The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent Coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to many emerging economies’ new consuming class. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers in the past decades. We propose a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies’ income distribution, credit availability, and access to the internet. In the second step, we inspect the air travel demand drivers' plunge drivers since the pandemics, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. Controlling for the potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of the COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short-distance, and low-density, routes are among the most impacted airline markets. We find some evidence that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with one percent higher social inclusion is associated with 0.153 to 0.166 percent more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis.
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Apr 8, 2021
Oliveira, Alessandro V.M., 2021, "Replication Data for: Testing the differentiated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel demand according to social inclusion", https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KERQ9S, Harvard Dataverse, V3, UNF:6:zDYUL+BBYyCYVwyCBam+rw== [fileUNF]
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