência Harmful behaviorideologia e COVIDideology in COVIDMortalityMortes por estadoNegacionismo P-scorePopulationStates BrazilTime seriesUFVariation in Excess DeathsvotesVotos Bolsonaro
Monthly Excess deaths variation in % per state of Brazil Jan/18 to Aug/21, country and 3 groups of states: 17WIN18 (15states+DC where Bolsonaro win 2018 election), 17WIN>50%18 (12states+DC where Bolsonaro was >50% valid votes in 1st round 2018) and 17notWIN18 (11 states where Bolsonaro not win at 2018) added GeoJSONfiles per state and geospatial da...
mortalityratemonthly.png
Aug 25, 2021 - Dataset and statistical analysis from mortality rate, excess deaths, annual population growth, COVID deaths per state in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 and votes for Bolsonaro in 1st round 2018
PNG Image - 43.2 MB - MD5: 8467ffa5479730fc88e5dcebb6b0af3e
2018 Election votesagainst lockdownAnti ciência anti masksanti scienceanti vaccineAnti vacinaatittude BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilChart MortalityRate BrazilComportamentoCOVID-19Dataefeito Bolsonaroexample actsextrema direitafar rightgoverno anti ciência Harmful behaviorideologia e COVIDideology in COVIDImage ChartMortalityMortes por estadoNegacionismo per yearPopulationStates BrazilTaxa de mortalidadeUFvotesVotos Bolsonaro
Spiral chart from dataset MORTALITY rate monthly per 100000/year Brazil from jan/18 to Jul/21 Brazil 27 states and 2 dystints groups,one from 11states where Bolsonaro lose 1st round election 2018 and other from 13 states here Bolsonaro win with more then 50% in 1st round 2018 election
COVIDBRAExcessMortalityVSBolsonaroVotes.csv
Aug 16, 2021 - Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
Comma Separated Values - 25.4 KB - MD5: cabbe6bc268f3ce7cf7bcc1488eab26c
BirthsBRJan14toJun21perState.tab
Aug 4, 2021 - Births Jan/2017 to May/2021 per State Brazil
Tabular Data - 26.1 KB - 35 Variables, 92 Observations - UNF:6:YPdHu5/DokXgSVQ8yIWTmQ==
2018 electionBirthsBolsonaroBrazilNatality Rateper monthper stateper UFTotal Birthsvotes
Births net jan/2014 to Jun/2021 per state from Brazil
PopBRStates14to21.tab
Aug 4, 2021 - Dataset and statistical analysis from mortality rate, excess deaths, annual population growth, COVID deaths per state in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 and votes for Bolsonaro in 1st round 2018
Tabular Data - 3.3 KB - 33 Variables, 9 Observations - UNF:6:K1DAGrRsrlSzNzN/CsZnmw==
2018 Election votesBolsonaroBrazilCodeCOVID-19per yearPopulationStates BrazilGeospatialTime Series
Total population Brasil per State per year + 2 groups states (where Bolsonaro votes >50% and where Bolsonaro lose in 2018 Election) + Total Brazil - 2014 to 2021
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