Percentual variation of excess deaths in Brazil by state from January to August / 2021 presents a direct and significant statistical correlation with percentual of votes for Bolsonaro by state in the 1st round 2018 election

Objective

All over-mortality values in Brazil are determined by states, monthly from 01/17/31 to 08/31/21. All monthly Brazilian mortality rates are analyzed by state since Jan / 2014. We determined if there is, what type and strength of the statistical evidence-based relationship between the state electoral preference for Bolsonaro in the first round of 2018 and excess deaths in 2021 in the Brazil

Methods

Determining all population indexes from Brasil since Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 yearly and monthly per state : deaths number net, mortality rate, excess of deaths, births, natality rate, annual pop growth, percentage of older than 70 years and total population. IBGE ( Brazilian Institute from Geography and Statistic) and Brazilian Civilian National Registry was the sources, before doing regression analyse, one idependent medical professor was sources, values and formats

27 states, 4 different main Group of states was identified:

Group named (BR) formed per all 27 states, is country Brazil

Group named (17Win2018) formed per 15 states where Bolsonaro win in 2nd round presidential election 2018

Group named (17NOTwin18) former per 11 states where Bolsonaro was 2nd place in 1st round and loosed in 2nd round presidential Brazilian 2018 election

In 17WIN18 group, we separated 3 states where Bolsonaro only was winner in 2nd round, when we exclude this state from group 1, this new more specific group we call (17WIN>50%18) and are formed between 12 states at Bolsonaro has more than 50% of all valid votes in 1st round presidential Brazilian 2018 election.

With public access data from IBGE, Registro Civil , brasil.io and TSE. We determine all most important rates in public heath and population per state in Brazil from June 2017 to May 2021. Births , deaths , population growth rates, mortality rate, natality rate, net excess of deaths, excess of deaths rate and P-scores(variation in % from deaths in one month vs average deaths in 5 years early) are calculate for 27 states and 48 months

Net population, COVID deaths, COVID cases, COVID Mortality rate, COVID Fatality rate, 70y old rate, electors rate, demographic density are calculate for 27 states , 3 groups and 3 years (2019,2020,2021)

Results

States where Bolsonaro win in 2018 with more than 50% has much more deaths net and more excess of deaths with a P-score=71%, with 68% more excess excess mortality rate per 100000 in 2021 then states where he loose in 2018 Analyse of 38 independent variables and 3 possible dependent variables are doing using R program and ANOVA regression methods

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21 to 27 of 27 Results
ExcessDeathsBRCOVID.png
Aug 3, 2021 - Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
PNG Image - 5.4 MB - MD5: 0f8a8a0dd555c8341f2f7a7b225564a7
20182018 election201920202021anti ciência anti máscara anti vacinaBolsonaroBolsonaro votosBrazilcatástrofe brasileiraChart imageCodecompara estadoscomportamentocomportamento mortalCOVID-19DataDeaths total numbereleicaoeleição 18estados bolsonaroexcess death variationExcess DeathsExcess Mortalityexcesso de mortesideologiaJan19 to Jun21mortalidadeMortalitynegacionismo P-scoreper monthper monthsper statepor estadoSanitary government Actionstotal de mortes Total Deaths crudeUFVariation%ExcessDeaths21vsAvg15to19Votesvotos 17
Graphic representation of ExcessDeaths in Brazil per month since Jan/2019 to Jun/2021
ExcessDeathsStatesBRJan19toJun21.tab
Aug 3, 2021 - Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
Tabular Data - 9.0 KB - 38 Variables, 31 Observations - UNF:6:WbxBvqGVErBFt4Waz2E5Wg==
2018 election201920202021BolsonaroBrazilCOVID-19DataExcess DeathsExcess Mortalityper monthsper stateVotes
Excess Deaths per months per states in Brazil since Jan/2019 to Jun/2021
TotalDeathsBR6m19to21.tab
Aug 3, 2021 - Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
Tabular Data - 2.3 KB - 38 Variables, 6 Observations - UNF:6:Nkwt4OfL8JgNLPyPz+g0XQ==
201920202021BolsonaroBrazilCOVID-19DataDeaths total numberper monthsper stateVotes
Total number of deaths in Brazil in half year - 6 months since 2019 to 2021 per state + 2 groups of states (11 states that Bolsonaro lose in 2018 1st round election and 16 where Bolsonaro win at 2019 1st round election) - They have a opposite response to COVID pandemic, in all epidemiological indexes the group of 11 states going better vs the other...
TotalDeathsBRperStateJan14toJun21.tab
Aug 3, 2021 - Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
Tabular Data - 30.1 KB - 38 Variables, 129 Observations - UNF:6:wDw3Jzy5gZD6mfI0EffpLQ==
201420152016201720182018 election201920202021BolsonaroBrazilCOVID-19DataDeaths total numberDocumentationper monthsper stateVotes
Total deaths in Brazil per state per months 2014 to May 2021 + deaths in group of states where Bolsonaro win 1st round 2018 and group of states where Bolsonaro lose in 1st round 2018
MortalityRateper100000BR jan18toMay21.png
Jul 10, 2021 - Mortality net, Mortality rate, Excess deaths and Variation of Excess deaths in Brazil per state Jan 2014 to Aug 2021
PNG Image - 6.5 MB - MD5: d9872e3e63b149dda7f1c8053200772f
BrazilCodeCOVID-19DataDocumentationMortalityRate
Chart Image show General Mortality rater per month in Brazil from Jan 2018 to May 2021 per 100000
MortalityRateBraJan14toMay21.tab
Jun 23, 2021 - Total Deaths, Crude Mortality rate in Brazil Jan/2014 to Aug/2021 per state with geojson and flag image links
Tabular Data - 42.6 KB - 34 Variables, 96 Observations - UNF:6:W6g282xJSpfsy7fjM7o4ng==
2014201520162017201820192021BrazilDataMortality rateper monthUF
Net mortality rate per 100000 per month in Brasil per state from Jan. 2014 to May. 2021
UFBRAvotes17xCOVIDnew.tab
Jun 23, 2021 - Dataset and statistical analysis from mortality rate, excess deaths, annual population growth, COVID deaths per state in Brazil from jan/2014 to aug/2021 and votes for Bolsonaro in 1st round 2018
Tabular Data - 43.5 KB - 110 Variables, 86 Observations - UNF:6:5RvFqZK3zOsq0d/NagkjPQ==
2018 Election votesagainst lockdownAnti ciência anti masksanti scienceanti vaccineAnti vacinaatittude BolsonaroBolsonaro votesBrazilComportamentoCOVID-19DataDocumentationefeito Bolsonaroexample actsexcess deathExcesso de mortesextrema direitafar rightgoverno anti ciência Harmful behaviorideologia e COVIDideology in COVIDMortalityMortes por estadoNegacionismo P-scoreper yearPopulationStates BrazilTaxa de mortalidadeUFvotesVotos Bolsonaro
Tabular dataset with most important epimiologic values in mortality, natality from Brasil per state in 2021 vs electoral results and Bolsonaro votes per state in 1st round 2018 election. We show + 2 groups of states (11 states that Bolsonaro was lose in 2018 1st round election and others 16 where Bolsonaro win at 2019 1st round election) - They hav...
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