31 to 40 of 69 Results
Gelman, Andrew; King, Gary; Boscardin, John, 2007, "Replication data for: Estimating the Probability of Events That have Never Occurred: When Is Your Vote Decisive?", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/0FT6ZL, Harvard Dataverse, V4, UNF:3:ORDulVH6qEb4lsCyDn5W3A== [fileUNF]
Researchers sometimes argue that statisticians have little to contribute when few realizations of the process being estimated are observed. We show that this argument is incorrect even in the extreme situation of estimating the probabilities of events so rare that they have never occurred. We show how statistical forecasting models allow us to use... |
King, Gary; Benjamin, Gerald, 2007, "Replication data for: The Stability of Partisan Identification in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1789-1984", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/2RXLLP, Harvard Dataverse, V5
It is a basic premise of this study that politicians who switch parties are likely to do so when they are ideologically out of line with their current political party and more in agreement with the other party. Nor do we quarrel with the notion that sometimes the switch may also be related to electoral incentives. The problem lies not in these conc... |
Beck, Nathaniel; King, Gary; Zeng, Langche, 2007, "Replication data for: Theory and Evidence in International Conflict: A Response to de Marchi, Gelpi, and Grynaviski", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/S7JLEL, Harvard Dataverse, V4, UNF:3:N0bEAswAlPPVXCxPOZYyqw== [fileUNF]
We thank Scott de Marchi, Christopher Gelpi, and Jeffrey Grynaviski (2003; hereinafter dGG) for their careful attention to our work (Beck, King, and Zeng, 2000; hereinafter BKZ) and for raising some important methodological issues that we agree deserve readers' attention. We are pleased that dGG's analyses are consistent with the theoretical conjec... |
King, Gary; Zeng, Langche, 2007, "Replication data for: When Can History be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EK886K, Harvard Dataverse, V4, UNF:3:DaYlT6QSX9r0D50ye+tXpA== [fileUNF]
Inferences about counterfactuals are essential for prediction, answering "what if" questions, and estimating causal effects. However, when the counterfactuals posed are too far from the data at hand, conclusions drawn from well-specified statistical analyses become based on speculation and convenient but indefensible model assumptions rather than e... |
Ho, Daniel E.; Imai, Kosuke; King, Gary; Stuart, Elizabeth A., 2007, "Replication data for: Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/RWUY8G, Harvard Dataverse, V5, UNF:3:QV0mYCd8eV+mJgWDnYct5g== [fileUNF]
Although published works rarely include causal estimates from more than a few model specifications, authors usually choose the presented estimates from numerous trial runs readers never see. Given the often large variation in estimates across choices of control variables, functional forms, and other modeling assumptions, how can researchers ensure... |
Aug 20, 2014
King, Gary, 2007, "Replication data for: A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/XXGY0B, Harvard Dataverse, V5, UNF:3:DRWozWd89+vNLO7lY2AHbg== [fileUNF]
Preface from the book: In this book, I present a solution to the ecological inference problem: a method of inferring individual behavior from aggregate data that works in practice. Ecological inference is the process of using aggregate (i.e., "ecological'') data to infer discrete individual-level relationships of interest when individual-level data... |
Katz, Jonathan; King, Gary, 2007, "Replication data for: A Statistical Model of Multiparty Electoral Data", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/NDS9AT, Harvard Dataverse, V4, UNF:3:3A6gC0ispQT2LLLLtrJc9w== [fileUNF]
We propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analagous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon e... |
Gelman, Andrew; King, Gary, 2007, "Replication data for: Unified Method of Evaluating Electoral Systems and Redistricting Plans: United States House of Representatives and Ohio State Legislature", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MEJOPN, Harvard Dataverse, V4, UNF:3:Fi01DWj4Sx+0ZEOEo4TOXA== [fileUNF]
We derive a unified statistical method with which one can produce substantially improved definitions and estimates of almost any feature of two-party electoral systems that can be defined based on district vote shares. Our single method enables one to calculate more efficient estimates, with more trustworthy assessments of their uncertainty, than e... |
Ansolabehere, Stephen; King, Gary, 2007, "Replication data for: Measuring the Consequences of Delegate Selection Rules in Presidential Nominations", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/AJL7ZZ, Harvard Dataverse, V5, UNF:3:OdFPcQcvfO5hc3WJ5ty8vQ== [fileUNF]
Abstract: In this paper, we formalize existing normative criteria used to judge presidential selection contests by modeling the translation of citizen votes in primaries and caucuses into delegates to the national party conventions. We use a statistical model that enables us to separate the form of electoral responsiveness in presidential selection... |
King, Gary; Lowe, Will, 2008, "10 Million International Dyadic Events", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/BTMQA0, Harvard Dataverse, V5, UNF:3:dSE0bsQK2o6xXlxeaDEhcg== [fileUNF]
When the Palestinians launch a mortar attack into Israel, the Israeli army does not wait until the end of the calendar year to react. Yet, most modern data collections are aggregated to the month or year. The data available here include almost 10 million individual events, each coded to the exact day they occur or become known. Each event is summar... |
